Eric from the netherlands
2.7K posts
@ValueEric
Started investing in november 2020: Profit nov 2020- dec 2021: 245% 2022: 47% 2023: 42% 2024: 17% 2025: 54% Ambition to become a full time investor.
US oil just posted its largest weekly gain since records began in 1982. Up 34.5 percent in five trading sessions. WTI blew through $92 a barrel on Thursday, adding twelve dollars in nine hours. What the market is calling a short squeeze is actually a price discovery event for a world that just lost twenty percent of its petroleum supply and has no mechanism to get it back on the timeline traders are pricing. The airline index tells the story the oil chart only implies. US carrier stocks are down 22 percent from last month’s highs. Bear market territory in eight trading days. Deutsche Bank published a note comparing current jet fuel crack spreads to the 2005 hurricane spike that bankrupted Delta and Northwest Airlines. The crack spread sits between $85 and $95 a barrel. Deutsche Bank’s warning was specific: absent near term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft. The Dow dropped 1,500 points this week. Goldman Sachs estimates a sustained move to $100 oil would slow global growth by 0.4 percentage points and add half a point to a full point of inflation worldwide. The Federal Reserve meets on March 18 with an impossible mandate: energy driven inflation demanding tighter policy while a growth shock demands looser policy. There is no rate decision that is correct in both dimensions simultaneously. Here is the part the price action has not absorbed. This is not 1973. In 1973 the oil embargo was a political act reversed by a political decision. This is not 1990. In 1990 the supply disruption was ended by military force. In 2026 the supply disruption was caused by the withdrawal of commercial reinsurance from the Strait of Hormuz, and reinsurance withdrawal does not respond to political declarations or military demonstrations. Seven P&I clubs cancelled war risk coverage effective March 5. The DFC announced a $20 billion backstop on March 6. JPMorgan estimates the actual exposure gap at $352 billion. The backstop covers less than six percent of the insured value at risk. The ships have not moved. Oil futures are pricing a 30 to 60 day resolution. The reinsurance mechanism requires months of verified safe maritime conditions, actuarial recalculation under a new geopolitical baseline, and sufficient aggregate capitalization before underwriters will restore Gulf coverage at commercially viable rates. The gap between the market implied timeline and the mechanism implied timeline is the most significant positioning opportunity currently visible across asset classes. The 34.5 percent weekly gain is not the shock. The shock is that the gain reflects the market beginning to understand the mechanism but not yet pricing its full duration. Every prior energy disruption in modern history was resolved by either a political reversal or a military operation. This one requires the rebuilding of a financial architecture that seven letters from seven insurance offices in London dismantled in 72 hours. Markets are pricing a spike. The mechanism describes a plateau. The difference between those two shapes across a forward curve is where the real money moves. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
There are about 465 Jewish billionaires worldwide, with a combined net worth of roughly $2.66 trillion. Approximately 18 to 25% of America’s billionaires are Jewish. Here is the secret behind Jewish wealth.
I think people need colors to understand things.😹 The starship Enterprise is currently in the 4X bingo zone ($86 silver and $5200 gold).🎲♠️🎯 $SAM.TO
Tharisa making a lot of cash on Rhodium #ths $ths.l
