Tim Quast

Today is a lesson on machine-readable data. Truth Social data are machine-readable and flow straight to autonomous OMS/EMS. Statements by Iran denying what was said on Truth Social are NOT machine-readable and flowing to OMS/EMS.

@ajwdct I saw some of that in Morningstar data, Alan, but it was more than offset by sector inflows, it appeared to me? I think the market is so full of forms of delta and gamma hedging that you can't believe fund flows data.

@_TimQuast There's been huge net selling of stock market index ETFs. SPY & QQQs have seen combined outflows of -$64 billion over the last three months, the most on record. Not even the 2020 pandemic or March-April 2025 sell-off saw such significant outflows. More at fiendbear.com

This week's last data view is $SPY vs its underlying patterns of #Passive flows (closet-indexing with SPY, models using it as a substitute for a stock basket). The market goes as flows go. They converged to nil at opex and index rebalances this week. A bottom. Or a cliff.

@Michellewrs @Cboe Rarely do they. Less than 10% of volume is conventional stock-picking. Passives dominate. Arbitrage prices stocks.

@_TimQuast @Cboe Agreed. Price movements don’t always reflect fundamentals anymore.

Reminder: The #stockmarket is a data network. With kudos to @CBOE for this summary of today's trading - 53% on stock exchanges, 47% at ATS's. At 12.5%, the Nasdaq primary is largest today, with NYSE Arca #2 at 11.1%. It's a wildly fragmented arbitrage fest.

@Stephanie_Link Stephanie, money managers always talk about timing, naturally. What matters to investors is when they NEED the money. Retirement should not depend on risk assets that can lose a third or half their value right when people retire.

If you sold on Liberation Day – you missed 34% recovery in $SPX If you sold on Silicon Valley collapse spring 2023 – you missed 78% in $SPX If you sold on Covid in spring 2020 – you missed 198% recovery in $SPX

Here's a replay of yesterday's live EDGE discussion ahead of today's quad-witching and index rebalances: youtu.be/tq8S75nIk9w?si… via @YouTube

Simple way to use @EdgeStructure Demand/Supply data for exits and entries. This is my #homebuilders portfolio (ahead of weak starts today). Demand peaked at Feb expirations and has fallen to 1.0/10.0. Exit at the vertical line (drop below 5.0). Don't return till Supply falls.

@realwallyg @Stephanie_Link I will readily admit that I miss the Specialist days (even though y'all were for a time making money hand over fist!).

@_TimQuast @Stephanie_Link I worked on the Specialist side at the New York Stock Exchange, watched it suffer until the end

Did some research today to find new and interesting information about great investors: Peter Lynch average return from 1977-1990 grew 29.2% beating out the great Warren Buffett at 20% - both incredible longevity. What strikes me about Lynch: fundamentals matter more than timing.

We've got a lot going on today and here's another. @SECGov is considering ending mandatory quarterly reporting. Our thoughts: modernir.com/four-to-two/

Ahead of the #FOMC meeting and $VIX resets slamming into each other today, does anybody remember this? youtube.com/watch?v=TDaFwn…

Investors: Beware. #Volatility is about 3% in $SPX stocks. If benchmarks rise 1.5%, that's just money at the midpoint. #Options expire Wed-Fri w/ $VIX resets as Jay Powell speaks Wed. Next Monday, new options trade. Broad Sentiment is the worst since April 2025.

In case you missed #PremarketPrep today: youtu.be/Kvs9OhOLm8U

@BendoverFolks @Spus @TripleDTrader Thank you for the kind words, Alex! It was fast and furious all right! ;-)

@_TimQuast @Spus @TripleDTrader You were awesome this morning on PMP. Thanks for bringing it fast and furious. FANTASTIC.....

I'll be with my PreMarketPrep friends today at 8:35 AM ET, and I'll show you what all the money in the market is doing -- and no doubt do some #tickertime. Tune in live and bring your questions! @spus @TripleDTrader youtube.com/live/2TlPFORgN…

@greentraderjoe Great question, Joe. I do not know. ETFs are like currencies: The supply keeps increasing and purchasing power declines. As Herb Stein said, "If something cannot last forever, it will stop." But expanding currency supplies can sustain mispricing for a long time.

@_TimQuast Does the price of SPY eventually have to reconcile itself back in line with SPX, or can it keep ripping unfettered forever in theory?

$SPY vs stocks comprising $SPX:

@MarketProphit Thank you but it's not me, it's the math!

Congrats @_TimQuast You're a top Market Prophit for your call on $SPX Go to marketprophit.com and check out sentiment, buzz, and other crypto data.

Well, we blew that one! My fault -- technical troubles. We will run some drills and get it right next week! Come back at 230p ET -- during index-options expirations -- Mar 19!

We're experimenting today! In concert with @Spus and @TripleDTrader and the Premarket Prep and StockTraderNetwork team, we're going to share the weekly live EDGE users group session. We call it the Live Discussion. Tune in: youtube.com/live/tbyMvVDUK…