Tim Quast

3.8K posts

Tim Quast

@_TimQuast

Founder/CEO of ModernIR and Market Structure EDGE LLC. Invented Market Structure Analytics for IR. Expert on equity market structure.

Denver, CO Katılım Ağustos 2015

234 Takip Edilen3.5K Takipçiler

Tim Quast retweetledi

Joe Saluzzi@JoeSaluzzi·3d

I'll be testifying tomorrow before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets. Here is a link to the livestream and written testimonies. Hearing begins at 2:00pm. financialservices.house.gov/calendar/event…

English

576

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·2d

@EricBalchunas Extraordinary.

English

Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·2d

The Hyperliquid ETF $THYP is growing volume each day since launch in the tens of millions now, 8x over Day One, which is really good sign of organic interest. It also went up 20% right out of the gate, that def helps the cause. Now can someone pls pass me a glow stick.

English

102

575

82.7K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·2d

@ltabb Larry, interesting views. I'm concerned about how one blends a market-making, time-priority stock market with instantaneous peer-to-peer token settlement. Seems like a perfect arbitrage trade for Susquehanna et al. It's part of the general gamification of the capital market.

English

166

Larry Tabb@ltabb·2d

For all you equity token folks. I publishing thoughts on US Equity tokens. Equity Tokens Need Netting Not Instant Settlement of Every Trade blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/T… Second one is here - Tokenizing Stocks Creates a More Efficient Wrapper blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/T…

English

7.6K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·2d

@Amerascendence The inherent hubris in the EMH is the same one in the Byzantine Generals Problem. It supposes information in the market is used beneficently. Invariably, some data will be used to find the greater fool or a nefarious edge.

English

American Ascent@Amerascendence·3d

@_TimQuast "Efficient Market Hypothesis" is the midwit's idea of what a smart economic concept looks like.

English

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·3d

Excerpt from More Money Than God, Sebastian Malaby, on hedge funds: "If markets were dominated by rational investors seeking maximum profits, then efficiency might possibly prevail; but if markets were driven by players with other agendas, there was no reason to expect efficient pricing."

English

213

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·2d

$NVDA Prediction Model ahead of earnings: We ran it two days ahead. The good: diverging Demand/Supply, Demand at 10.0. The bad: The model forecasts near $214, volatility range $199-$250.

English

204

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·2d

If 90% of volume and the bulk of buy/sell competition for stocks is during market hours, why do companies report earnings ($NVDA) outside market hours? @NIRI_National friends, this one's for you: modernir.com/outside-market…

English

166

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·2d

Kudos to our @SteamboatCO friends at World Footbag for making @GMA today in the new #hackysack craze! worldfootbag.com

English

119

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·3d

@profplum99 I just rejiggered an IRA that's been 60/40 $SPX/govt bonds, to 75% govt bonds, 25% equities. The former offer compelling yields, and the latter is perched on 20 stocks with $40T of market cap.

English

305

Michael Green@profplum99·4d

Average and median age for these clients is 64. 110-64=56% equity under traditional asset allocation with 44% into fixed income inclusive of cash (currently sub 28%). With bond yields and financial assets vs income offering the best oppty in over 30 years.

Neil Sethi@neilksethi

Another new high for BoA's private client stock allocations (65.7%) and low for cash (9.8%). Bond allocations (17.3%) the lowest since Mar’22.

English

124

127.7K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·3d

Today's picture worth a thousand words is the ave price of $SPX stocks Sep 2023 to present, to show that it's the same now as in Nov 2024. And volatility is 3% despite low $VIX. The question is whether $MU, $SNDK et al can overcome this inertia.

English

290

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·3d

@profplum99 Indeed, Mike. Two words: Monetary Policy. Judy Shelton has shown how the decline and fall of Purchasing Power has been offset by rising financial returns. I'd emphasize purchasing power over higher wages, because it frees the economy to benefit from productivity.

English

272

Michael Green@profplum99·4d

Perhaps ewe can understand my frustration with tweets like this. Pareto (80/20) is a naturally occurring fractal byproduct of lower bounded (bankruptcy/zero sales) power law distribution. The expected share under Pareto of the Top 1% is ~53%. A rising concentration trend indicates an UNNATURAL forcing on the system — eg rising anti-competitive behavior.

Random Walk@MosesSternstein

pareto effects in everything top 1% of firms account for 80%(!) of sales

English

112

30.2K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·13 May

@elerianm @charliebilello Seems like the Treasury will have no choice but to follow Judy Shelton's advice, Mohamed, and issue the first tranche of gold-backed convertible 50yr Treasury Trust Bonds to bring down rates and force discipline on govt.

English

181

Mohamed A. El-Erian@elerianm·13 May

Charlie Bilello on US government interest payments: "...at the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security." #economy #markets #debt @charliebilello

English

195

21.7K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·13 May

@EricBalchunas Eric, Active money the past decade lost over $5T of AUM and has fallen to about 36% of AUM now. Actives sell $20B/mo of stocks due to redemptions. Passives by $60B. ETFs create/redeem >$1T/mo. $NVDA is in 955 ETFs. Actives don't wag anything but a finger at Passives.

English

102

Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·13 May

My guess is Nvidia at 0.1% of SPX is blowing your mind rn.. it's true it was the 249th ranked stock in the index 10yrs ago to the #1 spot today. Not only does this show why buying it 10yrs ago was a good pick but it shows why indexes do not control the mkt, active mgrs are why Nvidia went from 250 to 1 in 10yrs. The dog is wagging the tail.

English

8.4K

Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·13 May

Let's deconstruct how 'easy' it was to own these picks in 2016. 10yrs ago S&P 500's exposure to Tesla was 0%, Nvidia was 0.1%, Bitcoin was 0%. Netflix was 0.3%, even Amazon and Meta were only 1.4%.. so yeah having sizable allocations in all those names is pretty awesome picking and foresight. Hard to see how this is even a debate.

𝕸𝖆𝖙 ✙△@MatBabiak

@EricBalchunas "awesome picks" literally just FAANG / the top stocks in the world at the time, no picking necessary

English

155

33.6K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·13 May

@EricBalchunas Mutual funds are proportional pooled instruments, Eric. ETFs are not. You know it too. The problem is selling people paper in exchange for stocks. Markets should not be stuffed with those. ETFs exist only through 40 Act exemptions.

English

Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·6 May

@_TimQuast There's 7,000 mutual funds. Are we freaking out about that too?

English

169

Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·6 May

Normally a new ETF issuer, esp indie ones, put out 1-5 ETFs, see how it goes then files for more. Corgi is flooding the zone, launching 34 ETFs tmrw (from buffers to themes, almost all cheaper), has another 200-300 filed. We've never seen anything quite like this. Should be interesting..

Dave Nadig@DaveNadig

34 ETFs tomorrow from @CorgiFunds. They're just full Vanguarding the thematic/buffers space. $MAGS to $DRNZ to $UFO, the Dollar Store Spaghetti Cannon is firing! The Terrordome is good for investors. (Not all clean comps, but ...) cc: @EricBalchunas @Todd_Sohn @MstarBenJohnson

English

36.1K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·13 May

Back from TX travels! For those wondering why indexes seem never to rebalance their colossally overweight exposure to, say, $SNDK, read on: modernir.com/substantially-…

English

152

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·13 May

@profplum99 There was no 2% threshold until 2012 (though Janet Yellen proposed it in 1996), which I realize is beside the point.

English

155

Michael Green@profplum99·13 May

Seriously. Who can respect a Fed Chair who consistently exceeded 2% thresholds?

Charlie Bilello@charliebilello

62. As in 62 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation.

English

190

39.2K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·13 May

@ajwdct247 A product of ETFs. They cherry-pick a statistical sample and skew to momentum large caps. It'll be fine! (cough, cough)

English

The CURMUDGEON@ajwdct247·13 May

Front Running, High Frequency Trading, Buy Programs and Market Manipulation Using Futures--Then and Now! fiendbear.com/Curmudgeon659.… InvesTech A/D Divergence Index has been in a downtrend since the end of March and fell further throughout the week. Breadth is not in line with S&P 500

English

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·13 May

@EricBalchunas And it's why ETFs like $QQQ dump stocks like $CSGP (-57% 1YR) in favor of stocks like $LITE (+1600% 1YR). But the trouble is people think they're buying a diversified instrument. I'm sure it'll all work out...

English

344

Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·13 May

ETFs have passed $700b in YTD to flows. If the year ended right now it would be 4th best ever. Good shape to break last yr's $1.5T record. Here's the Top 20 Best Sellers. Semi-shock that DRAM on list and IVV isn't.

English

195

19.4K

Tim Quast@_TimQuast·6 May

Remember stub quotes? $ACN trading to a penny? The new risk in stocks made $INTC with now 550B of market cap (bigger than $ORCL) a meme stock: modernir.com/giant-meme-sto…

English

347

Keşfet

@EricBalchunas @ltabb @Amerascendence @NIRI_National @SteamboatCO @GMA @profplum99 @elerianm