Christian Caryl

In Hungary, a striking scene: during Viktor Orbán’s campaign stop in Szombathely, citizens gathered not in applause but in protest, chanting “Russians go home”. It’s more than a moment of dissent—it reflects a deeper European divide between those who stand for democratic sovereignty and those who flirt with authoritarian influence. Europe must remain firm: our future cannot be shaped by fear, nor by those who look East for inspiration instead of forward for progress.

Sorry Jonah. I actually sat in the room for the first half of the movie. For 24 polite years, Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama diplomatically asked NATO members to increase defense spending. For 24 years, it was one excuse after another, all focused in Western Europe on how they wish they could spend more, but their social welfare spending priorities wouldn’t let them. In other words, you the US will spend on defense and protect us. Along comes rude Donald Trump. Finally, someone made clear that if Europe kept freeloading the US was done. It took a bill in the China shop to move Europe. Diplomacy failed. Trump prevailed. That’s reality whether you or I like it. NATO self-withered after 75 years. If Spain, England, Italy and France won’t spend what’s necessary to have a real military, it’s time for something new.

When this is over, the western part of NATO will never be the same. Spain, England, France and Italy have sold us out, as they too often have a history of doing. Eastern European nations are the heart of NATO. They spend money on defense, know how to fight and love the US. France particularly deserves fault and blame. From supporting China and Russia at the UN to denying Americans overflight rights, they’re doing what they’ve always done - showing weakness, while cutting deals with terrorists. (The reason the US has a Marine Corps and Navy is unlike France, we refused to pay a ransom to the Barbary Pirates. France is always happy to cut a deal.) Wars have unintended consequences as nations show their true colors. NATO will never be the same, and Western European weakness and acquiescence is the cause.

Back to the Stone Age.

We have yet to feel the full force of oil and gas price spikes and energy shortages.  But they’ve started in Asia, the destination for most oil and gas that went through the Strait of Hormuz. They’re now coming our way, arriving by the middle of April at the latest, as they roll west across the globe.  Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it isn’t going to. Energy shocks unfold sequentially NOT simultaneously.  People and politicians haven’t yet woken up to this. Yesterday on this show we spoke to Greg Newman, an experienced energy trader. He warned of major problems coming down the pike. He’s right. It was a wake up call we’d do well to heed.  What’s already happening in Asia is a harbinger of what’s in store for us. Huge rises in the price of oil and gas. Growing shortages in diesel and jet fuel. Knock on effects on everything from fertilisers for the spring growing season to microchip production.  About a third of the world’s fertilisers, needed for food production, and a third of the world’s helium, needed for chip production, are produced by the Gulf’s petrochemical industries and come through the Strait of Hormuz. No longer.  Western governments need to wake up to the economic tsunami coming their way. The Starmer government in particular needs to get a grip.  The PM and his ministers are dangerously insouciant in the face of what’s about to hit them. They speak in generalities, with no sense of urgency, complacently out of their depth. I fear they have no idea what’s in store.  They talk about average household energy bills falling by over £100 from tomorrow. What they never add is that they will rise by almost £300 come July.  Soon the price of everything from petrol at the pump to food at the check out counter will soar. Central banks will panic at the sight of inflation reignited — and jack up interest rates.  Remember this — every major energy shock in the past has led to recession. Not because energy prices went through the roof but because central banks pushed up interest rates in their wake, killing consumer spending, the property market and business investment in the process. AND ushering in recession.  There is every chance history is about to repeat itself. Especially since we’re now run by people who are wholly ignorant of that history.  Of course, peace could soon break out and, after a rough spring and summer, normality could beckon before winter is again upon us.  But if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed in a month’s time we will all be paying a steep price for a war — Trump’s War — we did not start and did not ask for. And having to deal with an increasingly deranged White House.  2/2