Christian Caryl

I firmly believe that Putin has miscalculated, and that his war will only lead to the outcomes he didn't want. Here's why washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…

E. Jean Carroll on Donald Trump: "I don't understand how people can be afraid of a fat elderly man who wears apricot makeup, his hair done up like Tippi Hedren in The Birds and sits in a court room and moans and groans and complains”

As Zelensky returns from Paris tomorrow to decide fate of under pressure defence minster Mykhailo Fedorov, soldiers and activists rally behind him. I’m told it's not looking great for him, but no final decision has been taken. For more: economist.com/europe/2026/07…

Eighteen months into Trump’s assault on the US constitution, Democrats are languishing at roughly the same high-thirties approval rating as the Republicans. Thereby hangs a warning sign.” My column. ft.com/content/bd5f39…

Lindsey Graham was one of the main subjects of a @TheAtlantic cover story I wrote in 2020, on why people collaborate with regimes they know are immoral. Here's a gift link: theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

Growing speculation suggests that amid the gov reshuffle, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov could be removed due to an alleged conflict with AFU Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi over Fedorov’s proposed reforms. Important: among Ukrainians, this is more a concern than a rumor. Fedorov’s previous achievements have made him widely viewed as a successful manager with strong public support. In contrast, Gen. Syrskyi remains unpopular among many Ukrainians due to various reasons, from his Russian background to criticism of his battlefield decision-making. For many Ukrainians, the rumor is driven by fear rather than confirmed information. However, it signals that any decision to replace or move Fedorov would be highly unpopular, while Syrskyi’s replacement is a widely anticipated step in Ukrainian society. Even in a WhatsApp chat with Zelenskyy’s office, some journalists unusually did not ask a question but instead urged the office to keep Fedorov in his position. Many Ukrainians have high hopes for Fedorov’s military reforms and support giving him more authority and opportunities.

My take on why I think Graham will go down in the history books as a key figure in modern GOP spectator.com/article/lindse…

Will Lindsey Graham be remembered as a great senator? spectator.com/article/lindse… @ccaryl @melindaharing

Ukraine’s ambassador to the US Olha Stefanishyna held talks with Zelenskyy in recent days and told him she was ready to step down from her post in Washington, according to several people familiar with the administration’s plans. Those people said the president was pleased with her work and supported her decision, which was made for personal reasons. As previously reported below, she faces a criminal investigation being conducted by the National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine; she has denied the accusations. More in the @FT story below.

@Ric_RTP Hey, Ricardo, would you mind DMing me? I would like to talk to you about turning your thread into an op-ed. Many thanks in advance!

This man stole a country from his own father and spent the next 18 years buying the West with gas money. - He deposed his own dad in a palace coup and left him in exile for nearly a decade - He founded the news network that aired Osama bin Laden's tapes - He built America's largest military base in the Middle East and charges no rent for it - He bought Harrods, the Shard, Canary Wharf, Paris Saint-Germain and 17% of Volkswagen - He won the 2022 World Cup for a country with no football history Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani died this morning at 74. Here's how bought the world: In June 1995, he waited for his father to leave the country, then took the throne. The coup was bloodless. His father spent nearly a decade in exile. Qatar is about one third the size of Belgium, and its population was barely two million, most of them foreign workers. But it was sitting on one of the LARGEST natural gas reserves on Earth. He bet everything on liquefied natural gas. Qatar became the world's biggest LNG exporter and one of the richest countries alive per person. Then he hit the problem every commodity business hits: Gas is gas, anyone with a tanker can sell it, and a tiny country with no army and that much money is a snack for its neighbours. So he bought two things nobody else in the Gulf thought to buy... The first was the world's attention. In 1996 he issued a decree and Al Jazeera was born. Within a few years it was the most influential news network in the Arab world. He owned the loudest microphone in the region and never had to speak into it himself. The second was the American military. In 1996, Qatar spent over a billion dollars building an air base at Al Udeid, outside Doha. It got the longest runway in the Gulf and shelters for nearly a hundred aircraft. Qatar's air force only had about a dozen fighter jets. In 1999 he reportedly told US officials he wanted 10,000 American servicemen stationed there permanently. Then 9/11 happened, and they came. The genius part: Al Udeid is now the forward headquarters of US Central Command and the largest American base in the Middle East, with roughly 10,000 troops. Qatar charges no rent. He built the asset before the customer existed, handed it over free, and bought the one thing cash cannot: The US military parked permanently between his gas and everyone who wanted it. The network broadcasting bin Laden and the runway flying America's war sat in the same tiny country, paid for by the same man. Then he went shopping... He set up the Qatar Investment Authority in 2005: - Harrods - The Shard - Canary Wharf, London's largest property owner, bought with Brookfield for 2.6 billion pounds - 17% of Volkswagen - Paris Saint-Germain All his. In 2017 the Telegraph ran the headline "Qataris own more of London than the Queen." Then 2008 arrived. Barclays needed billions or the British government was going to own it. Qatar wrote the cheque and its stake climbed to 12.7%. Barclays was later charged over how it disclosed that Qatari money. In 2010, FIFA handed the 2022 World Cup to a desert country with NO football history. Corruption allegations shadowed the bid for over a decade, and the treatment of the migrant workers who built it drew brutal criticism. Yet he walked into the opening match in 2022 and the stadium gave him a standing ovation. Every other Gulf state was selling the same molecule at the same price. Hamad spent his money on a newsroom, a runway, a football club and half of London. A country of two million now brokers hostage deals and hosts American presidents. He built all of it in 18 years, and he took the throne from his own father to start. Truly an unmatched legacy.

schadenfreude at the death of political opponents is deeply unattractive. makes me distrust people’s decency on other matters.

Graves disturbios en Suiza tras quedar eliminados

Who will be the next prime minister of Ukraine? Time to pull out my bingo card. My money is on @FedorovMykhailo politico.eu/article/ukrain…

Another example of drone on drone combat, this time with a twist. A Russian FPV targets a Ukrainian CASEVAC UGV but before the final attack, is intercepted by a Ukrainian FPV. #WarTransformed

To be clear, 76 tankers comprise a massive fraction of Russia's shadow fleet. At this rate in two weeks there will be next to no Russian tankers in the Black Sea. This is more effective that any direct sanctions package. Even if these tankers aren't sunk or fully disabled, their ability to independently operate is effectively zero. What port would accept a tanker with visible damage? That is a massive fire risk. What tanker would risk an at sea transfers with a ship with damaged systems?

The White House directed Patel to oversee a leak investigation into reporting by @nytimes about security issues with the new Air Force One, leading to a flurry of subpoenas to reporters Friday night, report @DevlinBarrett @GlennThrush @maggieNYT nytimes.com/2026/07/11/us/…

Meine Sonntagskolumne: Studiert man Putins Verhalten in früheren Krisensituationen, spricht vieles dafür, dass er seinen bisherigen Kurs fortsetzen wird – in Form einer graduellen Eskalation: Luftangriffe, verstärkte Rekrutierungswellen, nukleare Drohungen und verdeckte feindselige Aktionen in Nato-Staaten. Tatsächlich aber läuft auch Russland zunehmend die Zeit davon, um eine militärische Entscheidung zu erzwingen.

NEW: How Putin turned Japan into a den of spies to help his war machine –– and the secret military intelligence unit at the centre of his efforts to get the technology Russia needs to keep attacking Ukraine Latest investigation w @mschwirtz + Adam Goldman nytimes.com/2026/07/12/wor…

Despite Ukraine’s remarkable successes, its grand strategy still faces serious challenges, writes columnist @ccaryl. foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/09/ukr…

It was a pleasure joining Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg, Matt Tavares and Christian Caryl to discuss how the #Iran war is reshaping #Russia's role in the #MiddleEast. We also drew on our recent research examining #Moscow's longer-term regional strategy after #Ukraine. Watch here: washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute @generalkellogg @UbiquityMatt @ccaryl

This action by the US government to subpoena reporters for reporting legitimate news on security concerns about Air Force 1 should alarm every American. “The appearance of federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects,” said David McCraw, The Times’s top newsroom lawyer, in a statement on Friday evening.