learnlearn
85 posts
learnlearn
@learnlearnfree
chip, software, investment
Tham gia Ocak 2026
154 Đang theo dõi11 Người theo dõi
I keep hearing that developers write code too early in the whole "getting things done" process but my experience says the exact opposite.
The only real way I've found to figure out requirements IS to start writing code and see what I bump into.
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@ecommerceshares US imports energy through importing physical goods. It's a big net importer while China is a big net exporter.
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The market’s been pretty firm because we know that a ceasefire would create a simply massive short covering and buy-back-in rally that could take the S&P500 to 7,300+.
On top, the war has highlighted US energy independence, making the AI growth story even more attractive.
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@Handre Tbh I doubt the veracity of the story because it was just simple economics. With limited forex back then it's way more productive to import high impact machinery like petrochemical and fertilizer plants than construction machinery. Comparative advantage at work, really.
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@Handre Back then wages were so low and labor was more abundant and likely more flexible than machines. It's not just a job creation story. If people are happy with low wages they are welcome to compete against machines. But they want high pay and protection.
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@FishtownCap @DeepIceValue Did you adjust for geopolitical risk?
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@DeepIceValue Pretty sure you're creating a "everything Berkshire does is brilliant!" narrative because $OXY has been a terribly performing E&P for them.
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I guess we know now why $BRK.B was stacking $OXY and $CVX for years while the price was not amazing..
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@pretentiouswhat @shajise @isaacstonefish They are a big net energy exporter once you account for embodied energy in traded goods.
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@shajise @isaacstonefish Same as they would anywhere, once the lower priced reserves and inventories run out...Inflation, demand destruction, and damage to economic activities and livelihoods. China's efforts to buffer against this scenario have made it more resilient than many but not immune.
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No…China is the world’s largest importer of LNG and the article was broader than exposure to gas in power sectors.
David Fishman@pretentiouswhat
If you aren't just asking rhetorically, it's because it's NOT a “story about Asia and coal”; it's very specifically a piece about Asian economies with heavy exposure to gas in their power sectors forced to lean more on their coal fleet instead as LNG prices spike. However, unlike JP, SK, etc. China uses very little gas in its power sector (just ~3% of generation) and those gas plants see most of their use in the peak months of July/August. So, there is no gas-to-coal switching happening in the Chinese power sector right now, putting it outside the scope of the article.
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@rectalvirus @MilbournZack @TaylorOgan If you are referring to my comment on intelligence I am just correcting the terminology. What matters is the amount of data and compute.
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@learnlearnfree @MilbournZack @TaylorOgan Uhh, okay, not sure what you meant earlier then.
So why do you think fsd doesn't work in China? It does, and it works better than all of the competition.
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LiDAR is everywhere in China, while Tesla’s 2020 fleet of over one million robotaxis are nowhere.
CnEVPost@CnEVPost
In China, even electric two-wheelers are starting to use LiDAR As LiDAR costs drop significantly to around $200, the sensor is beginning to penetrate from passenger cars into the two-wheeler market. cnev.co/ILUX3QO 👇
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@rectalvirus @MilbournZack @TaylorOgan Thanks for the info. I just watched and contrasted the two videos shown in this thread. I also don't think more sensors could hurt fsd so I won't be surprised if one day they add lidars.
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@kakashiii111 Guess the H200s won't go to China physically. They can avoid the 25% tax by keeping them outside of China?
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After dozens of articles, statements, and remarks over the past three and a half months about H200s, Jensen said this week (one may wonder about the timing) that the H200 has received approval from both sides and that they are “firing up manufacturing.”
This morning, China’s Commerce Ministry said it is not aware of this situation.
I will keep following this saga.
Kakashii@kakashiii111
I wish you all find and have a wife who will obsess over and love you the way Reuters and Bloomberg obsess over Nvidia’s H200, releasing at least one catalyst every three days, sometimes even two catalysts in one day. I have never seen such an obsession before.
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@learnlearnfree @MilbournZack @TaylorOgan Hahahaha you say you live there, I've spent a good count of time in China and my wife is Chinese.
10000% FSD dominates self driving in China.
To think otherwise is so laughable 🤣🤣
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@DrewCohenMoney Because definition of commodity is fungibility. If models can replace each other you can fix the model architecture and weights and you don't need GPUs.
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Not the clearest quote from Alex Karp, but what he is getting at I think is very important.
My read of this is that the real value creation with AI will flow to the chip makers and then the layer that sits on top of the AI models
The AI models themselves will be commoditized.
We can look at what is happening with Anthropic being pulled from government work as a supply chain risk as a case study.
While $PLTR wasn't immediatly able to swap out the models, they are already replacing Anthropic with OpenAI for government work after it was deemed a "supply chain risk" by the U.S. government.
Maybe Anthropic's Claude was ahead of OpenAI, but the difference wasn't so large that is they can't accomodate a model swap.
And while the dispute was more to do with ideology than economics, the same thing can play out in economic discussions in the future.
This will really limit the AI model providers pricing power so long as there isn't one clear winner.
The AI models can still make a margin (like AWS, GCP, Azure all do), but it greatly reduces their leverage in pricing negotiations.
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@MilbournZack @TaylorOgan Maybe by intelligence you meant compute because history shows that brute force wins over intelligence. I could accept that more compute could compensate for less sensors but I don't see how more sensors could hurt.
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Yeah I’m not going to spend all day finding the perfect comparison for this guy. He challenged me to provide evidence of FSD driving in his city, that’s what I did.
Beyond that, there are hundreds of hours of FSD handling traffic situations as nasty, or nastier, than in his video. Available for anyone to view.
As I originally asserted, there have been plenty of third party comparisons done between FSD and the best in class China ADAS. FSD consistently comes out on top.
Intelligence drives the car, not the sensors.
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@MilbournZack @TaylorOgan I watched both. Your video shows traffic conditions so much simpler than the other guy's that it's hard to believe that you are actually countering his arguments.
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@touchyteee @AndreasSteno This is a big misread of reality. US is a big net importer of energy once embodied energy in goods manufacturing is accounted for. China is a big net exporter.
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@AndreasSteno It simple US have no interest in protecting the oil that they do not use themself
Why waste 3M AA save china the more oil in Asia is expensive the more it will hurt china export
Oil price in Asia today
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Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict.
Not good..
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@eshear @francoisfleuret You are confusing definitional equality with something else.
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@francoisfleuret How can the huge spaghetti mess of particle collisions be so precise in the implementation of temperature?
Sufficient statistics are sufficient.
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I cannot understand how the huge statistical spaghetti mess that is a transformer can be so correct in the formal causal analysis of a huge piece of source code.
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@RobinWigg Isn't this article just confused about total capitalization and float? Market indices are float based for reasons of tracking. But total market capitalization should be based on total share count to begin with. So you still have your divergence unexplained.
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The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. ft.com/content/b43184…
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@macastel3 Have you lived in there? Most Chinese people never understand that oil is the raw material of many products,not only gasoline.
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We paid 7.5 dollars to fully charge the electric car!
Nobody in China cares about the oil wars anymore
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@NycB7p @macastel3 Check @tphuang posts about supplies in other chemicals. Yes they do understand and that's why they are prepared. What many don't understand is how much imported oil is to make exports.
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@FinanceJack44 Were the management buyers or sellers of the stock for their own accounts?
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Something that looks concerning at first for $FICO is their substantial amount of debt.
However, this is a calculated and controlled move by management.
Because $FICO is so capital light, they simultaneously generate massive FCF while having very few places to reinvest back into the business.
As a result management decides to put the excess capital into share buybacks.
Since the stock has been heavily sold off recently, they have decided to take this one step further and take out debt to fund even more buybacks, similar to what $CRM is doing. They can afford to do this because of the consistency of cashflow within the business.
If $FICO management truly believes the stock is undervalued today, this seems like a reasonable move given the strength of the business.
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