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Mocha

@monster_models

@Strategy modeling enthusiast | $MSTR shareholder | Options seller | $STRC advocate | #Bitcoin | ex-HPC software developer | Loyal fan of @milkmochabear

Tham gia Ocak 2020
100 Đang theo dõi358 Người theo dõi
Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
@AlexesNakamoto Omg lol. What is wrong with people? Thanks for catching me up! 🧡🍻
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Alex 👽
Alex 👽@AlexesNakamoto·
I found one.
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
100%! 1. There's no urgent need to have used the $MSTR ATM at this time. 2. Saylor will not pass up the opportunity to send a message to the market, and particularly to the short-sellers, that the game has changed. The only way I can see them having used the common ATM is if they wanted to raise a little bit of extra marginal cash for the USD Reserve. But my theory is that they are waiting for Bitcoin to wake up more fully so they can do that at higher NAV premium levels, which will also conveniently de-lever the balance sheet.
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WallStreetBets
WallStreetBets@wallstreetbets·
Something’s starting to feel… different.
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Ryan Morse
Ryan Morse@RyanMorseWx·
Incredible video of the hail in Sweetser, Indiana from Tuesday evening. This comes courtesy of Alexandra Poor. Golf ball sized hail like this can easily damage roofs and cars. @wrtv
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
@TheDemocrats Punishing success isn't the solution you seem to think it is. Instead, you should work to fix the money. #Bitcoin This is coming from a former lifetime liberal Democrat who left your party. 🧡
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Democrats
Democrats@TheDemocrats·
TAX THE RICH
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
@TNorth Lol, is that Adam Back? Love the go karts hauling wagons of cash. And the power plants looking in the background. 🧡
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True North
True North@TNorth·
New Episode Tonight: 📷 10pm EST / 7pm PST True North Episode 63 -Calling The Shot Agenda:  1. Does STRC Have a Speed Limit?  2. Large Capital Flows 3. Capital Market Landscape Have questions you want covered in the livestream? Ask them here: tnorth.com/ask/
True North tweet media
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AngryBuhda
AngryBuhda@AngryBuhda·
Can anybody actually articulate and quantify their contrary thesis on $MSTR and $STRC? I'm 0 for 3 in finding my X nemesis... Never responded much to the hallucinations I'm seeing present as fact. But damn y'all are quick with the block button when I engage with any semblance of rational debate. Will the chosen one step forward? I promise I'll match your energy in good faith.
GIF
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
We've all heard that hedge funds and short-sellers run massive FUDbot campaigns on X against @Strategy, $MSTR, and $STRC. Those short-sellers are like banks -- they have no ideological (or even intellectual) dog in this fight. The bulls, on the other hand, have an almost religious zeal. And it's not just because most of them truly believe in the need for globally sound money and sound capital. In many cases, the bulls' bullishness flows from a rational, numerical, fact-based clarity about the company and the robustness of its digital credit business model. Put more simply, the bulls generally are much harder to sway because they've built their outlook on a durable foundation, one that embodies the soundness of #Bitcoin itself -- truth. I'm seeing evidence that the FUDbots' effectiveness may be waning. This could be partially because the community is becoming more educated, which seems to be causing the bots to formulate arguments that appeal more through tone rather than substance. I've also observed that even the (human) bears seem to be getting tired, or making weak arguments, or both. I think this speaks to the regime shift we've undergone -- that is, the facts on the ground have changed materially in Strategy's favor. At some point, a significant cohort of short-sellers will decide that it's more likely for them to make money by going long than by staying short. That's when the game changes.
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv

The bears are running out of ammo. They have no rational arguments left. Now the narrative will be "STRC is scaling too fast and MSTR shareholders have to pay for it". They will do everything they can to ignore the fact that Bitcoin is going up forever. All of their arguments must happen in a vacuum, over a short time period where Bitcoin is trading flat. 35% amplification ratio on the balance sheet? Wanna know what happens to MSTR when Bitcoin goes to $200k with that number? Debate over.

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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
@AdamBLiv @Strategy I very much look forward to seeing broken brains littering Wall Street. Honored to be in the fight alongside you, sir! 🫡
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
@monster_models @Strategy We will see a run-up above NAV again in BTC mania and the retail idiots will come in and capitulate to the short seller nonsense. The people in the trade now get it but we'll see a lot more brains breaking in the future.
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
The bears and the short-sellers have been in an alliance of convenience. The short-sellers are just doing what they think will make them money in the short term. The bears, however -- whether through ignorance, confusion, low IQ, close-minded stubbornness, or ideological fervor -- truly believe that @Strategy's products like $STRC will struggle to gain traction, or that they contain some underappreciated, hidden defect that will detonate spectacularly in the future. But the two groups now find themselves in something akin to the prisoner's dilemma. If they cooperate and continue to short together, then they might be able to keep $MSTR's share price depressed. But if one of them defects, the defector stands to benefit more than if they continued to cooperate. In game theory, there is a concept called Nash equilibrium. It is when no player can benefit from changing their own strategy, provided that the other players leave their respective strategies unchanged. Put another way: it is when each player's strategy is optimal given the expectation that other players maintain the status quo. The situation happening between the bears and the short-sellers is not a Nash equilibrium. It is unstable. The bears believe they are right; some of them feel so threatened by the prospect of being humbled that they double- and triple-down, building entire identities around their position. By contrast, the short-sellers are situationally aware and see only short-term opportunities and their probabilities. This market is a tinderbox. Once the short-covering begins in earnest, it will initiate one of the most rapid transfers of wealth we've ever seen in modern financial markets.
Mocha@monster_models

We've all heard that hedge funds and short-sellers run massive FUDbot campaigns on X against @Strategy, $MSTR, and $STRC. Those short-sellers are like banks -- they have no ideological (or even intellectual) dog in this fight. The bulls, on the other hand, have an almost religious zeal. And it's not just because most of them truly believe in the need for globally sound money and sound capital. In many cases, the bulls' bullishness flows from a rational, numerical, fact-based clarity about the company and the robustness of its digital credit business model. Put more simply, the bulls generally are much harder to sway because they've built their outlook on a durable foundation, one that embodies the soundness of #Bitcoin itself -- truth. I'm seeing evidence that the FUDbots' effectiveness may be waning. This could be partially because the community is becoming more educated, which seems to be causing the bots to formulate arguments that appeal more through tone rather than substance. I've also observed that even the (human) bears seem to be getting tired, or making weak arguments, or both. I think this speaks to the regime shift we've undergone -- that is, the facts on the ground have changed materially in Strategy's favor. At some point, a significant cohort of short-sellers will decide that it's more likely for them to make money by going long than by staying short. That's when the game changes.

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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
Some fixed income investors will look at $STRC and say that it is too good to be true. But slowly they will realize that everything else is too awful to tolerate.
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
I expect that is what will happen. 🍻 In the meantime, it makes sense to be generous with the yield, even if by 100-150 bps, in order to accelerate the growth trajectory of $STRC's market cap. It's consistent with other strategic decisions @Strategy has made, such as holding the USD reserve in order to increase trust and perceived credit quality even when the optimal short-term approach would be to smash-buy Bitcoin. In retrospect, I think those extra 100-150 bps will seem like a very good "investment" for the $MSTR shareholders in 5 years when Bitcoin is trading at $400k. But I haven't quantified yet what that payoff could look like. Speaking of, I'm gearing up to release my monster model framework, which allow people to see test out exactly this scenario, among many other hypotheticals. You'll be able to see growth in MSTR share price, BTC reserve, BTC yield, Sats per share, MSTR market cap, STRC market cap -- under whatever assumptions you wish. There's nothing else like it out there (at least that I've encountered). Please stay tuned! 🧡
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Frank
Frank@Frank54703905·
@monster_models @RHodls @BTCoptioneer I’m hoping as a MSTR holder that he shows the same ruthlessness towards STRC holders and puts the rate to as low as it can go, once he’s taken the money.
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
$80k in $STRC And while the investor is enjoying their rock-bottom volatility and steady dividends, they can learn as much as they can about #Bitcoin and @Strategy. Then they can decide whether and to what degree either is for them. I'd leave $VOO on the bench every day all day, but they should keep it on their watchlist as a reminder for what passes as a "safe default" in tradfi spaces. 🍻
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BTC Teacher
BTC Teacher@BitcoinTeacher_·
Be honest, what is a better base for a beginning investor to start with? • 1 #BTC with a average price of $80k • $80k in VOO lump summed in today.
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Rajat Soni, CFA
Rajat Soni, CFA@Rajatsoni·
The bears are sending their worst into battle 🤣🤣
Rajat Soni, CFA tweet media
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