Mocha

@EthanKasner_ @AdamBLiv @Strategy 💯🚀

@AdamBLiv @monster_models @Strategy The retail narrative that MSTR can buy infinite BTC from STRC will send MSTR to the stratosphere when sentiment changes.

We've all heard that hedge funds and short-sellers run massive FUDbot campaigns on X against @Strategy, $MSTR, and $STRC. Those short-sellers are like banks -- they have no ideological (or even intellectual) dog in this fight. The bulls, on the other hand, have an almost religious zeal. And it's not just because most of them truly believe in the need for globally sound money and sound capital. In many cases, the bulls' bullishness flows from a rational, numerical, fact-based clarity about the company and the robustness of its digital credit business model. Put more simply, the bulls generally are much harder to sway because they've built their outlook on a durable foundation, one that embodies the soundness of #Bitcoin itself -- truth. I'm seeing evidence that the FUDbots' effectiveness may be waning. This could be partially because the community is becoming more educated, which seems to be causing the bots to formulate arguments that appeal more through tone rather than substance. I've also observed that even the (human) bears seem to be getting tired, or making weak arguments, or both. I think this speaks to the regime shift we've undergone -- that is, the facts on the ground have changed materially in Strategy's favor. At some point, a significant cohort of short-sellers will decide that it's more likely for them to make money by going long than by staying short. That's when the game changes.

@AdamBLiv @Strategy I very much look forward to seeing broken brains littering Wall Street. Honored to be in the fight alongside you, sir! 🫡

@monster_models @Strategy We will see a run-up above NAV again in BTC mania and the retail idiots will come in and capitulate to the short seller nonsense. The people in the trade now get it but we'll see a lot more brains breaking in the future.

The bears and the short-sellers have been in an alliance of convenience. The short-sellers are just doing what they think will make them money in the short term. The bears, however -- whether through ignorance, confusion, low IQ, close-minded stubbornness, or ideological fervor -- truly believe that @Strategy's products like $STRC will struggle to gain traction, or that they contain some underappreciated, hidden defect that will detonate spectacularly in the future. But the two groups now find themselves in something akin to the prisoner's dilemma. If they cooperate and continue to short together, then they might be able to keep $MSTR's share price depressed. But if one of them defects, the defector stands to benefit more than if they continued to cooperate. In game theory, there is a concept called Nash equilibrium. It is when no player can benefit from changing their own strategy, provided that the other players leave their respective strategies unchanged. Put another way: it is when each player's strategy is optimal given the expectation that other players maintain the status quo. The situation happening between the bears and the short-sellers is not a Nash equilibrium. It is unstable. The bears believe they are right; some of them feel so threatened by the prospect of being humbled that they double- and triple-down, building entire identities around their position. By contrast, the short-sellers are situationally aware and see only short-term opportunities and their probabilities. This market is a tinderbox. Once the short-covering begins in earnest, it will initiate one of the most rapid transfers of wealth we've ever seen in modern financial markets.

@Frank54703905 @RHodls @BTCoptioneer @Strategy Will do! 🍻🫡 Have a lovely day, sir!

@monster_models @RHodls @BTCoptioneer @Strategy Stay focused mate. I’m sure it will be awesome

Some fixed income investors will look at $STRC and say that it is too good to be true. But slowly they will realize that everything else is too awful to tolerate.

@zaidlikesmstr Want give! 😭😭

@monster_models Need monster models

Here’s something that should make you pause: We’ve generated ~$1.3Billion in BTC gain this month. Contribution from $MSTR? Zero. 💀💀

I expect that is what will happen. 🍻 In the meantime, it makes sense to be generous with the yield, even if by 100-150 bps, in order to accelerate the growth trajectory of $STRC's market cap. It's consistent with other strategic decisions @Strategy has made, such as holding the USD reserve in order to increase trust and perceived credit quality even when the optimal short-term approach would be to smash-buy Bitcoin. In retrospect, I think those extra 100-150 bps will seem like a very good "investment" for the $MSTR shareholders in 5 years when Bitcoin is trading at $400k. But I haven't quantified yet what that payoff could look like. Speaking of, I'm gearing up to release my monster model framework, which allow people to see test out exactly this scenario, among many other hypotheticals. You'll be able to see growth in MSTR share price, BTC reserve, BTC yield, Sats per share, MSTR market cap, STRC market cap -- under whatever assumptions you wish. There's nothing else like it out there (at least that I've encountered). Please stay tuned! 🧡

@monster_models @RHodls @BTCoptioneer I’m hoping as a MSTR holder that he shows the same ruthlessness towards STRC holders and puts the rate to as low as it can go, once he’s taken the money.

$80k in $STRC And while the investor is enjoying their rock-bottom volatility and steady dividends, they can learn as much as they can about #Bitcoin and @Strategy. Then they can decide whether and to what degree either is for them. I'd leave $VOO on the bench every day all day, but they should keep it on their watchlist as a reminder for what passes as a "safe default" in tradfi spaces. 🍻

Be honest, what is a better base for a beginning investor to start with? • 1 #BTC with a average price of $80k • $80k in VOO lump summed in today.

@Rajatsoni Lolllll

The bears are sending their worst into battle 🤣🤣

@mikewmunz 💯

This is what it ultimately comes down to Eventually, they’ll be forced to capitulate as holding the inferior assets causes more pain as their return dwindles in real terms

My take is that Saylor and the board will only lower the dividend rate if they perceive there being too much demand for $STRC, however they choose to define "too much." Otherwise, Saylor would rather overpay slightly to get the additional marginal STRC shares out the door knowing that he can always lower the rate later. It's similar to his philosophy on buying Bitcoin - he'd rather buy OTC at a slight premium and get his fills immediately than mess around with market price and maybe not get filled.

@RHodls @BTCoptioneer @monster_models He said it himself in the latest podcast (that strc rate would come down). Can’t remember what minute. But was in the first 1 hour

@dominickolas1 @ZynxBTC This is unusually wise (not for you, just from people in general). 🍻🫡

@ZynxBTC Some people don't want to be right. They just want to be listened to.

This might be the stupidest post I have ever seen on Strategy and it got 162k views. If they ever had $700bn in dividend obligations from STRC, that means ~$6tn was raised and put into Bitcoin. Share price would be orders of magnitude higher than $543. I'm genuinely stunned.

The yield is definitely part of what I've noticed some people zero in on as suspiciously good. But it's more than that: when you combine the stellar yield with the tax-deferred ROC dividend treatment (and qualified after that, AFAIU from reading the prospectus) as well as the ultra-low volatility and high liquidity, it starts to set off alarm bells in certain people's heads, at least before they more fully understand the product and @Strategy. I can't blame them though, because we basically condition people socially from young ages to think that "if something seems too good to be true, it probably is."

@monster_models $STRC yields will slowly compress down to 8%. At that point, it will be a $100B asset and institutional capital will be pouring in.

What Grain said. They're probably aware of how $MSFT shareholders reacted when their board put whether to assess the potential of adding BTC to their balance sheet to a vote. It was overwhelmingly rejected (granted, at the recommendation of the board). Only 0.55% of shareholders voted in favor. Something tells me the shareholders will come around in the future, but not before first pointing the finger at the board and CEO for missing the opportunity and "misleading them" with their recommendation to vote no. coindesk.com/markets/2024/1…

@glennhodl Unlikely, since the Bitcoin price will rise as they buy and their boards will not have the conviction.

MSTR is clearly going to get to 1m bitcoin. From a standing start it would take perhaps $300-400 billion to match that. Realistically about 10 companies have the cash to seed enough of a treasury to get there. Berkshire Hathaway: ~$382B CITIC Limited: ~$171B Daiwa Securities Group: ~$131B Alphabet: ~$127B Amazon: ~$126B TSMC: ~$98B Interactive Brokers: ~$93B Microsoft: ~$89B Charles Schwab: ~$89B Meta Platforms: ~$82B Any chance any of them get remotely close?

@ChrisMMillas 🍻

@monster_models I would not be surprised.

🔥 Hot prediction 🔥 One of the big banks is already beginning to accumulate a massive position in $STRC as they execute internally on the digital money product that @saylor and @phongle pitched them in December. My guess is that it is @MorganStanley. While proud of the successful launch of their $MSBT ETF, they deeply regret waiting so long and now being so far behind BlackRock and $IBIT. They're determined to not make the same mistake twice, and want to establish themselves as the first to market with a novel offering. What better way to catch up than for that product to be one that everyone will want? Not only would it re-assert their relevance, it would cement it for years. Possibly decades. Morgan Stanley heard the #Bitcoin community say, "Get on board or get left behind." They chose to get on board.

@InNumerisSat @saylor @phongle @MorganStanley Agreed. The banks tend to do whatever will make them money. Bitcoin facilitates this well.

@monster_models @saylor @phongle @MorganStanley That's my prediction also. Plus, it's the most rational move they can make.

@AngryBuhda Lol what a funny way to try to spread FUD.

@monster_models Apparently now the bots are saying it's doing too well. Interesting narrative..

Can you see what is happening? 👀 $STRC $MSTR

This is the whole ball game. The WHOLE ball game. It's not complicated. STRC holders take the first 11.5% of expected long-term gains, and the rest of it flows to to the MSTR common stockholders. And not only does it flow to them, it compounds along the way. The long-term expected return of MSTR can be shown to be: MSTRR = BTCR + CARRY * AMPLIFICATION where MSTRR is the expected annual return of MSTR, BTCR is the expected annual return of Bitcoin, CARRY is the carry spread between BTCR and the cost of capital (BTCR minus 11.5%), and AMPLIFICATION is the amplification ratio. So if the expected CAGR over some forward time horizon for Bitcoin is 32%, for MSTR it might be 32% + 20.5% * 35% = 39.1%. MSTR is an amplified carry trade. x.com/i/status/20342…

@HighYieldHustle So if they sell $1M of STRC, and in 10 years they pay $1.15M in dividends to STRC holders while that same $1M Bitcoin is worth $5M, who captures that gain?

I’m not trying to be a hater just genuinely looking for an answer. $MSTR holders why do you buy knowing you’re constantly going to be diluted?

@Voyager21M @AdamBLiv And ever! ♾️

@AdamBLiv Up forever 🚀

🔥SAYLOR HAS WON: THE BITCOIN SINGULARITY IS HERE🔥 THIS IS THE BIGGEST STORY IN FINANCE. THE BEARS ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT. ASSUMING LAST WEEK'S CAPTURE RATE, STRATEGY JUST RAISED MORE THAN THEIR ENTIRE ANNUAL DIVIDEND OBLIGATION... ...IN ONE TRADING SESSION... ...WITH ZERO MSTR ISSUANCE NEEDED. $1.2 BILLION OF BITCOIN PURCHASED IN ONE DAY. THE CAPITAL FROM THE WORLD'S LARGEST INCOME POOL IS FLOODING INTO BITCOIN. STRC. THE GREATEST SHARPE RATIO IN HISTORY. 11.5% YIELD. 1.7% VOLATILITY. HIGH LIQUIDITY. NOTHING CAN COMPETE WITH SAYLOR'S BITCOIN WAR MACHINE. THIS IS THE GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN THE HISTORY OF HUMANITY: