rootbear

In a world where everything feels synthetic (AI content, engineered earnings, debt-fueled growth) scarcity and authenticity win. Gold’s rally shows the instinct is still alive. Bitcoin is just the digital evolution of that same flight to truth.

@cuntycakes123 @tritonpoker Gl bud

We here gambling @tritonpoker

@QuiverQuant Oh wow a $15k buy call the cops…

This is getting ridiculous. We posted this report less than a month ago. $IONQ has now risen 48% since then.

@tombos21 @Michael52241100 No shot, these tools ruin the game. Thanks for helping out cheaters

@Michael52241100 We've integrated directly with most major poker room's security teams to prevent this.

I’ve been beta testing PLO in GTO Wizard for the last few weeks. This is going to change Pot Limit Omaha.

@dankness3 🤣

Doug Polk walking into in the Lodge on Monday

@MikeMcDonald89 The “business” is really a fee-extraction wrapper around a trade you could make directly.

Listen up since this is actually useful. For the most part, there is only one reason Bitcoin mining has been invested in.

@QuiverQuant You act like tech policy inside info caused avgo to rally 30%, how abt the entire market is up big since iran conflict began

Wow. $AVGO has now risen almost 30% since we posted this last month.

@QuiverQuant $1k-15k who cares

JUST IN: Representative Thomas Kean Jr. just filed new stock trades. He bought stock in a company called Amcor, $AMCR. Amcor is a packaging company. Kean sits on the House Subcommittee on Commerce, Manufacturing, and Trade.

@AbnormallyDist 🤫

@tsarrast Damn you seem much less confident in the King than in the past

It’s been a minute, but now feels like a good time to share some of my thoughts on Bitcoin. I think the quantum problem is a real risk. I’ve been discussing it for a while through tweets and even in my BTC article. There is some technical risk in a large upgrade working smoothly without unintended consequences. I think that risk is real, but ultimately quite small. The bigger risks are these: Bitcoin has no leadership. This is one of its greatest strengths. But in a situation like this, where Bitcoin needs to take coordinated action, which is rare, it becomes a weakness. Nobody is stepping up to resolve this because nobody is the leader. So the response is slow and unorganized. Something will have to be decided about the lost coins, which are quite sizable, maybe 2M or so, at least 10% of total supply. This is a long discussion on its own, with multiple possible approaches, all of which have tradeoffs. This will almost certainly be contentious, maybe even “block wars” level contentious. Whatever solution wins will have both positives and drawbacks. Will it be contentious enough to delay a solution until Q-day? Will the lack of leadership slow things down enough to matter? Probably not. But it is possible. In fact, I would say the risk of Bitcoin failing due to these issues is not insignificant. It’s something that should absolutely be considered. The flip side is that the argument for Bitcoin overtaking gold, assuming it continues working (which is not a given), producing blocks, and implements a quantum-proof solution, is stronger than ever. And the reason is more about gold than Bitcoin. Gold’s long-term supply dynamics are broken. The world is hungry for a non-sovereign store of value, and gold has gone through massive price discovery recently. It sits around $4,800 per ounce today, with an estimated market cap of over $33 trillion. companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-mark… It is now orders of magnitude larger than the next biggest assets. What a honeypot! With this growth, mining becomes that much more attractive, so that should increase the supply. But the broken part comes through technology. With AI increasing our rate of scientific progress, it is quite likely that at some point it becomes possible & energy efficient to create gold (think modern alchemy). And with space travel become cheaper & cheaper due to reusable rockets - and soon non-manned craft + a base on the moon where launches from there w/ fraction of Earth’s gravity & no atmosphere make that even cheaper still, it is a matter of time until we are capturing resources in the Solar System. Whether data centers in space or mining the moon & asteroids. Gold looks great today, but its long-term future as humanity’s primary store of value is certainly limited because its limited supply feature - a necessary one - is going to get BTFO. All Bitcoin has to do is survive, and it is very likely to take gold’s mantle and absorb that market cap. For this, and other reasons. @SvetskiWrites makes a compelling case here, the "3 generational theory." bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoi… Namely, as older people who prefer gold die & younger people who prefer BTC get older & richer - this will happen naturally. Gold is roughly 24x Bitcoin’s market cap today. Even from current levels, simply replacing gold implies a massive move higher. This also ignores Bitcoin’s other use cases, which I go into in more detail here: brianrast.com/single-post/20… The most bullish of these is its role as a bearer asset and collateral, potentially taking share from bonds. Strategy is implementing a test-phase of this in real time. So my view is this: Despite Bitcoin’s growth and its move into the mainstream through ETFs and regulation, the risk of failure is real and should be taken seriously. But the upside, if it succeeds, is larger than most fathom today, and incredibly compelling. That means Bitcoin is still today: a high-risk, high-EV investment. I think it belongs in every portfolio. But having it be too large a percentage of net worth is likely poor risk management for most people, except perhaps younger, single investors with high risk tolerance. BTC has been in a bear market, down over 50% from ATH to local lows. I won’t speculate on whether the bottom is in. But due to many reasons, it does seem likely the low occurs this year, and that this is a good time for people without exposure to begin building a position. Buy fear, sell exuberance. However, until the quantum issue is either resolved or clearly on a credible path toward resolution, I think there will be a persistent “quantum overhang.” By that I mean upward price moves will be met with supply from long-term holders looking to de-risk. If BTC is 3% of your portfolio, you don’t worry about this. If it’s 50%, you do. That dynamic matters. As someone who has previously believed Bitcoin might be the best publicly available investment, I’ll say this: It’s still great. But this overhang does matter. Bitcoin has always been risky, but it also offered the potential for massive upside even over shorter timeframes. I still think the long-term upside is enormous, potentially 50-100x over 20-30 years (not calling that the base case, but a bull case - read my article for further discussion there) when you factor in gold, other TAMs, and inflation. But in the shorter to medium term, until the quantum issue is further resolved, I do think upside volatility is somewhat capped. And in an environment with many compelling opportunities: AI, robotics, space, energy, just to name a few, there is less need to be overexposed. You might ask me now, Brian, why not wait until after this has been resolved? And that's a great question. Markets are not perfectly efficient, but they aren't bad. Let's say this is resolved in 3 years by April of 2029, and BTC now runs smoothly and quantum-proof. Everyone who can access their coins can move them, etc... BTC will be much higher than 70k. It will be much higher than the current ATH of 126k. You will have to pay for this certainty. Always trade-offs. And that's why we have markets. tl;dr BTC is still a worthy investment and belongs in a portfolio due to its high-risk, high-EV profile. But it shouldn’t be an outsized position for most people unless they are actively managing it. With this year likely marking a bear market bottom, and with the quantum overhang still present, it’s a good time to add exposure, but not something that needs to be rushed. Those are my thoughts fam.

@dankness3 @Mister_Keating You need to have a tough convo with… yourself

@Mister_Keating Always a seat open for you on Coinpoker big boss. Make sure to use promo code SHILLJAFFE if you haven’t signed up yet

Poker politics - no seat for me today. GL all.

@Mister_Keating get in here 😭 tilt 5betting more than half his stack and folding😭😭😭

@haralabob @buyerofponzi The thing I always liked about commodity markets is that at the end of the day it isn’t about what people say but about supply and demand

Oil +11%. SPX flat. You can’t fake energy. They’re trying anyway. Everything else has been deracinated into futures, options, and Babylonian money magic, completely detached from reality. This isn’t new. It’s just never been this obvious.

@MikeMcDonald89 😂

We tipping 35% or 40?

@TylerDurden It comes down to if you want to turn all your ideas into code and a working product then claude is key. The value is for building not for looking things up.

Tell me why I need Claude or a clawd bot? I don’t think I need more than grok currently which is a search engine on steroids. Convince me otherwise and I’ll send you $500 in bitcoin.

#bitcoin break long-term trendline and is trading under 0.20/USD now. Time to buy or market collapse?

@CryptoCronkite Except the price of eggs goes down when he buys

Saylor could be the “egg man” and nobody is talking about it 🚨 A trader thinks that the prices of eggs are going to increase, and so he contacts his broker and asks him to buy 1,000,000 egg futures at $1.70 Sure enough, a week later, the price of egg futures is $2.50, and the trader, happy to ride his winners, places an order for 3,000,000 more egg futures Next month, at $4.30 a piece, he pats himself on the back and restructures his liquid investments to buy another 10,000,000 egg futures At the end of the quarter, egg futures are trading at $7, and the trader finally calls up his broker and tells him to sell them all The broker replies: “To who? You’re the egg man!”

@MikeMcDonald89 When you adding 3% more lol. It’s like the MSTR announcement except I want to tail the buy not fade it.

Added 3%

aight 600k back on the table

@CelsiusEnergyFM I’ve been reporting them but obv bot problems on this site

Please note: There have been fake "Caelsius Energy" accounts created that link to "trading strategies" or some such nonsense. These are NOT affiliated with Celsius Energy. All Commentaries & data are exclusively on the webpage while all trade alerts will be emailed directly. I am working to get these blocked.

@MikeMcDonald89 Been waiting for this