@WesleyJMattox Is this setup actually different,
or just the usual leaders vs laggards dynamic?
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Things Noticed
1.3K posts
Things Noticed
@thingsnoticed
Applied uncertainty. Markets, stocks, risk, and why knowing is rarely enough.
Tham gia Ekim 2020
57 Đang theo dõi837 Người theo dõi
Leaders are in the top right hand corner of their charts and have hardly given anything back in terms of price. As expected, they are hard to buy up here and appear extended, but their next runs may just be getting started. It is tempting to play stocks for the "catch up play," but they're all below their 50-day MAs and trading at their intraday lows! Don't fall for it. Roy and I have established a couple of small positions and will add to them if they are working for us. Ideally the Nasdaq can stay trading above the 50-day for several days and prove itself to us and continue to pull us in.
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@JonahLupton Strong ops oil down .
Yet muted price $TMDX
Market still anchored
to fuel fears?
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$TMDX averaging 33.5 flights per day through 7+ days in April and oil down -16% today.
$TMDX only up +1.2% today seems wrong :)
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton
$TMDX -- quality note/report this morning from Oppenheimer... they reiterated their buy rating... they reiterated their $175 price target... they made the following comments regarding fuel surcharge debate: "We have spent the last few weeks talking to various players in the space, and assessing potential impact to $TMDX. From what we can gather: 1) $TMDX is passing incremental fuel surcharges to hospitals, which may range from $4,000-$5,000/flight 2) Even in a worst case scenario where $TMDX would have to absorb all incremental costs, cumulative impact based on Q1 flight hours is $2.5-$5M We did talk to other logistics providers in the organ transplantation space and were apprised that surcharge pass-throughs are standard in hospital contracts. $TMDX seems no different. The disproportionate concerns on business impact from jet fuels may be misplaced" NFA. DYOR. *I own $TMDX personally *We own $TMDX at @FirstWaveFund Have a nice day :)
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$SPX is up strong today.
Gaps are impressive,
but often followed by consolidation.
No need to catch the bottom.
Wait for the trend to confirm.
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@alc2022 Interesting framing.
Feels like narrative is moving faster than fundamentals here — especially for healthcare.
Curious how you think about monetization timelines for $HIMS vs pure AI scaling?
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Healthcare and education are about go through their ChatGPT moment.
Their Mythos moment won’t take long right after.
$HIMS and $DUOL aren’t what they seem.
Few understand.
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@alc2022 $PLTR makes more cash.
So where is the link,
model capability or contracts?
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$pltr free cash flow per share is a direct function of AI scaling laws
as AI models gets smarter, $pltr makes more cash
linear thinkers are fucked
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@HyperTechInvest $HIMS CFO selling?
maybe he needs a new car.
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$HIMS CFO, who has access to all the financials in real time, just proposed selling 75% of his shares
Hims House@himshouse
🚨 BREAKING: $HIMS CFO YEMI OKUPE FILES TO SELL 240K SHARES (≈$4.9 MILLION) Okupe owns 319k shares as of Mar 20 This sale is part of a 10b5-1 pre-planned trading plan adopted in May 2025 It is the largest proposed sale of all time by Okupe
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Things noticed on $AMZN’s future
AWS still the engine
💠~18% of revenue, ~57% of operating income
and growing faster than the core
💠ads + AI chips (Trainium / Graviton) scaling
💠international outpacing domestic
💠mix shift = margin expansion + growth acceleration
but
💠~$200B capex planned for 2026
💠AI + infrastructure buildout will pressure margins near term
💠 you’re betting that this spend
turns into durable returns later
execution is the trade.
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@TradingComposur “Change your habits.”
Sounds simple.
I noticed habits follow identity,
not intention.
If you don’t build habits intentionally,
you just reinforce your existing patterns.
So what are you repeating
every day?
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Your life is just a collection of habits.
If you want to steer your life in some wanted direction
... change your habits.
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@thingsnoticed I still call these companies Google and Twitter — I don’t think I’ll ever stop 🤣
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Everpure sounds like a VC backed company that sells soaps and essential oils… not a $20B publicly traded data storage company.
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@JonahLupton Not to mention Alphabet and X … I dont like those either.
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@thingsnoticed Obviously fundamentals matter more but I was critical when Facebook changed their name to Meta and then the ticker went from $FB to $META. It was stupid then and it’s even more stupid now since they’ve basically shutdown the metaverse strategy.
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If this is true,
it’s not just about flows,
it’s about asset pricing.
Higher yields,
lower multiples.
So are markets even pricing
that kind of regime?
Ben Norton@BenjaminNorton
Bloomberg acknowledges that the US war on Iran is backfiring, undermining the petrodollar system that gives the US empire so much power. Gulf regimes are exporting significantly less oil, and they're not reinvesting those petrodollars in US assets. Meanwhile, many foreign central banks have been selling US Treasury securities (US government debt) to prevent their currencies from depreciating, leading to US bond yields rising markedly -- not falling, as they typically did in past crises, when investors engaged in a "flight to safety". The US financial sector is losing its perception of having "safe haven" status. This means that both key aspects of the petrodollar system are breaking: there are fewer oil exports in dollars (Iran wants oil to be traded in Chinese yuan), and there are fewer petrodollars recycled into US financial assets.
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@patientinvestor Yes, robot fleet is scaling fast,
but very quietly.
Not a new product
no clear revenue line,
just embedded in operations.
So how much of this
is even visible to investors?
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Amazon Robotics is quietly scaling at an insane pace.
From 20K robots in 2014 to 1M by 2025! $AMZN
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@TmarketL It seems like edge disappears
before execution even starts.
Cash is a position
when conditions aren’t.
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I wanted to talk about a crucial aspect of trading that often gets overlooked: the market backdrop.
Trading when the market conditions are unfavorable – when breadth is weak, and sector charts are rolling over – is like trying to swim with a 50-pound weight vest. It’s challenging, exhausting, and more often than not, you'll probably not make it far.
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Things noticed from Q1 2026
💠oil, telecom, materials are leading
💠while software, AI, China internet are breaking down.
Looks like rotation.
💠but the index isn’t equal-weighted.
💠tech still dominates the $SPX (S&P), energy is still small.
💠so even strong moves in commodities
can’t offset weakness in large tech.
💠narrative: new leaders emerging
💠reality: old leaders still drive the index
💠this isn’t a new regime yet,
just pressure where it matters most
Price hasn’t confirmed a shift
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@Mayhem4Markets “well-hedged” sounds like stability,
but hedging is fuel, not protection.
If positioning is crowded
moves get amplified, not dampened.
I see it more like stored volatility.
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One reason it's hard to push this market down too much? 🤔
It's incredibly well-hedged.
You can see it in the short interest below.
It's also evident in index options positioning, particularly within $SPX.
Chart: Deutsche Bank
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@SJosephBurns market wants “certainty”
but the paths aren’t symmetric
ceasefire → risk premium comes out
escalation → risk premium expands fast
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So in the next 36 hours, based on Trump's deadline, we can either get an Iran ceasefire deal or the US attacking Iran's infrastructure. The market just wants some certainty either way.
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@oguzerkan potential is obvious
84% haven’t used AI
only ~0.3% are paying
but usage is not equal monetization
free users don’t fund capex
so the question isn’t adoption
it’s conversion
that’s where the real risk sits
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Underplaying AI’s economic potential is a big mistake.
You can discuss whether there is undue risk taking or overbuilding for the short term, but the potential is obvious.
84% of the world population has never used AI and only 0.3% are paying for it.
By comparison, 74% of the world population is paying for the internet in some form.
We are just scratching the surface of its economic potential.
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@oguzerkan circular flows sound alarming,
but hyperscalers always finance their own ecosystems.
the question is
whether demand and returns are real
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Here is OpenAI’s problem:
They need to go public to raise all the money they need.
But they aren’t ready for public market scrutiny. Imagine having to disclose all the details of the circular deals below…
How long before the market screams “ENRON”?
Polymarket Money@PolymarketMoney
JUST IN: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar is reportedly concerned about the company’s plan to spend $600B on infrastructure over the next 5 years.
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