turtlehare

未來幾個月有重要的事情需要處理，因此將會停止更新一陣子，大概到明年夏末才有可能重新連載。這週我就把之前幾個不成一篇的想法放在這邊，替今年的2020年代風雲做一個小結。 vocus.cc/article/68de17…

你支持台灣向美國購買武器嗎？ 為了遏阻中國入侵台灣，行政院去年 11 月提出 8 年 1.25 兆元的國防特別預算，除了發展國內國防產業，也將向美國採購武器，但相關法案卻被中國國民黨和民眾黨聯手阻擋，在立法院程序委員會封殺了 10 次，連一讀都無法。 此事引起美國跨黨派的議員關注，聯名致函立法院及朝野各黨領袖，立法院長韓國瑜才協調在野黨，完成法案付委，目前法案已經完成委員會審查，但朝野歧異仍大，外界也質疑藍白將改以降低金額到約 4000 億元、刪除項目的方式繼續阻擋國防特別預算。 被認為有望代表中國國民黨角逐 2028 總統大選的台中市長盧秀燕最近訪問美國回來後，主張合理的國防特別預算應該在 8000 億元到 1 兆元之間，還強調「全球都在搶武器，我們要確定可以要到這批武器」，與即將訪問中國的黨主席鄭麗文、國民黨立委們都不同調。 台灣民意又是怎麼看待對美軍購？根據中研院「美國肖像」計畫的最新民調，台灣有高達七成、69.5% 的民意支持向美國軍購。其中以民進黨的支持者最高，有高達九成六，95.9％ 支持，而中國國民黨的支持者最低，只有不到一半、46% 支持對美軍購，民眾黨的支持者則也有超過六成，64% 支持對美軍購。 你支持台灣向美國購買武器嗎？

開戰後一個月，伊朗的飛彈發射量剩開戰時的2%（350=>14） 無人機發射量剩原本的15% （295=>45） ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M…

@SKgic9h7u31496 @SakunaiHinata 扁時代水果日報是親國黨的，一直到中國開殺香港企業後，水果日報才報復性反國黨，但他們在意識形態上還是港中那套，也就是反中國黨的中國人。

@SakunaiHinata 是的，黎智英反共與否真的不重要。中國人反共，只是因為他的利益被共產黨動到了。 如果黎是一個正派的人，當年就不會隨著馬一起壓榨台灣年輕人了。 不論是反送中、反共，中國人天性是不會改變的。作為鄰國必須提高警覺，切忌一時情緒上來而被騙進中國的內鬥。 wealth.com.tw/articles/23485…

日本人が知らない在台香港人の悪行　その五　台湾不動産投機 画像通り、隣国台湾では、今の日本と同じく、香港人による住宅不動産爆買いにより、台湾の若者が家が買えない羽目になった 特に香港反送中運動2019年には、香港人が台湾に大量移住し、台湾の住宅価格は一気に高騰した

@dying_zz 被沉沒成本拉住，不如放棄跟團還比較好。桌遊要的是樂趣，如果沒樂趣那就只是工作罷了。

跑團跟帶團的初期很有熱誠，但若隨著時間推移而熱情的動力沒有一直維持著，就會變得不像在遊戲了。

@Fublplaysit81 @Thor_Odinson This is normal; FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is GW's business model. If many Warhammer models were truly selling as well as GW fans claim, AOS wouldn't be coming to an end.

@Thor_Odinson Weird because it did sell out on the preorder day after about 5 hrs and was unavailble for a few days now its showing in stock wondering if gw is trying to take their profits by selling it and short shipped the 3rd party stores to make as much as they can direct to consumer

Hard to deny this is anything other than an unmitigated disaster. The likelihood is that they cut the stock going out to game stores so they wouldn’t have the visual of hundreds of boxes worldwide shelfwarming, like the Horus Heresy V3 box (I’m not sure it was that box, so please correct me if I’m wrong), which a lot of stores ended up selling at cost just to get their money back. Hell of a costly disaster just to “own the chuds”.

@BillSwiggart @AuronMacintyre What if the people of the 19th century were right? Much of what we now call "science" is not science at all by 19th-century standards; it is more of a technology disguised as science or some kind of postmodern nonsense.

@AuronMacintyre Hmm, interesting, but it seems of a piece with the proud assurances that were made around the turn of the 19th century that the US Patent Office might as well be shuttered because everything that could be invented had been.

Oswald Spengler predicts a spiritual crisis in America and Europe that will lead to the end of science as we understand it

@HonorAndDaring @AuronMacintyre To get closer to "completion," science has physical limits. In classical civilizations, people regarded the completion of a science as a gift from the gods, while only in the West would it be regarded as a negative thing.

@AuronMacintyre Yes, Spengler was just documenting the process. But it is bad for us in that it means the civilization is on the way out.

Taiwan is not an unincorporated overseas territory of the United States. That is a scam theory developed by a group of grifters who prey on elderly people selling fake US IDs. It has been knocked down by the US courts.

@Anfernee_J @JohnIsomers 香港人的邏輯:你反港澳條例就是要把它們堵在香港給共產黨殺，所以你是小粉紅。 當然我對香港的看法就是，香港人移民到台灣就是香港人-1，中國人+1，所以我反港澳條例。

@JohnIsomers 我不太懂為啥小粉紅會反港澳條例 只有支那人才會支持港澳條例吧

記得2022年反港澳時有一個旅美滯台支也是把頭像換成搞笑習近平，說那些反港澳條例的都是小粉紅，換頭像可以嚇跑他們...😑 這些中華豚的膝反射都一樣

@Powers61 柯已經沒有宋省長的待遇了，28年還是藍綠對決，之後白黨就跟新黨一樣泡沫化消失。

@turtlehare184 藍準備併吞白

柯垮了之後其實就沒有藍白了，現在只有藍沒有白。

對於這幾個月台海的演變，我的看法 1.美國延後跟中國的談判其實是對中國施壓，要求中國背叛伊朗。 2.跟俄羅斯不一樣，中國已經沒有閒錢能養第二道戰線，因此中國極有可能背叛伊朗，求美國放棄對台軍售。 3.當然美國很難放棄對台軍售，所以最終還會變成島內政爭決定一切的狀態。

中國人跟庫德人很像（x） 庫德人只要離開庫德斯坦就是庫德人-1，垃圾難民+1。還留在庫德斯坦的庫德人不大會爛掉。

@Reverend_Bayes @ArtemisConsort Perhaps this is because Sweden is a high-welfare society, where survival-related reasons for crime are eliminated. People who commit crimes even when not facing survival threats may have mental illnesses, and mental illnesses are often congenital.

@ArtemisConsort I don't get it. I'm sympathetic to innatist explanations, but economics shows people are mind-bogglingly sensitive to incentives. Wealth increases the opportunity cost of crime, but somehow doesn't causally promote it because we have a study on Swedish lottery winners?

To keep discussions about (particularly) social science grounded, it’s essential to always keep in mind “what potential policy decision is this result intended to inform?” You can show people results like this, and the dedicated environmentalists will retreat to “okay sure, a big cash infusion might not reduce crime in adults. It’s *growing up* in poverty that causes crime.” Then you can show them within-family evidence that this doesn’t appear to be the case either, and they’ll retreat to “okay sure, in this crude sense there’s not an effect of poverty on crime, but in some more nebulous and ephemeral sense there is” And yeah, you can always do this. You can god-of-the-gaps the environmentalist explanation and eventually hit on something unfalsifiable. But what policy is implied by it? We have to take kids from their families at birth and raise them in better environments? We have to provide not just piles of money but a totally economically impossible amount of mental healthcare and other forms of support to every poor person such that the nebulous, miasmatic spirit of poverty doesn’t turn their kids into criminals? We have to totally reorient our entire economy and politics around the quixotic quest to give them so much that they are transmuted into fundamentally different people, despite there being no solid evidence for *any* intentional interventions making a noticeable difference for things like intelligence? Seems easier and cheaper to just lock up criminals.

伊朗廢掉後，波斯灣基本上就是遜尼派的領域了，美國甚至不用親自維和，只要派人監軍跟收過路費即可 ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M…

中國包養伊朗的機率低，因為這意味著習近平徹底放棄和統跟中華民族偉大復興。習更有可能會拋棄伊朗，並將省下來的資源輸送給國民黨極和統派，並繼續假設陸地上的邊界會繼續凝固，八個大大絕不會入侵東突厥。

古巴已經被中國拋棄，還鄉團不可能放過他們。

We're about a month in, and here is a very brief summary of the current status of the war with Iran: (1) US-Israel has destroyed much of Iran's security and military-related infrastructure, destroyed most of its nuclear infrastructure, killed most of Iran's top leadership, and is increasingly targeting Iran's military-related manufacturing (including supply chain components). There is wide disagreement among US-Israel planners about how much of Iran's missile inventory has been destroyed or degraded, with estimates ranging from as little as 1/3 to as much as 90%. (2) Iran has adapted by focusing its attention on the Gulf (rather than Israel) and has had minor successes damaging key components of US and Gulf military assets, closed the Gulf to shipping, forced the US to refocus its efforts toward opening the Straits of Hormuz, and appears committed to a strategy of pushing the conflict toward one of costly and frustrating attrition. (3) The conflict is beginning to have more than a marginal impact on the global economy. (4) Possibilities in the coming weeks: The US invades Iranian islands in the Gulf and conducts land-based operations in key coastal areas of Iran in an attempt to reopen the Straits, the Houthis enter the conflict and impede shipping in the Red Sea, an overall higher-risk environment in which Iran and the Gulf States begin more significant targeting of key industrial infrastructure like oil processing facilities, Saudi attacks inside Yemen if the Houthis become more actively involved, a split between some more vulnerable smaller Gulf States and Saudi Arabia/UAE on the question of joining the US in more direct military engagement against Iran, and Russia expanding its cooperation with Iran beyond its current supply of satellite/targeting information.

@HMBohemond Even if the company's top management realizes that this will cause them to lose money, they may still go their own way because the ideological elite who hold shares don't care about losing money. They would rather the IP be destroyed than make money because of "fascism".

I get the anger, but you have to look at this from a rational perspective: Unpopular lore is often just ignored or outright written off. Whole novels, games, and even movies exist that aren't canon even if Games Workshop still sells then. And things like the Custode in the Scouring can easily be written off, like Sanguinius having black hair in Horus Rising. The 'boob armor,' funny as it is, is barely noticeable. It's good to laugh at but honestly a nothingburger. Hell, female Stormcast armor are more gendered in design by comparison. But what's telling here is the people making the final decisions have zero confidence in this. I have my theories about what's going on behind the scenes, but corporate is obviously aware this is hurting the brand and underproducing the FOMO boxes to save on potential losses. It's also clear the Scouring is in danger due to the retcon. Ashes of the Imperium wasn't a hit, and may have even been a flop. They've already released articles tempering expectations of how long the series will be. Even if GW corporate are out of touch morons who only care about money, when there's a string of flops and bad press they take notice. We'll see how things play out, but the signs are present.