Anthony Bardaro

Naisbitt once said “We're drowning in information but starved for knowledge.” 58% now suffer fm info overload -- so Annotote’s knowledge network gives highlights of everything u need to read and lets u annotate anything u want to save or share. Do it >>> annotote.launchrock.com

@TheStalwart Keep running it back... x.com/i/status/18855…

@TheStalwart ...related: x.com/i/status/20361…

How unusual is this in game theory, where one of the participants benefits from having established a reputation as the one who chickens out?

/0 …AI labs and datacenter funding runways – updated 2026/03 (x.com/AnthPB/status/…): "TLDR: With funding runways now extended for at least +18 months, another 2 years worth of exponential decay (disinflation) in training/inference cost plus another 10x in token consumption (user adoption) certainly gives foundational AI labs better odds of reaching breakeven/profitability – the Goldilocks scenario a la history's prior bust-free-booms"

/1 …AI funding runways (cont'd) – "Center of Gravity" AI labs/startups: "the funding runways for major AI startups/labs at the start of 2026 have now been extended years into the future, with xAI likely not needing cash until late 2027; OpenAI ~2028; and Anthropic likely even later"

/2 …AI funding runways (cont'd) – "Center of Mass" AI datacenters: "datacenter commitments are where we have a structural funding gap of ~$2.76T (53% of the aggregate total)… the funding mix shift from equity and cash flow toward debt financing [is expected to fill-the-gap, increasing] from about one-third of this year's AI capex flows to about half of that capex by decade-end – and from 9% of 2024's total AI funding to 40% by 2028"

Venture capital and artificial intelligence – fundraising by AI startups in 2025h1 (axios.com/2025/07/03/ai-…): 🌍 global: 29% of VC funding rounds 53% of VC investment dollars 🇺🇸 US: 36% of VC funding rounds 64% of VC investment dollars ~33% to only 5 companies

@JavierBlas 🤷... x.com/i/status/20361…

The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after 25 days of Hormuz almost full closure is almost surreal.

…seems underappreciated: 1️⃣ how compute intensive (token consumptive) agentic AI is – especially fully autonomous generative coding assistants with OS/MCP/browser extension access 2️⃣ how low Anthropic's Claude Code daytime token limits are (surge pricing), despite consumer surplus¹, incentivizing overnight² workloads (load balancing off peak hours) __ ¹x.com/i/status/20301… ²x.com/i/status/20267…

…so imho the way to vibe code atm is to use the best AI coding assistant of the moment (Claude Code Opus 4.6 or GPT 5.3 Codex) in your IDE/CLI, but continually consulting another LLM on the side (Gemini etc), esp when AI gets stuck/hallucinates/lossy memory – do I not see tweeps recommend this because either: 🅰️ nobody wants to admit their skills issue (projecting public programming/prompting flawlessness) 🅱️ everybody choosing manual (forgoing more fully automated efficiency/productivity of outsourcing more workflow to AIs) 🅾️ it's me, hi, I'm the problem, it's me (aitoo?!)

We launched Gemini 3 a week ago and the community response has been incredible! 🚀 We're listening: What features or capabilities would you like to see next? Drop your wishlists below👇

…Dario said we're building for "a country of geniuses in a datacenter" and datacenters just surpassed office construction spending (structures only) – bet educated guesses would've had that crossover's over/under between CHIPS Act and SVB (8/2022 - 3/2023) #cre #ai #capex

…more recently: x.com/i/status/19854…

Any educated forecasts, models, estimates, expectations, or consensus for the future path of Biden's US manufacturing construction boom (x.com/AnthPB/status/…) – e.g. 👇 1️⃣ wen peak? 2️⃣ deceleration/path? 3️⃣ transition to manufacturing output and jobs? #stimulus #incentives

…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (as of 3/20) – ngl, deficit and AI notwithstanding, maintaining this velocity amidst all the noise is really impressive, so let's see as tax season and Iran war wear on: 👍+4.9% mtd yoy (growth rate +30bps mom² and +4.6pp qoq) ___ ¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily… #dts) ²calendar effects (one less weekday in January 2026 vs 2025 and two less than 2024 ytd, so yoy comps not truly apples-to-apples, albeit mitigated by my weekday average adjustment

…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (as of 2/27) – at February month-end, the new year's reacceleration maintained velocity, after 2025YE's low run-rate in the wake of October government shutdown: 👍+4.7% mtd yoy (growth rate -90bps mom² and +4.6pp qoq) ___ ¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily… #dts) ²calendar effects (one less weekday in January 2026 vs 2025 and two less than 2024 ytd, so yoy comps not truly apples-to-apples, albeit mitigated by my weekday average adjustment

Halfway thru Sept - payroll taxes do seem to be slowing (though tough comp vs Sept LY). Remains to be seen if this is just a wobble or something more ominous.

@EconomPic …not the most egregious intellectual dishonesty eva, but I call em like I see em – and this variety of chart crime (‘zoom in tight on time series to prove your point even though slightly longer term trend proves counterfactual’™️) is common: citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insig…

@EconomPic …one of the very best chart crimes – the double log scale axis trick attempting to prove some nebulous relationship between per capita electricity consumption and income (GDP), which is actually low correlation at linear scale: x.com/i/status/20266… #chartcrime

cc @EconomPic

…MAGA horsemen of their own apocalypse – legislating/policymaking/jawboning into existence nonexistent fabricated GOP crises (cont'd): 2️⃣9️⃣ insider trading by Congress, administration, and Washington staffers/insiders/donors/frens x.com/i/status/20360… #Trump #draintheswamp

…MAGA horsemen of their own apocalypse – legislating/policymaking/jawboning into existence nonexistent fabricated GOP crises (cont'd): 2️⃣8️⃣ Iran negotiations and foreign wars – timeline¹… 2014 - 2015: Candidate Trump criticizes President Obama's Iran negotiations, warning of risks from what he saw as weakness. 2015/07: JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) reached by US, EU, China, Russia, Germany, France, and UK – limiting Iran’s nuclear program (enrichment/centrifuges/stockpiles) in exchange for sanctions relief. IAEA verified initial compliance. 2018/05: President Trump withdraws US from the JCPOA, calling it flawed (sunset provisions; no missile/ballistic limits; regional behavior unaddressed) and reimposing sanctions ("maximum pressure"); and stating a better deal is possible. 2018 - 2020: No new agreement is negotiated by Trump. Iran remains in compliance initially but later begins incremental breaches after US withdrawal. Some US officials and arms control experts later question long-term effects of exiting the deal. 2021 - 2024: Biden admin indirect talks aim to restore mutual JCPOA compliance, but stall without agreement. Iran accelerates uranium enrichment (to 60%+), expands stockpiles, and restricts IAEA access – shortening breakout time. 2025: Trump restarts direct Iran talks, which yield no deal. 2025/06: Israel strikes Iranian nuclear sites, military leaders, and proxies – US joins with targeted strikes on nuclear facilities, after which Trump states Iran's nuclear program was "obliterated". 2025Q4 - 2026/02: Antigovernment protests erupt in Iran amid economic crisis and crackdowns. No new nuclear agreement is reached. 2026/02/28: American and Israeli forces launch coordinated major strikes on Iranian military, nuclear-related, and regime targets. Trump announces the operation, urges Iranians to "take over your government", framing it as advancing freedom/regime change alongside eliminating threats. __ ¹x.com/i/grok/share/1…

MAGA horsemen of their own apocalypse – inverse Cassandra preparedness paradox, psyop crisis that doesn't exist > gain power > engineer 😱 into existence: 1️⃣ executive overreach 2️⃣ free speech 3️⃣ debt/deficits 4️⃣ foreign policy/trade 5️⃣ election donors 6️⃣ immigration #GOP #trump

…you hear that? it’s the sound of $aapl perma fanbois scurrying to find another new ex post rationalization for their moral superiority complex – something something enshittification 🤷: > “Apple is launching ads in Apple Maps…. major advertising expansion”

…has the discounted value of $aapl's future cash flows sufficiently accounted for this event risk? "US district court judge denies Apple's emergency motion to halt the remedy trial of DOJ v Google search monopoly case" theverge.com/news/605342/ap… $googl #tac

/1 I would love to see Facebook fight-the-good-fight against the App Store Tax and Apple's principal-agent problem... Would be such irony; rubber and glue; etc... reuters.com/article/us-fac… $AAPL $FB #ios