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Jake
105.3K posts
Jake
@EconomPic
An optimist who assumes everyone is full of shit or lazy. Smart because he forgets. Fuck everyone against sensible gun reform. 👨👩👦👦👶🏻🐶🍔🍺🏀⚾️📊🤘
East Bay via NY via PSU via NJ Katılım Şubat 2009
585 Takip Edilen42.9K Takipçiler
@EconomPic Note that other investors impact your returns in public markets too.
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The current premium of private credit over public market equivalents is what created this problem given quarterly redemptions are capped.
It incentives all investors to max withdrawal regardless of their long-term outlook or fundamentals.
I figure there are 3 options 1) gate the funds 2) convert to a Closed-End Fund 3) sell their holdings to what actually transacts so can provide liquidity.
Once the highest quality stuff is sold, guessing no way they pursue #3.
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Jake retweetledi
Last year, Donald Trump Jr. invested in a rare earths startup at a $200 million valuation.
Then three months later, the US government announced a huge loan backstop for the company and now it's worth around $2 billion.
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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@NikolozTskitis1 @DKThomp people had been "it's amazing he had so much first hand exposure to these people" and then IMO you realize it's the stories he write that makes the people seem amazing
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@EconomPic @DKThomp Having only read two of his books, Lewis mostly writes “profiles” and then synthesizes the profiles into a “narrative.” The resulting narrative is often good and enjoyable, but remains synthetic.
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I had no idea that the real-life Moneyball boy genius whom Jonah Hill's character was based on went on to become a key architect of the DeShaun Watson trade for the Cleveland Browns, which might be one of the worst roster moves in sports history
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Jake retweetledi
Chris Christie unloading on Jared Kushner's father.
Crazy story -- Charles Kushner hired a prostitute to seduce his sister's husband on hidden video, then used the recording to dissuade her from cooperating in the federal criminal case against him:
youtu.be/U-xT3ilk51c
YouTube
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@HML_Compounder I mean… he ran on saying there would be no long term wars for the U.S. that aren’t in our direct interests and is now asking for $200B which would indicate a war of 8+ months.
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@HML_Compounder My guess is he didn’t think the straight would be effectively shut down as cost of living and interest rates seem like two of his largest societal economic interests. At this point, do you think 4-5 weeks is the base case?
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@EconomPic I feel a bit crazy with all the takes suggesting that this has gone poorly compared to what say Trump would've expected. I would say this is an above average outcome so far.
What did people think the expectation was? 24 hours of bombing and they say uncle?
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Agree… except the come home to Doubleline part
x.com/TruthGundlach/…
Jeffrey Gundlach@TruthGundlach
On Wall Street: 2005-2006: “Hey! We found a way to turn BBB ratings into AAA ratings. And pocket the difference!!” 2024-2025: “Hey! We found a way put illiquid assets into liquid funds. And pocket the difference!!” Come home to DoubleLine.
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@EconomPic Commodity squeeze could send rates higher but eventually cause a demand destruction —> recession
I’d imagine rates up first then way down
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Frankly I think this is the only major asset left in this cycle that is truly hated and beaten down
Everything else has run already
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Good thing DOGE saved us that $2T or we’d never be able to afford this
Jeff Stein@JStein_WaPo
SCOOP: The Pentagon asked the White House today for more than *$200 billion* for the Iran war supplemental, sources say Some White House aides think Congress won't support b/c it's so big Will tee up giant battle in Congress
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@EconomPic Def not. But inflation will eventually come down in that scenario right?
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@EconomPic I’m definitely biased as I think a recession is In the cards this year
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@EconomPic need a poll to see if conservatives are bullish and liberals bearish
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@EconomPic If I was an existing shareholder I’d be pissed they gave 11%.
The problem isn’t even the structure per se, it’s the other investors you are with.
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@MFintwit The issue isn’t the asset class… it’s the structure. Credit may be fine, but we’re probably going to find out the price people are willing to buy it for when people want to sell shortly x.com/EconomPic/stat…
Jake@EconomPic
@HighyieldHarry i think it's how it was marketed... the issue with PC isn't the asset class, but how it was pitched and structured. i think most assume PE is high vol and illiquid, while PC was often pitched as the IG fixed income replacement for retail
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