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Monster CME gap up on both books, don’t even need the hourly chart for this one.
✅ $BTC positive MACD switch
✅ $ETH positive MACD switch.
Crypto summer is now.
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SuperCycle
10.5K posts
SuperCycle
@BTCSuperCycle
Tech & Crypto swing trading. https://t.co/iK5NrzOxtI
Palo Alto, CA 加入时间 Mart 2022
195 关注1.6K 粉丝
SuperCycle 已转推
Classic overreaction. @OpenAI @AnthropicAI
It's really a transfer of growth from OpenAI to Anthropic. You can't ignore that a competitor grew 10x in the same period.
Combined ARR of the top two AI labs: $54 billion. A year ago it was under $10 billion. Take a good look at the graph. The overall growth is parabolic and I am not including all the other smaller players (Grok, Gemini, Copilot, etc).
That is what a healthy competitive market looks like.
Mundane tasks were just the beginning. Complex reasoning, research, decisions. All of it is being absorbed by AI with human input in the loop.
The combined growth curve is more bullish than ever. That is the only number that matters.
Accurate Signals over Noise.
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SuperCycle 已转推
"An OPEC exit was the price we had to pay to get USD swaps."
Translated it for you.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
UAE ENERGY MINISTER SAYS OPEC EXIT IS A RESULT OF POLICY CHANGES.
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SuperCycle 已转推
Most profitable companies in the world (2027)
1. Samsung $400B
2. SK Hynix $300B
3. Nvidia $275B
7. Micron $175B
Bloomberg Data
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SuperCycle 已转推
@TheGeorgePu Con of a lifetime. Who would give up exponential assets that go up 1100% three years in row for real estate that can be rented for sub 2% yield
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$4.85M Bay Area home for sale.
Cash not accepted.
Anthropic shares only.
The seller's a banker.
The buyer he wants is a 28-year-old Anthropic engineer.
Who has stock but no cash.
Houses in the Bay are now priced in pre-IPO equity.
This used to be a joke.
Now it's on LinkedIn.
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If you buy $ARM tomorrow
You have 11.7/10 mental illness
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Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory.
But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently.
$TSM also signaled record capex across the board.
But just like $LPK in glass core substrates...
There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan.
That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles.
Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.
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SuperCycle 已转推
$MU $DRAM
Why are AMD NVDA GOOGL & MSFT locking into 5 year memory contracts with guaranteed price floors & upfront payments?
I thought memory was cyclical.
I thought you just wait 6 months for the crash and buy cheap.
They are not waiting. They went all in. Five years. Why?
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Are we doing this again? Two years in a row? Melt up all the way till the first week of Oct?
Steve Hou@stevehou
Here comes the summer equity melt-up
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SuperCycle 已转推
NOW: 🇯🇵 Metaplanet has taken over the Las Vegas Sphere 👀
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Had a Jane Street interview in 2014
At the end of my 5th round, was told to “look for a sign” for instructions to my 6th round
A week goes by. I thought maybe I didn’t make it.
I’m out on a Saturday in Gramercy. I go up to bar to order drinks. Some guy is wearing a fi-bro vest behind me when I turn around
He tells me, “chug that”
?? “Who are you?!?”
“Your 6th round. Chug that”
I instantly knew this was my sign. I impressed him with my 3.5 sec beer chug. He noted “above average of 6.2 seconds”
He told me to close my eyes
“Give me the count of girls in this bar and how many blondes is it”
“46 with 13 blondes” I knew instantly
“Situational awareness at all times. Good.”
Then he turned around and left.
I get a call the next day at 5am. I answer “good to see you always online like a true sell sider you are. When can you start working for us?”
I said “is the pay 100% commission?”
“No? We aren’t that cool”
“Never mind then”
Deedy@deedydas
Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before. At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine. I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed. Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are - Tether ($90M+ profit/emp) - Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp) and on revenue: - Valve ($50M/emp) - OnlyFans ($37M/emp) - Craigslist ($14M/emp) - Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate) - OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate) For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.
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SuperCycle 已转推
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some:
Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start).
Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle:
-> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first
I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y)
-> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable)
-> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now)
-> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years.
Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything.
But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different.
For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML.
There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things.
But you're extremely early to new architecture generations.
What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free.
Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
Rabbit@rabbitrun97o
@aleabitoreddit Missed the opportunity to make money by investing in photonics. Do you think there is 50% upside from here?
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SuperCycle 已转推
Are we sure that the US economy will come to a halt just because of the war?
Remember the leads/lags of a macroeconomy friends..
Boom first!
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