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Contingency Planner

@ContingencyBTC

#Bitcoin, Orange Pill Pusher, Sound Money Advocate, and End the Fed. I detest sh!tcoiners and socialists.

加入时间 Ağustos 2015
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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
Michael Saylor's Strategy snaps up another 114.6 BTC today through STRC issuance.
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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
Five years ago, telling your mortgage lender you owned Bitcoin was a red flag. Today, Fannie Mae is backing home loans where Bitcoin IS the down payment. That's not a crypto startup. That's the U.S. government's mortgage backbone treating Bitcoin as collateral with the same protections as a conventional 30-year home loan. Here's what changed: 41% of American families fail to buy a home because they can't scrape together the cash for a down payment. Not because they're broke. Because their wealth is locked in assets they'd have to sell, triggering capital gains, paperwork, and a tax bill that eats the down payment itself. Bitcoiners know this trap better than anyone. You're sitting on life-changing wealth and the system punishes you for trying to use it. This product eliminates that wall. Pledge BTC or USDC as collateral, receive a loan for the down payment, keep your Bitcoin, pay no capital gains. Rate is 0.5 to 1.5 points above standard depending on borrower profile. The key detail: no margin calls. No collateral top-ups. If Bitcoin drops in value, the mortgage terms remain unchanged and no additional collateral is required. Market movements alone never trigger liquidation. The only liquidation risk is a 60-day payment delinquency, same as any conventional mortgage. This is how billionaires have operated for decades. Borrow against assets, never sell. Private banks built empires on this model for the ultra-wealthy. The difference now: it's available to anyone holding Bitcoin on an exchange. The real story isn't the product. It's what Fannie Mae's involvement signals. A government-sponsored enterprise formally underwriting Bitcoin-collateralized debt means the U.S. housing system no longer views Bitcoin as speculation. It views it as wealth. That's a classification shift that took 15 years to happen and will be impossible to reverse.
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D.
Peter St Onge, Ph.D.@profstonge·
California is bankrupt, Washington DC is bankrupt, Wall Street is bankrupt. The livestock -- er, voters -- are the only thing holding the Ponzi up.
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea

BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt" "People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union. "$250 billion to $1 trillion short." "This is because for California to get rescued would be a big cost to red states, & I think it creates in the years ahead a lot of tension." "California's functional bankruptcy is a major risk to the country. & I think we need to figure out what we can change to fix it." How we got here: "California has a public pension system, & that public pension system retirees have paid into it & they get some benefits out, & the amount that they're owed back out is somewhere between $250 billion - $1 trillion dollars more than has been paid in. $250 billion to $1 trillion short. If it was the federal government, it would be like, okay, we'll just print more money. California doesn't have the ability to print money, so California has to pay this out, and you can't restructure retirement benefits. There is a Supreme Court case in California that said that once an employee has been offered retirement benefits, even if they're currently an employee, you can never restructure their retirement benefits. It has to stay forever, and the state cannot declare bankruptcy. There's no way for the state to functionally declare bankruptcy. There's no law to allow it. No state has ever declared bankruptcy, and the retirement benefits sit senior to the bonds in California. So you have to pay out the retirement benefits before you pay out all the bond holders that have loaned California the money that they use to run all their programs and services." Hill & Valley Forum 2026 (@HillValleyForum)

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David
David@david_eng_mba·
$70K Matters More Than $69K Right Now. $69,100 spot $70,481 gamma flip $70,000 max gamma $70,000 call wall $68,000 put wall +$4M net gamma 53.6% realized vol 0.27% perp funding APR This is not a strong pin. Net gamma is basically flat. Pin probability to $70K is only 24.0%, and gamma concentration at the max strike is just 17.9%. So $70K is a gravity point, not a ceiling. It matters more than $69K because that is where max gamma and the call wall sit. The real catalyst is March 27. 43.7% of total gamma expires in 1 day. That means the pin can weaken quickly and volatility can expand fast once expiry clears.
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Watcher.Guru
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru·
JUST IN: Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital $MARA sells 15,133 BTC worth over $1 billion.
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Bitcoin Archive
Bitcoin Archive@BitcoinArchive·
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 $4 TRILLION mortgage lender Fannie Mae to accept Bitcoin as collateral on home loans for the first time — WSJ
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D.
Peter St Onge, Ph.D.@profstonge·
Banks face an existential threat to fractional reserve banking that pays 4% interest. While banks keep just 10 cents in the vault and pay 0.1% interest. Republicans in Congress, naturally, want to ban it.
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Marty Bent
Marty Bent@MartyBent·
Nvidia is worth $4 trillion. Jensen Huang says if your $500K engineer isn't spending $250K on AI, something is deeply wrong. He's right. We've seen it firsthand at TFTC. 6 people doing the work of 50. But here's what few are connecting: AI is eating the revenue of software companies that private credit funds underwrote when rates were near zero. Now those funds can't give people their money back: • Apollo: gated at 5% • Ares: gated at 5% • Industry: $10B+ in redemptions, only 70% honored • Goldman: $45-70B in outflows coming One guy used AI + public SEC filings to expose 50 non-accruals in a fund reporting zero. That fund's Sharpe ratio was higher than Madoff's. Meanwhile: the 20Y yield is back at 5%. Mortgages are approaching 7%. Oil is driving everything higher. Chaos is a ladder. Learn the tools. Keep bitcoin in cold storage. The case has never been stronger. tftc.io/ai-disrupting-…
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MARS SPITS BARS
MARS SPITS BARS@marsspitsbarz·
If you don’t know what this is I want to follow you
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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
Massive $580M oil short bet placed just 15 min before Trump’s “productive talks with Iran” post sent crude tumbling.
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
A 15-point plan to end the Iran War. Incredible. The modern state can’t pave a road, can’t balance a budget, can’t keep fentanyl out of a kindergarten parking lot, but suddenly we’re supposed to believe they’ve assembled a neat little PowerPoint to end a blood feud in the Middle East. You can just picture it, twelve consultants, three intelligence people, one sweating envoy, and some Lockheed ghoul in the back whispering, “Peace is important, but has anyone modeled a limited continuation scenario for Q3 earnings?” “Iran has agreed to many of the key points.” Many. Not all, many. That’s the language of a hostage negotiator who’s been up for 31 hours and is now just trying to get everyone to stop emailing him. It’s such a perfect diplomatic phrase because it means everything and nothing. It means the machine needs the headline now, details later, reality never.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: The US has developed a "15-point plan" to end the Iran War and claims that Iran has agreed to many of the key points, per Axios. Details include: 1. Proposal includes many of the same demands the US made during the last round of nuclear talks in Geneva 2. US envoy Steve Witkoff has told Trump that Iran has agreed on giving up their stockpile of highly enriched uranium 3. The document calls for zero uranium enrichment in Iran 4. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives Iran continues to deny that talks are taking place.

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Amir Handjani
Amir Handjani@ahandjani·
🚨 🚨It has taken me a while to process what is happening to Iran’s crude exports as we are truly in uncharted territory: 1. Even before the war began Iran was exported 1.5 million barrels a day and that was all going to China. 2. Over the weekend the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Iranian crude and Iran has started selling that crude to India for the first time since 2019. As it’s been attacking Iran. (Still hard for me to wrap my head around this). 3. The real story isn’t sanctions relief. It’s that Tehran has effectively privatized passage through the Straits of Hormuz. 4. In the middle of the war Iran has been negotiating bilaterally with 🇨🇳 , 🇮🇳, 🇵🇰, 🇧🇩 effectively letting tankers pass based on cargo origin and buyer identity (no Israeli or America cargoes are allowed to pass) 5. 🇯🇵, 🇫🇷 and 🇮🇹 have also started to negotiate with Tehran for part of their cargoes. Iran is treating passage through the Straits like 🇪🇬 treats passage through the Suez Canal. 6. This is unprecedented leverage that Iran didn’t have before the war and difficult to see them ever letting this go unless US offers something significant in return. 7. Iran has effectively managed to break 30 years of energy sanctions against it by defending itself against American and Israeli attacks by weaponizing its leverage in the energy markets -which to date it had never done before. Extraordinary #IranWar#energymarkets #OOPP
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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
The TSA has a 95% failure rate. Not 80%. Ninety-five. In 2015, DHS sent 70 undercover agents through TSA checkpoints with fake bombs and weapons. 67 got through. That's a 95% failure rate. One agent set off the metal detector, got the enhanced pat-down, and still had a fake explosive taped to his back that screeners missed. The TSA's response was to classify the test results so the public couldn't see them. In 24 years, the TSA has not foiled a single terrorist plot or caught a single terrorist. Not one. Its $1 billion behavioral detection program identified exactly one person resembling a terrorist in two decades. This agency costs $11.5 billion a year. It was created in response to 9/11, but 9/11 was not a failure of airport security. What actually made flying safe was reinforced cockpit doors and passengers who will no longer sit passively during a hijacking. Not the liquid ban. Not the shoe removal. 80% of European airports use private screening. Israel hasn't had a hijacking since 1968. 22 US airports already use private contractors and outperform TSA-screened airports. Abolish the TSA. Replace it with the model that 80% of the developed world already uses.
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Guri Singh
Guri Singh@heygurisingh·
🚨BREAKING: This paper should terrify every Physics PhD student. AI agents just ran a full particle physics experiment. Alone. No human in the loop. Researchers tested whether LLM-based AI agents could autonomously execute a complete high energy physics analysis pipeline. Not help with it. Not co-pilot it. Do the whole thing. They built a framework called JFC (Just Furnish Context) that combines autonomous analysis agents with literature-based knowledge retrieval and multi-agent review. Here's what the AI agent did on its own: - Event selection - Background estimation - Uncertainty quantification - Statistical inference - Paper drafting It ran real experiments on open data from ALEPH, DELPHI, and CMS. It performed electroweak, QCD, and Higgs boson measurements. The tool used? Claude Code. The scariest line from the paper: "The experimental HEP community is underestimating the current capabilities of these systems." Researchers argue most proposed agentic workflows are too narrowly scoped. The AI can already do far more than anyone is building for. But here's the nuance people will miss. This isn't about replacing physicists. It's about offloading the repetitive technical burden so researchers can focus on actual physics insight and novel method development. The real takeaway: if AI can autonomously run one of the most complex experimental sciences on earth, the question isn't whether your field is next. It's whether you're already behind. Authors: Eric A. Moreno, Samuel Bright-Thonney, Andrzej Novak, Dolores Garcia, Philip Harris
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William Makis
William Makis@MakisMedicine·
@JillCo I am the most followed Cancer Researcher in the world. I am leaving Canada 🇨🇦 due to persecution by corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and judges. There is no future in Canada for anyone with any discernible talent or skill.
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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
The ECB just admitted that dollar stablecoins are a threat to European monetary sovereignty. Piero Cipollone, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, gave a keynote today in Brussels laying out Europe's tokenized financial market strategy. The message was clear: if Europe doesn't build its own on-chain settlement infrastructure, dollar stablecoins will become the default backbone of European digital finance. His exact words: a world where "a single dominant platform and stablecoin with broad network effects" would have "serious consequences for Europe's monetary sovereignty." The response is already in motion. The ECB is launching "Pontes" in Q3 this year, a system that bridges tokenized asset platforms with central bank money settlement. Their longer-term project "Appia" aims to deliver a full blueprint for a European tokenized financial ecosystem by 2028. €4 billion in tokenized fixed-income instruments have already been issued across Europe since 2021, including sovereign debt from EU member states. This isn't theoretical anymore. Cipollone also took a shot at stablecoins directly, noting that even fiat-backed stablecoins "rarely trade exactly at par, even during calm market conditions." The argument: only central bank money carries zero credit and liquidity risk. This is Europe's answer to America's stablecoin push. While Washington negotiates the CLARITY Act and stablecoin yield deals with Coinbase and the banks, the ECB is building state-controlled rails to make sure tokenized finance runs through central banks, not private issuers.
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