Devolved Election Projections

@mrjamesmack @AdamRamsay @NationCymru Good point, that's a mistake and I do usually get the order right

@DevolvedVotes @AdamRamsay @NationCymru Strange how they're almost in seat order but not quite

Our projection on the latest Beaufort Research poll for @NationCymru 🌼 PC — 33 ➡️ Ref — 31 🌹 Lab — 15 🌳 Con — 4 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 10 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Welsh polling has been erratic, with big variation between YouGov and More in Common. This falls somewhere in between the two, which also means its quite similar to our average.

Reform & Plaid are on course to be represented everywhere, with Labour & the Greens taking seats in over half of all constituencies. The Conservatives & Lib Dems are struggling.

The Greens could challenge in a couple of seats, but at 11% they've plateaued. A big pro-Indy majority is still the most likely outcome.

For the SNP its a mixed bag, these are good numbers for them and would put them clear in Argyll & Bute, but a more concentrated unionist vote behind Labour and Reform hurts them elsewhere. They're still well ahead of the field though.

Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 on the latest poll by the Diffley Partnership: 🎗️ SNP — 63 ➡️ Ref — 20 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 13 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 5 Make your own on devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

@leecardiff I have no interest in overstating support for Labour, Reform, Plaid or anyone. We attempt to turn the polls into a seat projection, if you think there's an issue with the polls then please enter your own numbers. If you think there's a path to 49 then good for you.

@DevolvedVotes Yeah, so you haven't lived in Wales and have zero understanding of how Liebour and the gnats have ruined Wales already.

'The first rule of politics is to be able to count'. There is no anti-Reform conspiracy. Parties need a majority govern, they always have. I think most Welsh voters are more than capabale of understanding something as basic as this.

@leecardiff No. I live in NI, that's written very clearly on the website. We have Reform on 35 seats, one of their highest of any projection site, iteaves them 14 short. I'm sorry that upsets you but they need more votes if they wish to govern. They may get more, but 49 is what matters.

@DevolvedVotes Like I said, you don't live in Wales, do you?

@leecardiff You can send the same lazy meme a million times. It should not surprise you that parties which you so clearly hate are not willing to work with the party you support. I genuinely do not understand what part of this is upsetting you so much.

@leecardiff Addition works the same inside Wales as outside of Wales. If Reform wish to govern they need 49 seats. They can do that by themselves or by finding a coalition partner who gets them over the line.

@leecardiff "It's just counting". Thank you for agreeing with me.

@DevolvedVotes Yes, left wing parties ganging up to stop Reform. It's just counting and Dictator Drakeford will have his way again. Peak incompetence

@leecardiff Here is the picture from the very first tweet on this thread demonstrating exactly what Drakeford said. Can you explain what part of it you have an issue with? Because this literally just simple addition.

@DevolvedVotes Please, please think about what you're saying.

@leecardiff 'The first rule of politics is to be able to count'. Please, please read a tweet before complaining about it.

@DevolvedVotes Well that's a load of absolute nonsense. Dictator Drakeford has already said the lefties will gang up.

@JohnBerylsonWay I refer you to the second tweet about "people who are willfully misleading the public". Stop doing so. I will not reply to any further lies.

@DevolvedVotes voting for any left leaning party mean you are enabling child rape...both Labour and The Greens will not investigate rape gangs for fear of losing votes... they put this above the welfare of our own children.... remember that when you put your X ... our children before anything

We will continue updating this until the close of nominations as some parties are still to fully declare and others are changing their announced slates.

There is considerable variation between the countries, even within same party. Plaid Cymru, Labour and Scottish Reform are very evenly split, the Conservatives and Welsh Reform are heavily male.

Devolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with @ElectHer_UK to project the number of female candidates for the Scottish and Welsh elections. Currently, we expect Scotland to have a much more even gender split than Wales. devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/devolved-…

The alternative, pushed by people who are willfully misleading the public, is that Reform should rule by decree even if most voters and the Senedd opposes them. We have a coalition builder, try it yourself to see how many votes Reform need to govern. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/