Devolved Election Projections

Sadiq Khan would win based on his first preference lead and on transfers from Lib Dem and Green voters, regardless of whether Reform or the Tories got into the top-two run-off (tied on 18%).

Labour are expected to win most seats whilst the Greens are expected to win 5 list seats. If Reform take a constituency (either Havering & Redbridge or Bexley & Bromley) it would be the first to ever be won by a party other than Labour, Lib Dem or Conservative.

Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From @MileEndInst @Savanta_UK devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

Kenny Ross, who lost his five year old daughter Joanna, told LBC: "Thirty years have passed and people forget what we had to go through and I wouldn't want anyone else to go through that. It's people like him that are very ignorant and selfish." lbc.co.uk/article/fury-a…

It's gigantic, well-publicised, deliberate, hate crime. What excuses are loyalist leaders and the English media going to make for it?

Our projection based on the latest RedC/@businessposthq ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Soc Dems — 28 💬 Inds — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Ind Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie

@DaiAberdare That he was a complete hypocrite was relevant info to his religious base. Wells didn't care because it didn't suit him.

@DevolvedVotes Depends what the immorality is considered to be. Unless he knew that Donaldson had raped a child, then simply calling people out for being immoral (however defined personally) may be little more than pious pearl-clutching.

Jim Wells had 30 years to say something when it could have helped people. It's easy to call someone 'immoral' *after* they've been convicted of raping a child.

I know Ian Paisley Jnr is starved of attention since he lost his seat, but announcing you knew Donaldson was a wrongun but did nothing is an interesting choice.

@____theo___ Some of it did, absolutely. But Reform's candidate making a mess on QT, Restore flooding the zone, and the simple fact that a lot of people tune in much later than others, even in a nationalised race. It is not realistic to say that none of that has had any effect.

@DevolvedVotes It happened as soon as Burnham was allowed to run which was before the campaign even began

Makerfield's polls are 'herded'. They're nonsense. So we have absolutely no idea who's winning or by how much. 🧵

@____theo___ I don't buy that all of that had happened by week 1 of the campaign.

@DevolvedVotes You can view the raw data for the polls online, there’s no evidence of herding Numbers have been stable because this by-election has gone national and is really important, with a clear two-horse race, so everyone is voting tactically and has more or less made up their mind

If the end is result is anywhere near 45% Lab - 40% Reform then the pollsters got lucky.

We've had a Reform candidate who had a rough time on QT, Restore pushing hard and Burnham moderating most of his positions. Plus, lots of people have just learned that they live in Makerfield! That *none* of that has had any effect is not realistic.

You either think people should be burned out of their homes because of the colour of their skin or you don't. There is no third position

These 'stats' are as legitimate as their concerns. These people have nothing to offer but lies and increasingly blatant racism.

This is possibly the saddest thing I've seen in a long time..an immigrant nurse talking about fleeing her home..she saved her UNIFORM. So she could still WORK for our communities. I'd fill this country with a thousand of this woman than one of those good for nothing thugs. God help this poor woman.