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The Abraham Accords and the Changing Power Politics of West Asia
The current conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran cannot be fully understood without examining the geopolitical transformation that began with the Abraham Accords. These agreements significantly reshaped alliances in West Asia and contributed to a new strategic rivalry in the region.
Early Arab Recognition of Israel
For decades after the creation of Israel in 1948, most Arab countries refused to formally recognize the Israeli state. Only two Arab countries had established diplomatic relations with Israel before the Abraham Accords.
Egypt became the first Arab country to recognize Israel, signing the Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty on 26 March 1979 following the Camp David Accords.
Later, Jordan normalized relations with Israel through the Israel–Jordan Peace Treaty on 26 October 1994.
For nearly three decades after Jordan’s agreement, the diplomatic landscape in the Arab world remained largely unchanged.
The Abraham Accords: A Strategic Shift (2020)
A major turning point came in 2020 with the signing of the Abraham Accords. Under this framework, several Arab countries normalized relations with Israel. Among the most prominent signatories were the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
The agreements were widely celebrated as a historic diplomatic breakthrough. Supporters argued that increased economic cooperation, technology partnerships, and security coordination between Israel and Gulf countries would bring stability and prosperity to the region.
However, the accords also had deeper geopolitical implications.
Iran viewed the agreements as a US–Israel–Gulf alignment that threatened its regional influence.
Expanding Normalization and Regional Tensions
Following the accords, discussions reportedly began between Israel and other Arab states regarding normalization. Among them, Saudi Arabia was widely believed to be close to joining the normalization process.
However, the trajectory changed dramatically after the October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas. Many analysts believe the escalation disrupted the momentum toward further normalization between Israel and Arab states.
More recently, political changes in Syria have revived discussions around the Abraham Accords. After the fall of Bashar al‑Assad’s government, reports indicate that the new leadership under Ahmed al‑Sharaa may consider engaging with the normalization framework, though the situation remains uncertain.
The Current Conflict and Gulf Vulnerability
In the current confrontation involving Iran and the US–Israel alliance, the Gulf region has become one of the most vulnerable theatres of conflict.
Among all countries affected, the UAE appears to have experienced the most direct pressure. According to the country’s defence ministry, more than 1,700 missiles and drones have been launched toward the UAE since the conflict began, although more than 90 percent were intercepted by air defence systems, fighter jets, and helicopters.
In some cases, projectiles have landed near major civilian locations. Images of fires near international hotels in Dubai or within the grounds of Dubai International Airport quickly captured global attention. While there were no casualties in these incidents, the psychological and economic impact has been significant, particularly in a country that hosts millions of expatriates and tourists.
Economic Interdependence with Iran
Despite geopolitical tensions, the United Arab Emirates remains one of the largest trading partners of Iran, second only to China. Bilateral trade reached about $28 billion in 2024,continuing to grow even amid strict United States sanctions on Iran.
In this sense,The Abraham Accords did not directly cause the conflict but significantly reshaped alliances and intensified the geopolitical rivalry in West Asia.
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