Ben Fève@BenjaminFeve
According to the latest @Frontex figures, only 30 Syrian nationals were detected crossing into the EU irregularly in January 2026, the lowest monthly figure recorded in nearly 30 years (January 2009).
This number may be revised upward as data is refined, but the broader 2025 trend is unambiguous: irregular crossings by Syrians have fallen to their lowest level since 2012 (lower even than during the COVID-19 pandemic).
Time and again, the data confirms what researchers have long argued: the primary driver of irregular migration is conflict, not the economy. Syria remains one of the poorest countries in the world, with catastrophic levels of deprivation. Yet poverty alone rarely compels people to risk dangerous, illegal crossings. When the immediate threat of violence and arbitrary detention recedes, so does the impulse to flee.
The December 2024 transition has not made Syria prosperous... just yet. But it may have made it survivable, which is, in itself, enough for many to stay.