Vikas Patel
20.4K posts
Vikas Patel
@_vikasbp
@employamerica RTs/likes ≠ endorsement, all views here are mine, etc
NYC 加入时间 Şubat 2010
2.5K 关注590 粉丝
Vikas Patel 已转推
Vikas Patel 已转推
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut
Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike
How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
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Vikas Patel 已转推
Informative from the @employamerica team
Skanda Amarnath@IrvingSwisher
Latest from @_vikasbp & me: So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation? Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising inflation employamerica.org/inflation-anal…
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Vikas Patel 已转推
New from @PrestonMui: Prices of essentials like healthcare and energy are starting to weigh on labor income and consumer spending. These constraints will lead to softer real GDP growth and productivity growth, spoiling Warsh's case for imminent rate cuts
employamerica.org/productivity-a…
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Vikas Patel 已转推
Caterpillar posts first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations as surging electricity demand from AI data centers boosted sales of its power-generation equipment bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Vikas Patel 已转推
It wasn’t a sell off, just the front-end mourning an amazing guy
😭🫡📈
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Vikas Patel 已转推
Vikas Patel 已转推
The main reason are that the facts have changed. Folks may finally wake up to:
1) Headline & Core PCE >1% above target & rising.
2) Rates are just 0.5%-.75% above neutral
3) Labor market data has at least stabilized (maybe picking up)
4) Financial mkts buoyant
There are good reasons to not hike, but that is a better question to debate than "why not cut?"
Steve Matthews@SteveMatthews12
The Fed presidents’ dissents seem like a very strong message to Warsh that you are not getting interest rate cuts anytime soon. They could have easily gone along with the FOMC majority and given speeches to elaborate on their views. The dissents are a message.
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Vikas Patel 已转推
The Fed presidents’ dissents seem like a very strong message to Warsh that you are not getting interest rate cuts anytime soon. They could have easily gone along with the FOMC majority and given speeches to elaborate on their views. The dissents are a message.
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Vikas Patel 已转推
Internal opposition against cuts is clearly building as Warsh prepares to take over as chair. At his confirmation hearing, he said he wanted "messier" meetings, which it looks like he will get.
Colby Smith@colbyLsmith
Fed votes 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most divisive decision since 1992. Miran wanted a 25bp cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but wanted the Fed to remove the easing bias in the statement. The line in question says, "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." nytimes.com/live/2026/04/2…
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Vikas Patel 已转推
The power of the FOMC Chair is the power of persuasion. It is clear that Warsh has his work cut out for him convincing the committee to adopt his policy views. Good luck trying to convince Lorie Logan about your views on trimmed-mean Kevin!
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Vikas Patel 已转推
Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan are one step ahead of where the rest of the Committee (ex-Warsh/Miran) are headed.
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992.
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Vikas Patel 已转推
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause.
Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut.
The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992.
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Vikas Patel 已转推
Vikas Patel 已转推
Latest from @_vikasbp & me:
So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation?
Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge
If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising inflation
employamerica.org/inflation-anal…
English
Vikas Patel 已转推
Tillis tells my colleague @lindsaywise that he understands why Powell might want to stay on the Fed board until the last loose ends of the DOJ probe are tied off
"I see a rational basis for sticking around until then." wsj.com/livecoverage/s…
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Vikas Patel 已转推
Vikas Patel 已转推
@mtkonczal @fcastofthemonth @NickTimiraos @_vikasbp And if we focus on the Market-Based Nonhousing subset of source components (to deal with methodological issues and lags)...
Womp womp
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Vikas Patel 已转推
@mtkonczal @fcastofthemonth @NickTimiraos If you use the Cleveland Fed symmetric 16% trimmed mean approach for PCE source components:
(h/t @_vikasbp )
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