@nickgiva1 @EconBerger The funny thing is that the birds are not even that related
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Preston Mui
7.2K posts
Preston Mui
@PrestonMui
Economist @employamerica / @KNiewiadoma stan I am mostly at bluesky these days.
Seattle, WA Katılım Nisan 2013
935 Takip Edilen2.8K Takipçiler
@EconBerger I think the European Robin was named that a few thousand years before the American one. Why don't you give yours a better name?
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Side note, I am not into Europe-America-who’s-better debates, but the European Robin is a pathetic little bird unworthy of the name
Guy Berger@EconBerger
The chonkiest robin I have seen in my life
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Preston Mui retweetledi
almost poetic, that with all the focus on trimmed mean inflation, Dallas and Cleveland Fed Presidents are hawkish lol
Rishi Mishra@aRishisays
this is a first! dissent on language (easing bias) by three members! sets the stage for Warsh perfectly hahah
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@mtkonczal Yes, it would be such a joy to see Jay unleashed as a poaster on here
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@EconBerger Not ACA subsidies, a combination of increasing hospital/physician prices, tariffs, GLP-1 usage.
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2/ We did see a very large increase in benefit costs - is this the increase in premiums as ACA subsidies expired? [Does that even make sense in this context...]
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Employment cost index, our best metric of wage growth:
1/ In Q1, private sector wage growth fell to its lowest rate since 2020. Comparable to pre-pandemic.
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Preston Mui retweetledi
Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan are one step ahead of where the rest of the Committee (ex-Warsh/Miran) are headed.
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992.
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Preston Mui retweetledi
Latest from @_vikasbp & me:
So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation?
Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge
If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising inflation
employamerica.org/inflation-anal…
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Preston Mui retweetledi
Tillis tells my colleague @lindsaywise that he understands why Powell might want to stay on the Fed board until the last loose ends of the DOJ probe are tied off
"I see a rational basis for sticking around until then." wsj.com/livecoverage/s…
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Preston Mui retweetledi
@mtkonczal @fcastofthemonth @NickTimiraos @_vikasbp And if we focus on the Market-Based Nonhousing subset of source components (to deal with methodological issues and lags)...
Womp womp
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Preston Mui retweetledi
New BTOS AI Supplement released by Census today. See: census.gov/library/workin…
AI use for any business function varies dramatically across sectors and firm size. Employment-weighted use in AI intensive sectors in 60-70% range compared to 32% economy-wide.
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Preston Mui retweetledi
From @IrvingSwisher at @employamerica on the problematic monetary and partisan views of Kevin Warsh ahead of his nomination hearing with Senate Banking today.
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Todd must be using the frontier model, because I still haven’t been able to open the Strait of Hormuz using the free version of ChatGPT
(maybe I’m using the wrong prompt)
Todd Jones 🦊@toddrjones
I just had Claude Code go backpacking in Yosemite for me. I hear the views were absolutely breathtaking! It only cost $8.47 in API calls. Here's the step-by-step process:
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@EconBerger @OneOpenSea wasn't there some paper that showed that it was (partially?) due to 'teen mom'?
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@OneOpenSea Maybe it wasn’t policy but just changing economic incentives or social norms. Either way a great thing
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I can’t believe I feel the need to say this but… the decline in teen pregnancy/parenthood is an unalloyed good thing, a giant policy victory
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Preston Mui retweetledi
Preston Mui retweetledi
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target).
Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides)
No downside changes to u3 or output gap.
Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year. Dovish. But this can't keep going imo
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@johnarnold I think this is really underselling the impact of increasing industrial rates on consumer prices. Goods are an input into services, and the citation on cost passthrough was a post from July '25 about tariff passthru to prices *at the time*, not a general rule for all costs
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"How to Lower Electricity Bills to $100 a Month"
The biggest impact is equalizing industrial and residential rates which currently reflect cost to serve but don't have to. I don't endorse all of these ideas but it's a serious proposal worth considering.
…derbiltpolicyaccelerator.substack.com/p/a-simple-way…
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No need to assume any oil at all, Ernie
Use a model of the economy in which oil isn’t one of the factors of production
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi
Just do what we economists do and assume all the oil you need.
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@mattyglesias @jdcmedlock Funny enough, the majority of federal layoffs are men (54%).
Under Trump women are 86% of private sector jobs. But because DOGE et al fired more men and state/local is still hiring, women are 133% of total jobs, private + public.
5'3 and an attitude! 5'3 and an attitude!
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