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Bobby Tierney
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Bobby Tierney
@chcbearsfan
Creator of the CEBE framework for BTCTC analysis | https://t.co/kQGryfDhYQ | Bitcoiner | Chicago Bears | Indiana Pacers
Indiana 加入时间 Mart 2009
800 关注1.2K 粉丝
@billheckler1 No not really. Fully diluted only addresses those instruments that will convert to shares. So the billions headed to STRC are not in that equation but the Bitcoin it buys will be
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@chcbearsfan So CEBE is essentially "Fully Diluted" Bitcoin Per Share?
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Strive added 496 BTC over five weeks. Stack grew 3.8%. Shares grew 9.7%
Period was dilutive. BPS says -5.4%. CEBE says -2.7%. That 752 sat gap is drag compression BPS can't see
mNAV was 0.85-0.95x for most of the issuance period. It's 1.12x now
cebetracker.io
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Drag is the percentage of the BTC stack that's spoken for by those senior claims. When drag compresses the common equity's share of the stack improves
Over this period, drag compressed from 34.1% to 32.3% due to two drivers
1. BTC stack grew from 13,132 to 13,628. Bigger denominator means claims are a smaller percentage of total holdings. That's 1.19 pts of the 1.9
2. The common ATM raised ~$6.9M more than was deployed into BTC and STRC. That excess cash stayed on the balance sheet and reduced net senior claims. That's 0.7 pts
BPS can't see either of these. It just divides total BTC by total shares, so it reports -5.4%
CEBE sees both and reports -2.7%
The 752 sat difference (1,122 BPS drop - 370 CEBE drop) is the value of that drag compression to common shareholders
cebetracker.io/cebe
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@chcbearsfan "BPS says -5.4%. CEBE says -2.7%. That 752 sat gap is drag compression BPS can't see."
Interesting. In English:
- Strive lost 5.4% Bitcoin per share (using MSTR methodology).
- Strive lost 2.7% BPS using CEBE methodology.
Explain "drag compression," 752 sat calculation?
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Bobby Tierney 已转推
Turns out he’s not an AI-generated cowboy, spaceman, pirate, or a bunch of other things. @saylor joined @HBerkoe at Presidio Bitcoin to talk about bitcoin, AI, advice for builders, and MIT pranks.
Watch here: youtu.be/PIVWyjihxnA?si…
YouTube
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STRC has a real cost to common equity. Whether that cost is worth it depends entirely on where BTC goes
At $140K BTC, 42% STRC is net negative for common. At $225K it's near optimal. At $500K you want more of it
Not bull or bear, just math
x.com/chcbearsfan/st…
Protos@Protos
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@Eladsha12 It completes the equation be adding the cost of the prefs back into equation. Current BPS based KPIs omit the prefs in the numerator
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@chcbearsfan Can explain what CEBE means and what your website measures?
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Thorough report. The volatility refinery framing is a clear description of what Strategy is building
Every STRC dollar issued is a senior claim above common. The refinery produces yield for preferred holders and drag for common holders
You can see that in the stress testing section as BTC coverage compresses. In that scenario common is squeezed
Both outputs from the refinery are real and both should be measured
cebetracker.io/framework
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@bitcoindudebro @TM8931593363 @Z06Z07 Interesting thought. I look at this as more descriptive than predictive. I'll have to think about this one
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@chcbearsfan @TM8931593363 @Z06Z07 I think a good next step for your analysis is to help investors understand the implications and how it should impact their investment decisions
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@TheDumbGreek @Z06Z07 I have the ones filed on the tracker site. It's not real time but best you can do that I am aware
cebetracker.io/credit
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@WatchCloselyYT @Navi75554483 @BTCBULLRIDER You're right the 26th series is MSW so above 88k BTC those become dilutive. Thats 276M of this raise. Thanks for the challenge on that
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@chcbearsfan @Navi75554483 @BTCBULLRIDER If BTC goes up a lot and after that the warrants get excercised the equity sale at 410 JPY will be at a mNAV below 1. Why do you think this will be accretive?
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About the debate on Metaplanet's $772M raise. Both sides are right
The IR discipline is real. Six instruments evaluated, one selected, 13 page independent legal review. No other BTCTC has published this and @BTCBULLRIDER nailed that
The warrant pricing is also real. 2-year calls sold at 98% discount to Black-Scholes. The arb funds got a gift and @NitherDither nailed that
The piece that connects them is the net impact to common equity
Zero senior claims added and zero dividend obligations kept the drag at 16.3%. The capital structure is still one of the cleanest in the BTCTC space
The cost isn't drag. It's dilution at terms that heavily favored the funds. $140M in option value transferred out is real. The benefit is it bought 10K BTC during a bear market when no one else was offering funds
The deal is bad on pricing but it's rational on strategy. The question is whether 10K BTC at $72K outperforms $140M in option value given away
If BTC hits $150K, it does so easily
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I am a MSTR bull. I think CEBE shows that responsible capital allocation is important. That there is a cost to the prefs that BPS ignores. There are thresholds that should be concerning if are crossed and BTC price action doesn't cooperate
By no means is this an implodes prediction
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@chcbearsfan @bitcoindudebro Your CEBE analysis is fantastic, thank you so much for your work. Please let us know when you do the space with Mike ( @Z06Z07 )
Question: why so you think MSTR is still a good investment long term? your analysis is showing unless they stop with preffs..MSTR implodes?!
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@bitcoindudebro Yeah. I own them and I think they are going to be a great long term investment
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@chcbearsfan It's a bit concerning. Do you still have MSTR rated as a buy?
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Best mechanical BPS model I've seen published. @Z06Z07 built it clean
I used his inputs and changed nothing. Added in the $8B preferred stack his model doesn't track
BPS says STRC is a 44% improvement. CEBE says 5.3%
x.com/chcbearsfan/st…
Grain of Salt@Z06Z07
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Yes
If CEBE mNAV is above 1, you're selling shares for more than what common equity actually owns per share after senior claims. That's accretive to common equity even if BPS says it's dilutive
This is the exact scenario where the two metrics give opposite signals on the same decision
x.com/chcbearsfan/st…
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@chcbearsfan @BTCBULLRIDER If market cap mNAV is less than 1, but CEBE mNAV is more than 1, is issuance of more shares accretive?
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@Z06Z07 Appreciate that. Your data made this possible. Would love to do a space and walk through the overlay together. The models aren't competing, they're measuring different things. DM me and we'll set it up 🤝
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@chcbearsfan Thanks for shout out and analysis. I would be happy to do a space. While both of our math is correct, how the market prices $MSTR is dependent on price of Bitcoin. When reflexivity kicks in is the big mystery. Sooner rather than later. 👍
Grain of Salt@Z06Z07
Bitcoin halvings are officially obsolete. @strategy by itself is now absorbing the complete mined supply of Bitcoin since Q4 2024. This is one entity and does not include $IBIT or other Spot ₿ ETFs or Treasury companies. Oh, @saylor ability to buy Bitcoin goes up as the price of ₿ goes up. $MSTR $STRC
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@bitcoindudebro From the model's starting price ($87K Q4 2025) to $225K by Q4 2027, that's roughly 60% annual CAGR. From the Q1 2026 at $70K it's closer to 95% annualized.
That's part of the point. Even at that growth rate, drag doesn't compress back to starting levels
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@chcbearsfan > Strategy’s current 42% capital mix is a $225K BTC bet whether they know it or not.
What btc cagr does that represent?
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BPS says STRC is a 44% improvement to your Bitcoin per share
After you subtract the preferred stack, it's 5.3%
I took the best mechanical BPS model published, changed nothing, added one variable. Here's what the preferred stack costs common equity holders
x.com/chcbearsfan/st…
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@JesseKobernick This is the question that started the whole thing in January. You asked then and I built the answer. The market prices the claims BPS can't see.
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Price actions suggests $MSTR common price is only partially impacted by $STRC sales until BTC price moves (above basis?). Which makes some sense given the div liability (or notional value of STRC).
Whether it's 'accretive' depends how you define it. Does "BPS" go up? Yes. Does BPS fully capture the pref's impact on common? No. If it did, then theoretically, if BTC were completely flat for a year but BPS rose 80% in that year--which is not totally unrealistic for @Strategy--then $MSTR common should go up a fair amount. 80%? Would it? I wouldn't bet on it.
David Parker@DParkerSC
@Z06Z07 question from a space earlier. Is bitcoin purchased with strc accretive ? I think many think it’s dilutive and although you say it doesn’t affect the adso I think some still think it’s dilutive. And I do think it’s important to address the risk of massive Wall Street shorting to get mnav to .5 even if bitcoin goes up. Can wall st really do this ? If so how much capital would that take especially if bitcoin goes up as expected And the question of whether strategy can keep buying bitcoin is size as bitcoin price has two parts. You answer the first part that isn’t intuitive. As bitcoin goes up strategy can generate more fiat to continue buying in size. But as bitcoin supply tightens it’s harder to keep getting btc yield beyond a scertain size. We don’t know what that is but strategy will hit it. So what’s the story for generating growth beyond btc acquisition and balance sheet expansion. At some point strategy needs to pain a long term vision about that. Thoughts ?
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