Rob
5.2K posts

Rob
@offlinerob
I post a daily #BTC report that helps 🫵 identify macro tops and bottoms. *My posts are NOT financial advice*
加入时间 Nisan 2015
99 关注537 粉丝

@dotkrueger @BitcoinRachy So you think you need at least $5 million to retire by 2033 assuming Bitcoin is at $500,000?
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@NewsAsset Or what if it goes through and price continues downward? People should prepare for that!
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@JM_speakss I buy when risk is 0.3 or less. 🤷♂️ Follow me if you don’t know what that means lol
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@hmmxavier Do the market cap calculations and you’ll clearly see why this will likely never happen. Stop being dumb.
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4. Summary
The question on everyone's mind is: Did #BTC bottom already, and if not, when will it and at what price?
While it is possible that $60k in early February was the bottom, it's not my base case. I'm targeting a lower low sometime later this year.
Here's why:
1. Bear market bottoms typically happen ~12 months after the prior high.
2. Price typically bottoms below the 200W SMA (currently $59k).
3. Price typically bottoms around the balanced and realized prices (currently $39k & $54k).
4. Price typically bottoms in the 0 - 0.2 risk bands (currently $35k - $48k).
5. Factoring in diminished returns, a 65% - 70% decline is a reasonable expectation, which would be $38k - $44k.
One reasonable argument for the bottom being in already is the fact that not a single top indicator flashed when Bitcoin topped back in October 2025. It is possible that we see a similarly muted bottom, which may have happened already.
Assuming $60k was NOT the bottom though, everything is pointing towards a bottom somewhere between $38k - $50k later this year.
See you next time 🙂
Chart credit: @intocryptoverse
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@DrProfitCrypto Hey, Doctor, the news you’ve brought back is really bad
If the target is below 50,000, what are the driving factors
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