Tim Hack

$CDE weekly 👀 This is not the kind of chart $SILVER bulls want to see: vertical run stalling inside a rising wedge, last candle breaking down and weekly MACD starting to roll over. Set the cognitive bias aside for a sec... I’m simply showing you the structure, not rooting for an outcome. Don’t shoot the messenger, manage the risk...

I can make a forecast on how the US-Iran conflict will move forward. - By April, Iran will agree to talk with the US. Trump will convene a board of peace and claim he brought "peace to Iran" by getting rid of their nukes, missile program, and radicals. - Many from the same leadership now that is calling for US/Israel to be wiped out will be talking peace with the US. Because they are all in this show together. That's why they haven't been wiped out by the US/Israel. - Israel will still continue to keep hitting Iran, like it does Lebanon under full patronage of its govt, to take out radical elements, any capabilities as they surface etc. New Iran govt will keep shouting but won't blame the US. - ME countries will become safe again. Oil will start flowing. And by the end of year, oil price will fall drastically as US controls or has a say in most of world's oil, including Iran's. UAE will come out fine due to diversification of its economy. Saudi will have trouble. - Economies and refining countries like India will benefit the most due to this glut of cheap oil by next year. China will face difficulties due to energy as Russia too will be selling to Europe limiting its oil access. Stock markets should likely soar if China/Pak do not cause India trouble. In fact they will start rising by this May itself as major conflict ends. - But Pak/China will hate to see India gaining because of all this. Hence we may see attacks and conflict by next summer. If India decides to go for OpSindoor 2.0, it will be supported by Israel and backed by the US to keep China in check. - If Pak/China do not create trouble for India, well and good. Next year will be even more amazing for India.

⚠️Investors are hedging against an S&P 500 CRASH at a RECORD rate: Estimated S&P 500 put delta positioning is down to -$70 billion, the most negative since at least the FINANCIAL CRISIS. This means investors are currently holding the largest dollar amount of S&P 500 put options in HISTORY. This even exceeds the 2020 CRASH, the 2022 bear market, and the April 2025 selloff. Wall Street has rarely been this fearful of a market drop.

⚠️Investors are hedging against an S&P 500 CRASH at a RECORD rate: Estimated S&P 500 put delta positioning is down to -$70 billion, the most negative since at least the FINANCIAL CRISIS. This means investors are currently holding the largest dollar amount of S&P 500 put options in HISTORY. This even exceeds the 2020 CRASH, the 2022 bear market, and the April 2025 selloff. Wall Street has rarely been this fearful of a market drop.