@MarioNawfal Do not blame everything on a U.S.-Iran war.
Even without this war, Vance still likely would not win in 2028.
This is not just about one event —
it is about his own lack of political pull
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莱薾校长
732 posts
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Iran war is already shaping 2028
Vance hasn't decided whether to run in 2028, telling close associates his fourth child coming this summer and family life take priority.
But the people around him are already gaming out how this war defines the next Republican primary.
If the conflict drags on for months, whoever seeks the GOP nomination will have to answer for it.
Vance built his political identity on opposing forever wars.
Now he's the vice president of an administration running one.
Every week Operation Epic Fury continues, the distance between his brand and his record grows wider.
Source: WaPo
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷🇾🇪 Senior Houthi official warns attacks are "coming soon" and tells Arab states not to intercept missiles from Iran and its allies. The Houthis just announced themselves as the next front in this war. As if nine countries weren't enough, Iran's Yemeni proxy is about to make it ten... Source: AJA
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@MarioNawfal They’re begging for $200 billion more,
while blowing through $93.4 billion in a single month on things like ice cream machines, sushi tables, steak, and lobster.
That doesn’t look like a “defense emergency.”
It looks like war as the excuse and the budget as the feast.
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Pentagon just asked for $200 BILLION more in defense spending.
For insane comparison: Ukraine itself has spent roughly $180–200 BILLION on its own war effort over 4 full years (defense budgets skyrocketed from ~$7B pre-war to $65B+ annually in 2023–2025)
So one extra US defense year ≈ 4 years of Ukraine funding its own survival against Russia.
That’s not just wild, it’s fucking astronomical.
Sources: WSJ / SIPRI / Ukrainian budget reports
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇫🇷 Macron flatly refuses to help force open the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is carrying this war almost entirely alone, and the allies who depend most on that oil are the ones sitting it out.
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@MarioNawfal Let’s be honest: France wants the result, but not the cost.
If the strait reopens and oil prices calm down, everyone benefits.
But when it’s time to send forces, take risks, and carry the blame, they disappear.
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🚨🇫🇷 Macron flatly refuses to help force open the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. is carrying this war almost entirely alone, and the allies who depend most on that oil are the ones sitting it out.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 Missile debris landed in northern Israel after an Iranian strike, showing how even interceptions can still cause damage on the ground.
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To put it bluntly, international law is like a neighborhood pact with no police to enforce it. When everyone agrees, it carries weight; when they fall out, it becomes nothing more than a weapon in a shouting match.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇪🇸 Spain's PM calls the Iran war "illegal" with "no justification": "Europe stands for multilateralism and international law. This war is causing massive damage."
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@MarioNawfal International law is like a neighborhood agreement without a police force. When everyone agrees, it's powerful; when they don't, it becomes a rhetorical battlefield.
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🇪🇸 Spain's PM calls the Iran war "illegal" with "no justification":
"Europe stands for multilateralism and international law.
This war is causing massive damage."
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 Missile debris landed in northern Israel after an Iranian strike, showing how even interceptions can still cause damage on the ground.
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@FoxNews That is a classic bit of diplomatic charm! It’s always fascinating to see how high-level leaders use personal touches to break the ice. This specific compliment—noting Barron Trump’s height and good looks while crediting both parents—is a masterclass in "reading the room."
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JAPANESE PM SANAE TAKAICHI draws laughs with birthday wish for Barron Trump:
"Tomorrow is the birthday of your son, Mr. Barron Trump, and I know he has grown up so much into a very tall, good-looking gentleman."
"And when I see you, Donald, it is very clear where he got it — Of course, from his parents. There's no doubt about it."
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Israel plays bad cop, Trump plays good cop.
One pushes the crisis upward, the other steps in to hit the brakes.
That is not a split — it is a division of labor:
Israel applies the pressure, Trump manages the fallout, reassures allies, and calms markets
zerohedge@zerohedge
NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS; PRESIDENT TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS
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@zerohedge Israel plays bad cop, Trump plays good cop.
One pushes the crisis upward, the other steps in to hit the brakes.
That is not a split — it is a division of labor:
Israel applies the pressure, Trump manages the fallout, reassures allies, and calms markets
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@SawyerMerritt @SpaceX SpaceX will ultimately deliver millions of tons to the Moon to build a self-growing city there and same for Mars
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NEWS: NASA is planning a bigger @SpaceX Moon mission role using Starship, in a massive blow to Boeing.
With the new proposal, Boeing's SLS would no longer be used to boost Orion close to the moon. Instead, Starship and Orion would dock in Earth orbit, giving Starship the pivotal role of propelling the capsule to the moon’s orbit, before taking astronauts down to the surface. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Here we go again with “international law.”
International law is not useless — it only works when powerful states choose to enforce it.
This statement looks less like action and more like groundwork for action.
If they’re serious, stop issuing statements and send ships to Hormuz.
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You talk like seven dragons, but when it’s time to act, you move like seven worms.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷 7 nations slammed Iran in a joint statement: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan & UK condemn attacks on ships, energy sites & the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. They’re calling it a violation of international law and saying they’re ready to step in to keep the strait open and to draw a red line on global oil lifelines. What does this mean? So far, just PR. I'll believe it when it happens. Source: Al Jazeera
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@MarioNawfal Here we go again with “international law.”
International law is not useless — it only works when powerful states choose to enforce it.
This statement looks less like action and more like groundwork for action.
If they’re serious, stop issuing statements and send ships to Hormuz.
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🇮🇷 7 nations slammed Iran in a joint statement:
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan & UK condemn attacks on ships, energy sites & the Strait of Hormuz shutdown.
They’re calling it a violation of international law and saying they’re ready to step in to keep the strait open and to draw a red line on global oil lifelines.
What does this mean? So far, just PR. I'll believe it when it happens.
Source: Al Jazeera
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 65% of Americans think Trump will order a ground war in Iran. Only 7% actually want it. 77% of Republicans support the airstrikes, just 6% of Democrats do. 55% oppose sending any ground troops at all. Meanwhile, plans for troops near Iran’s coast and Kharg Island (90% of its oil exports) are already being discussed. Source: Reuters
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First half: medium-high credibility. Iran really is using Hormuz to create global pressure.
Wording: heavily politicized. “Blackmailing the world” is framing, not neutral description.
Second half: low-to-medium credibility. The claim that Israel is helping reopen the strait is not yet strongly supported by public evidence.
Overall nature of the statement: not a total lie, but a real situation packaged into a narrative that favors Netanyahu’s political and strategic position.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇱🇮🇷 Netanyahu: "Iran is trying to blackmail the world by closing the Strait of Hormuz; it won't work." He also said Israel is pitching in its own way to help the U.S. get it back open. x.com/clashreport/st…
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First half: medium-high credibility. Iran really is using Hormuz to create global pressure.
Wording: heavily politicized. “Blackmailing the world” is framing, not neutral description.
Second half: low-to-medium credibility. The claim that Israel is helping reopen the strait is not yet strongly supported by public evidence.
Overall nature of the statement: not a total lie, but a real situation packaged into a narrative that favors Netanyahu’s political and strategic position.
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🇮🇱🇮🇷 Netanyahu:
"Iran is trying to blackmail the world by closing the Strait of Hormuz; it won't work."
He also said Israel is pitching in its own way to help the U.S. get it back open.
x.com/clashreport/st…
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷 Iran executed a 19-year-old wrestling champion by public hanging. The charge: waging war against God. The evidence: a confession extracted under torture. The Islamic Republic has spent 45 years calling this justice.
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@KobeissiLetter China is not only trying to avoid an oil shock. It is using the shock to rearrange its economic security and geopolitical position.
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China is sitting on massive oil reserves:
Chinese crude oil imports surged +15.8% YoY in February, the biggest monthly jump since August 2023.
Growth rates have QUADRUPLED since the end of 2025.
After over a year of stockpiling, China has built up an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of reserves.
This includes ~851 million barrels of commercial inventory, the supply that would likely be used first.
Meanwhile, refiners could start drawing as much as 1 million barrels per day over the next 4 to 6 weeks.
In the first week of the Iran War, Beijing already ordered its biggest refiners to restrict fuel exports and prioritize gasoline and diesel production over chemicals as a precautionary move.
China is playing the long game amid the Iran War.
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@MarioNawfal You cannot stay quiet when Israel hits energy infrastructure first,
then suddenly scream “de-escalation” when Iran hits back.
That is not diplomacy — it is selective blindness.
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🇪🇺🇮🇷 EU's VP Kaja Kallas on Iran war:
"Iran's attacks on Qatar’s energy infrastructure are deepening the chaos.
The war in the Middle East needs an exit, not an escalation."
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. may send Marines to seize key Hormuz islands The Pentagon is preparing options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including deploying Marines and potentially seizing Iranian-controlled islands. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is already en route and expected within days. The strait carries about 20% of global oil, and ongoing attacks have disrupted shipping. Why it matters: any move here risks a direct clash while the world’s most critical oil route hangs in the balance. Source: Wall Street Journal
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@DrEliDavid If oil prices continue to climb significantly from current levels (e.g., breaching $120 or approaching the historical highs of $140-$150 per barrel), the global economy will face a devastating chain reaction.
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Trump masterfully made Strait of Hormuz "somebody else's problem". US oil is at $100, while Asia oil (dependent on Hormuz) is at $150.
Want Hormuz opened? Send ships to help. Otherwise, f*ck off and suffer.
zerohedge@zerohedge
The oil market has fragmented: Oil is now trading for $150/bbl in Asia (except the occasional sanctioned Iranian tanker) where demand destruction has started. China and India most pressured. Meanwhile it is still $100 in the US
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@KobeissiLetter If oil prices continue to climb significantly from current levels (e.g., breaching $120 or approaching the historical highs of $140-$150 per barrel), the global economy will face a devastating chain reaction.
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BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge to $119/barrel after Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure are followed by Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy infrastructure.
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JUST IN: 🇫🇷🇮🇷 French President Macron says war in Iran must be stopped and negotiations must resume due to impacts on global energy markets.
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