
Everyone is watching to see if Mohammed bin Salman signs a deal with Israel, but that is the wrong thing to watch.
For years MBS sold the world a modernizing Saudi Arabia, women driving, cities rising out of the desert, Western money pouring in. That MBS wants the deal. It fits the brochure perfectly.
But MBS built that modern Saudi Arabia as a one man show. No elections, no real opposition, no safety valve when people get angry. So the whole thing rests on one trade. He hands his people prosperity and pride, and in return they let him hold every lever. That is the bargain MBS made. Signing with Israel right after a war, with those people almost entirely against it, spends the pride he was selling them.
So forget yes or no. Watch which MBS shows up to answer: The one who wants to open Saudi Arabia to the world, or the one who knows his own people will turn on him if he goes too far.
Trump put the ball in MBS’s court on purpose. Now everyone gets to see who is holding it.

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