
Why are gold and oil diverging right now?
Since the Iran conflict began on February 28, Brent crude has surged +40.7% to $108/bbl.
Gold, the asset you're supposed to own during a war, has crashed -22.3% from its all-time high of $5,589 to below $4,383.
That's a combined -$3.5 TRILLION wipeout across gold and silver in 3 weeks.
A stronger US dollar, surging 10Y yields at 4.40% (+45 bps in 3 weeks), and forced liquidations by leveraged paper traders created the largest safe-haven correlation breakdown in decades.
Goldman now sees headline PCE peaking at 4.5% this spring. They've pushed their first rate cut to September and raised recession odds to 25%.
The Iran war isn't just an energy shock. It's a full-spectrum macro repricing.

English







