The January 24-25 system now looks like it will be pushed too far south due to the Arctic air mass settling over our region for the next few days. That cold, dense air is acting like a barrier and suppressing the storm track. As a result, instead of affecting us, it is now expected to become a fairly significant snowstorm for parts of the southern U.S. I’ll still be monitoring and forecasting it, even though it won’t directly impact our area. Looking ahead, the next period worth watching is around January 29th, which I mentioned in yesterday’s post. So far, the AIFS model has been extremely consistent in showing a strong storm for the East Coast during that timeframe. That signal is now beginning to show up in both the AIFS ENS and the EPS, which adds confidence that something meaningful could develop. There is also some supportive stratospheric patterning that indicates the potential for a stronger storm around that time. A few things stand out to me. First is how unusually consistent the model signal has been, even at a very long range of around 280 hours out. At the moment, it appears the storm would mainly affect the U.S. East Coast and miss us, but at this distance the forecast can still change a lot. The key takeaway right now is not the exact track, but the fact that there is a persistent signal for a major storm, which could still trend either closer to us or farther away. Second, one of the recent AIFS model runs showed a setup that looked almost identical to the pattern that produced the 1993 ‘Superstorm.’ I’ll post comparison images in the comments. This doesn’t mean we are going to get a storm like 1993, but it does suggest that the overall atmospheric setup is favorable for a potentially strong winter storm if everything were to align. #onwx #onstorm #Toronto

@natlforecast How confident or reliable is this?

@THEINTERNET14 There is not much confidence this far out, just something to monitor.