@dannyoneil @aviel ooph, we're all a little skittish there right now Danny!
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Brian Hall
9.5K posts
Brian Hall
@IsForAt
#1 WA state stan. x-VP Google, AWS, Microsoft + startup CEO. Seattle native, helpless M's (and WA) fan. Massie kinda R, MGP kinda D. need opptys for our kids.
Seattle, WA انضم Şubat 2012
2.8K يتبع9.8K المتابعون
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Brian Hall أُعيد تغريده
Brian Hall أُعيد تغريده
People don’t want to be punished for success.
It is not wrong to want to preserve your wealth.
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@trengriffin @RampCapitalLLC I have a great picture of my youngest with a buzz bomb attached to his scalp during a great pink run... He cast hard, just not well.
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@IsForAt @RampCapitalLLC I was jigging for squid once on a dock and someone casting their line hooked my head with a jig and the cut started bleeding a lot (as head cut do). A woman rushed over and pressed a towel against the wound. “Are you comfortable?” she asked. My response: "Meh. I make a living.”
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@trengriffin @RampCapitalLLC Tren, you are going to have to make a kitty off money to do that ... :-)
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@RampCapitalLLC I will move to a small coastal fishing town where I would fish a lot, take many afternoon naps and stroll through the town in the evenings, where I could play cards and tell jokes with my friends.
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Brian Hall أُعيد تغريده
Bellevue is eating Seattle's lunch. They have thriving retail, higher home prices, and mostly full offices. All this means their per-capita tax revenue is dramatically higher than Seattle.
Seattle's crusade for progressive revenue has backfired.
Downtown Seattle@downtownseattle
DSA President & CEO Jon Scholes: “We don’t need more business taxes in Seattle, we need more businesses in Seattle paying taxes.”
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Brian Hall أُعيد تغريده
a parable for washington state govt:
when a startup realizes it doesn’t have enough money to continue to spend as it has, it has to layoff a meaningful percentage of its staff, cut marketing spend, travel, move to cheaper offices etc.
what i’ve seen time and again is, the startup realizes there was a ton of bloat/waste - and yes sometimes fraud - before the cuts.
and then an interesting thing happens: it learns to do more with less.
much of the time, the startup that cuts deep sees growth on the other side due to forced focus and efficiency.
when you can’t throw money at problems, you have to tilt your head at a different angle and try new things/get creative - to make hard decisions you’re known needed to be made but money let you postpone indefinitely.
idk why, this just seems relevant today somehow 😅
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@kirbywinfield @kendallbaker @DavidJacobsLive Absolure shit show. 60 HRs and not an AB in the last two games.
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@kendallbaker @DavidJacobsLive And no Raleigh behind the dish cost us a run
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Gunnar Henderson: Leads Team USA in batting average (.429), slugging (.929) and OPS (1.358)
Mark DeRosa: We should bench that guy
USA Baseball@USABaseball
Tonight's starting lineup in the World Baseball Classic Championship Game against Venezuela
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sorry, this isn't worth a debate here. Google makes money because it converts business. there is all sorts of math between clicks, leads, conversions, ... lots of money. if rather than just giving some links, you can synthesize and say "here's what you should do or buy" you are in an even better position. There's LOTS of work to do (just as Facebook had to learn mobile, ... ) but I am not concerned that AI responses won't be able to monetize and actually think they'll do more. save this and let's talk in 5 years! (I've run large and businesses btw)
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@IsForAt @gregorykennedy Let me play devil’s advocate… conversions to what? A website? A store? (Why would I need to go to either?) A transaction? Maybe. But if so, does Google steer the transaction based on advertising? Or is the seller required to share some bounty?
Or?
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Gemini is going to win consumer. Been saying this since $GOOG was at $250.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
Exclusive: OpenAI’s top executives are finalizing plans for a major strategy shift to refocus the company around coding and business users on.wsj.com/3N6CFyr
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Brian Hall أُعيد تغريده
You're a real piece of shit.
How many Bronze Stars did you earn? Joe has 6.
How many years did you serve? Joe served 20.
How many tours in combat did you serve? Joe did 11 combat deployments.
Did your kids lose their mom in combat? Joe's did.
How many of these do you have: Army Commendation Medals, Combat Infantry Badge, Special Forces Tab, Ranger Tab, Military Freefall Parachutist Badge, Scuba Diver Badge etc, etc.
If you're so hot on fighting a war suit up and go, but you won't, you sit behind your computer in your air conditioned office and squeak like a little bitch. FO
Mark R. Levin@marklevinshow
I wonder if this guy Joe Kent was about to be fired but quickly resigned first. That's how these things typically work. He's part of that radical isolationist Woke Right cabal. Watch how the leftwing media use him to attack the president and the military campaign against Iran. In part, that's why he wrote that letter. I wonder if he was one of the leakers in the administration. Just asking questions.
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@SalmonMaster75 @gregorykennedy it's all proxies for referrals. the money is in the actual conversion. AI is going to actually make it easier in time. Honestly, I have very, very little doubt there.
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Google makes money on promoted blue links in search results. (I know I am simplifying but stick with me…) In old world you search, google promoted links. User clicks. Google gets paid.
AI changes this. No longer do you have to click a link. The relevant data/insight are part of the AI answer. And relevance if the answer is paramount. No need to click. Less opportunity to influence.
So the revenue model needs to be figured out. Eg, Does Google allow brands to pay to influence AI results? Does Google embed links or content? Do consumers accept this? Etc. That’s the revenue side.
On the cost side, LLM cost per result is many times more than cost per search. Sure, long run average cost is going to be lower. But how much lower? The frontier labs haven’t even figured out how to cost out inference costs, let alone training costs. But the bottom line is they are expensive - and will be expensive even with estimates coming efficiencies.
So, at least current state is that search/adv revenue is be under pressure (less oppty to adv in LLM results or capture clicks) and cost side is way more expensive.
So, make it up on volume?
I’m not saying the smart folks at Google (or Meta or elsewhere) won’t figure this out. I’m just saying it’s not obvious and not certain.
And most definitely threatening to a very nice legacy business model.
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data definitely not EASY, but I've been in enough places where if you just keep asking the common sense questions, get better data, have people who are committed in spirit to getting it figured out, you can make progress. Especially if you share the journey. I have no doubt that this could be done.
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This makes sense. A very good list.
I think that data shouldn't be hard to collect.
From my personal experience, over the last 4-5 years or so, I have been visiting Chinatown/Little Saigon area, and it has gone worse wrt fentanyl prob. They built a park near Little Saigon, but that park is now overrun by drugs.
But agree - have to quantify those and see where we are heading.
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I think the last sentence is super important.
It’s okay if you pay taxes, if they are utilized for making cities and state better.
The problem with Seattle is - it has gone worse - homelessness, property theft, fentanyl and have you driven the roads in downtown/caphill - they are horrible.
Public Libraries smell like shit, roads are dirty, buses smell like shit.
So why would anyone want to pay taxes if taxes are not utilized properly.
☔🔥☔@kirbywinfield
founders are moving out of washington too you guys. to the surprise of absolutely nobody with half a brain (or honest bone in their body)...
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Everyone knows what it’s like to scramble to get something done. Missing ingredients before people come over for dinner. Packing school lunches for the morning. Needing new headphones for tomorrow’s flight.
Teams across Amazon have been working to solve those problems, and today we're introducing 1-hour and 3-hour delivery options on over 90,000 products—everything from paper towels and cleaning supplies to electronics.
One-hour delivery is available in hundreds of cities and towns, and 3-hour delivery in over 2,000…with more coming. Should be a big help. aboutamazon.com/news/retail/am…
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@SalmonMaster75 @gregorykennedy um, have you seen Google's ad revenue? ;-)
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@gregorykennedy “Win” consumer
…and make it up on volume?
Consumer is currently an upside down proposition. And it’s one of the biggest risks to Googles core business.
Maybe they will be able to figure out a business model that makes sense. Will be watching
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Brian Hall أُعيد تغريده
This is what I have been saying: The fact that Washington's new taxes are bad for our state's economy is overwhelmingly obvious to business people (including leaders like myself whose income is below the threshold.)
"The decision to enact an income tax bodes ill for Washington’s economic future. Eleven states have done so since 1960: West Virginia, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Maine, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, New Jersey and Connecticut. We found that every one of them significantly underperformed the rest of the nation in every economic measure we looked at, including share of the nationwide population, income, and state and local tax revenue."
Wall Street Journal Opinion@WSJopinion
A secret to the Evergreen State’s success has been that it has no income tax. But Democrats in Olympia are perilously close to enacting a “millionaire tax” of 9.9%, write Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore on.wsj.com/4uArjUa
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@kirbywinfield @joewallin this is a trust in government issue now unfortunately.
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@joewallin do you really think they won't vaporize qsbs next session?
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Called my dad the other day and he was doing his taxes. Not with AI, not with TurboTax.
Pen and paper.
He’s doing a manual 1040 strictly for the love of the game.
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