aviel

@stevemur @choeshow He’s walking it back

@aviel @choeshow ? Still signals he’s going to sign…

Looks panicked here. With good reason. Implicitly acknowledges data is confirming wealth flight; only question is how much and how soon. Good question @choeshow.

“We lost the Sonics to a state that has an income tax, and we did not at the time,” Ferguson said. “Steph Curry pays a lot of money in California, and they have a pretty hefty income tax. So candidly, I just don’t think that’s got anything to do with anything.” The NBA has already said it’s a concern, but why would you listen?? Let’s unmask your false equivalency, Governor: Oklahoma City: 4.5% income | 8.6% sales California: 13.3% income | 9–10% sales WA (Seattle combined rate): 18% income | 10%+ sales + a 7% capital gains tax That’s not even close! First, if Steph Curry played in Seattle it would be even heftier! Shohei Ohtani even deferred most of his $700m contract to avoid CA income taxes. If WA is going to match or exceed California on taxes, why would elite talent choose Seattle over sunny California, massive markets, and far bigger endorsement opportunities? You can apply this exact same logic to the tech industry, Governor. Athletes, businesses, and high earners don’t ignore taxes, they optimize around them. If taxes didn’t matter, nobody would be trying this hard to avoid them, and we wouldn’t have massive capital flight before you even signed the bill! We should re-name the Sonics the Bureaucrats, because the only thing that’ll make money or be left when these guys play is the government. Bob Ferguson is going to doom this state.

@TravisSCouture @jesseproudman Same. This is something I hope gets our beyond the tech bubble. Going to do my best to make that happen. We need more things that crossover.

@aviel @jesseproudman This is cool. I’d love to see some of the solutions they come up with.

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Love this discussion. It matters.

@sawickipedia @IsForAt There can be many catastrophes at once! Haha

@IsForAt @aviel Same!

After last night’s escalation a lot of people are about to suddenly realize that modern liberal belief systems are a luxury item.

@sawickipedia @IsForAt Oil prices!

@bradsilverberg He has so many winning outs here

@aviel I mean, the governor could say, "Let's put the income tax to a vote of the people."

ROFL this is why I don't think he is gonna sign, advisors are getting to him. Either sign and look like a fool or don't and say this like a fool.

The Seattle startup ecosystem realizing that the new local and state taxes have completely destroyed any hope of recovery in the sector.

@bradsilverberg It passed house and senate and is waiting for Ferguson's signature. This is all connected.

@aviel What’s the status of the estate rollback bill (SB6347) that accompanies the income tax one? (Former WA resident here).

I don't think he's gonna pass it.

@KYRRadio Same page man!

If they repeal it I’m still moving the firm out of WA. I will also be putting more money (legally of course) into this election than I’ve ever contributed. We’re building a war chest. I want heads on the wall. In a purple district and voted for this, we’re coming for you in November

@TheStithLord Because I'm actually being more cynical. Almost better if he passes it with the last week's worth of data/narrative.

@aviel Really? What makes you so optimistic? I want it to be true but……

@stevemur He has been very consistent that he cares about WHERE the money goes over the tax itself, easy out if it can't.

TBH I'm not sure if that's not a worse outcome, completely fucks up my strategy for trying to turn things around and just mucks it up in meh as it doesn't go into effect before 2028 and we had some time to attack. I think this will happen because of some data I can't share + it's arguably a good strategic move for the party if played/positioned right (just a "delay"). The legislators up for immediate re-election got their win already.

@stevemur I think he can and will blame "fleeing" capital and companies instead. The money just isn't there anymore. But maybe I'm totally wrong! Full Cramer and he signs today!

@aviel Not only would it undermine the "emergency" assertion to delay it, but he'd earn the ire of the SEIU and teachers unions pushing for all this. I think he signs it. (As you know, I think it's a terrible policy and would strongly prefer that he not sign it.)

Tell them to text me, I get the keys to my new apartment down there in 2 weeks.