Jason V. Stewart

Resistance near 106 for $AAOI. If we can breach and close above it, we could easily get back to 120 levels. Solid opening so far.

$AAOI received a new order worth more than $53 million from one of its major hyperscale customers for 800G single mode data center transceivers to help expand its network capacity for AI driven workloads “AI infrastructure expansion is accelerating, and requires significantly higher bandwidth at scale,” said Dr. Thompson Lin, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of $AAOI “Our customers are adopting 800G not just for capacity and performance, but to manage long-term operating costs. Deploying 800G now helps to prevent network bottlenecks, improves power efficiency and lowers cost per bit, reducing the need for frequent upgrades.”

INSANE $AAOI is up 17.7% Same stock people were dumping three weeks ago over ATM dilution and insider sells. Here is what they got wrong. The fear was understandable. AAOI has burned people before. One customer drove most of their revenue in 2017 and when that relationship softened, the stock collapsed. They promised 400G traction in 2022 and were still in early 800G sampling a year later. The share count has ballooned over time. So when management raised $250M through an ATM and then set up another one, and insiders started selling, people assumed the worst. But the capital raise was not a warning sign. It was construction funding. AOI broke ground on a 210,000 square foot manufacturing facility in Sugar Land, Texas this February. That plant is expected to be operational by summer. They are not raising money to stay alive. They are raising money to build capacity fast enough to keep up with what customers are actually asking for. Since then the orders have come in back to back. March 9th, a major hyperscaler placed a $200 million order for 1.6T transceivers. Deliveries start in early Q3. Today, that same customer placed a $53 million 800G order specifically for GPU cluster buildout. Two orders from one customer in under three weeks. The firmware issue that was blocking the 800G ramp is resolved. Management confirmed it publicly. Capacity targets were revised upward at OFC from 500K to 650K units per month by year end. Full year revenue guidance of over $1 billion stands. They exit 2026 expecting three separate hyperscalers each above 10 percent of total revenue. The customer concentration problem that destroyed them in 2017 is being structurally fixed in real time. This is one of my largest positions. The orders exist. The facility is being built. The customer pipeline is expanding. The 2027 margin targets assume gross margins reaching 35 to 40 percent as the product mix shifts toward higher speed transceivers. The risk is execution. It always is with AAOI. A qualification delay or a customer pause can move this stock violently in either direction. But if they deliver, this is nowhere near fairly valued. That gap is why I have not sold a single share. Wrote a full breakdown on Substack. Link in bio and will drop it in the comments. $AAOI $LITE $COHR $SNDK $MU

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