@positivecarry88 @BoBbyPleWniaK Now compare all those companies revenues and profits vs TSLA... there's your difference. All the revenue Elon promised never came to fruition.
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Kelly Mullaney
513 posts
Still hard to believe $TSLA has dumped 8 weeks in a row, especially when QQQ has recovered substantially over the last two weeks.
Many have thrown in the towel on TSLA and are chasing something else. $TSLA has broken many hearts and will continue to do so. She’s not an easy ticker to hold. You have to be a special kind of crazy, have faith in Elon, and avoid the noise. The noise can be overwhelming at times.
Do what you gotta do. I’ve made my bed and sleep well at night.
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@jonathanwstokes @SawyerMerritt This is just AI slop. You can tell because the same number looks different throughout the image
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Tesla Robotaxi appears to be laying groundwork in at least 25 cities now.
Big thanks to @SawyerMerritt and the Tesla community for sharing much of the data that allows me to compile these charts.
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@DevinOlsenn Having a single robo taxi driving autonomously is incredible? Yeah... no it's not. Its 2026 and Waymo does 500,000 rides a week. There is nothing incredible about how far behind TSLA is right now. It has nothing to do with Elon's promises, its the results of the competition.
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I think Elon's ambitious timelines are sometimes his biggest challenge at Tesla.
He promised Level 5 Full Self-Driving by 2021. Here we are in 2026, and while we don't have true Level 5 yet, FSD Supervised is undeniably the best ADAS in North America. Without the early hype, more people might appreciate how far it's come instead of just saying 'but Elon promised X.'
Same with Robotaxis in Austin. Having even a single Tesla driving itself autonomously on public roads is incredible, Tesla AI deserves huge credit. But the promise of 500 Robotaxis by EOY 2025 clouds that progress for critics.
I totally appreciate how optimistic Elon is about the future, I do not think we would be where we are today without that. I do just wish people could appreciate what Tesla has done today, even if it's not quite what Elon promised.
My car drives itself 99% of the time, and that's just going to keep getting better with updates over time.
Robotaxi's in Austin are driving themselves, and that is just going to keep scaling (even if it's a bit slower than expected)
This hit me after seeing complaints about FSD 14.3 not dropping 'on time,' even though Elon said it would probably go wide by end of week. The tech is advancing fast. Let's enjoy the ride.
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@BoBbyPleWniaK @KoncreteOshare No it won't. None of the promises are going to come true. They never do and they never will. You are the exit liquidity. This shit is going down to sub $100 and SpaceX will acquire it. Musk wont care about TSLA once his liquidity isnt tied to it.
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@KoncreteOshare I know. By 2030 it’ll be ok and I should just buy more.
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Another 150 point pullback. Last year it was 260. Unreal this stupid stock $tsla.
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@BastianelliLore @sen_investing Yeah the direction is down dude
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Everyone is talking about $TSLA missing Q1 deliveries.
I own $TSLA. I'm not selling.
Here's why: the car numbers don't matter anymore.
What matters is April 22 — when Elon reveals the autonomy roadmap.
Miss on cars + big autonomy announcement = the bear thesis collapses overnight.
Is anyone else holding $TSLA through April 22?
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@ramahluwalia Dont know why this is on my feed today but this was the literal top in MSTR and BTC
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COMMUNITY & CAPITAL
Jim Chanos is both smart and not smart at the same time.
Chanos shut down Kynikos which was hedge fund shorting $TSLA.
His timing was off.
Now Chanos is making the same mistake shorting $MSTR.
$MSTR is running higher and Chanos is shorting this.
Chanos says he is doing what Saylor is doing:
buying bitcoin and selling shares of Microstrategy.
Chanos’s comparison is flawed because Saylor is not delta neutral nor dollar neutral.
Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy to exploit its premium over Bitcoin.
But Saylor buys Bitcoin to boost MicroStrategy’s value—opposite goals, not the same strategy.
Can Chanos stay solvent during this meltup?
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@LouisWei8 @munster_gene Your accusing TSLA bears of moving the goal posts? Elon and the cult make up new pretend businesses every 3 months lol
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@munster_gene It's amazing how fast people forgot about the "Tesla is doomed without the federal tax credit" narrative and went straight to the "oh my god, Tesla is missing the delivery consensus, which is more than Q1 last year" narrative.
We continue to play the game of...
GIF
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$TSLA is down because they slightly missed March delivery expectations.That doesn't change the takeaway.
March deliveries were the first solid read on underlying demand; they grew without the help of tax credits, and growth going forward should quicken.
Over the past two years, the top five carmakers have reduced EV investments by an average of 35%. I expect those reductions to be costly long-term.
Below is a deep dive.
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@munster_gene Yeah but the margins are going to be terrible. In order to stimulate demand they have 0% APR for like 72 months lol.
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$TSLA deliveries of 358K were up about 7% year every year. More or less in line with the whisper and a win for the company given it’s the first quarter where we get a true read on underline demand post last years September tax credit sunset.
The bottom line is Tesla deliveries are growing without the help of subsidies.
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@ramahluwalia Dollar General and Dollar Tree are great DCA plays after recent pullbacks. I already stacked energy and metals over the last 18 months, so these are 2 of my 5 main DCA targets this year. The bottom of the K shape is a giant leaf growing on the floor of the Amazon.
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what gets hurt now?
- biotech gets smoked
- industrials
- small caps
- consumer related
- credit related
- software
What does well?
Cash. Energy. Natural Gas. Midstream.
Cathie Wood hedging products
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Let me put this in perspective for you.
1) You have an inflation shock
2) Energy costs going from $2 Tn to [ $5 Tn to $8 tn ]
Consumer spending will take a hit, and it was weak before the Iran conflict
3) That hurts marginal businesses especially small caps
4) Bloomberg reports that datacenter projects are getting cancelled due to tariff and component constraints
5) The market does not believe Oracle’s RPOs are credit worthy
6) Valuations remain at high levels.
This is a major point… show me a category that is a bargain.
7) Interest rate costs are going up
8) Analysts have not yet reduced forward earnings estimates… your forward PE is not credible.
9) IRGC has had 2 decapitations and they aren’t bending.
Risk Off.
Sorry guys that’s just the facts…
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@ramahluwalia I really like XOM. 24 PE but earnings will explode.
Ive been saying for 12 months that Trump wants higher oil because the US has been the top producer for several year. Hes gonna do an export tariff to keep its price here at $85 a barrel and then sell it to Europe at like $150.
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US oil is still at $100.
The physical market for oil is $170 in Oman.
The inflation impulse is growing stronger.
I expect oil prices will be ‘higher for longer’.
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia
Germany's inflation came in high... BlackRock's Ric Reider says the Fed may cut rates. This only adds to inflationary pressures. Forget oil - take a look at the price of wheat, corn, soybeans. If you want to see 'why' cycles happen, you're seeing it in real time. Our centralized authorities are political first and have no discipline.
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@ramahluwalia Today is from quarterly rebalacing. Most funds are severely underweight their benchmarks with how the rough Q1 was.
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@KULOLO808 @loomersJK @KinggTrades Is the growth in the room with you right now?
TSLA Revenue
2023 96.8B
2024 97.7B
2025 94.4B
This is without factoring in inflation either
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@loomersJK @KinggTrades You think a high growth company should have a 15 PE?? Get outta here with your flawed logic.
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@ramahluwalia America has been the largest producer of oil in the world for several years now. Trump wants to run it hot and have oil skyrocket so he can export tariff it to Europe. He will purposefully crash the stock market (its already on its way along with housing). Dont buy the dip.
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If you’re going to panic, panic first.
We have a lot of cash and low beta going into what will likely be a large gap down Monday morning.
So long as the price of oil stays in the $90+, the risk of a 10 to 15% correction is elevated.
On the brighter side, the S&P and U.S. economy is far less sensitive to energy as it once was two decades ago…
thanks to fuel efficiency, energy independence, and energy diversification.
If the S&P does drop to, say, 6200 you should be aggressively buying stocks.
If you’re already following the Lumida Ledger newsletter over the last 6 weeks you are better prepared than most who are only now waking up.
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia
This is an excerpt from the Lumida Ledger. It was published on Feb 2, 2026 -- two days before the S&P started its 5% drawdown: "Risks are unusually elevated". People who say you can't time the market are often being sold to by asset managers who really don't care. The second snippet is from today's newsletter where I poke fun at AI. I listened to the Dwarkesh x Dylan pod... Thoughts to follow.
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@munster_gene Hey @munster_gene, its been more than a few months, is FSD solved?
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Musk says we’re a few months away from supervised FSD being solved and that means it’s time to ramp up production.
He aspires to increase production by 50% next year, exiting at an annualized rate of 2.7M cars, maybe hitting 4M by 2027 and 5M by 2028.
My take: They’ll ramp up production, but the supply chain will limit how fast they can expand. $TSLA
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@ramahluwalia FCX has out performed SPY by about 100% over the last 12 months. XME and XLE have also destroyed SPY.
We will continue to move further down the supply chain. First it was compute (which is why I told Asim to buy NVDA in 2015), now its memory, and next it will be commodities.
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@KellyMu919 Is it?
Higher input costs make COGS higher
Look at Freeport McMoraj get taken to the woodshed
They are linked to copper
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I saw a guy on CNBC saying he wanted to buy the dip on Industrials.
He pointed to names like Caterpillar.
That guy is clueless.
Take a look at $CAT historical valuation.
Now, ask yourself what happens to their forward earnings estimates when capital markets don't permit further AI capex funding.
Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida@ramahluwalia
AI MEETS INVESTING Can you front run Charles Schwab? Charles Schwab is selling $SCHW The Walton family is selling $WMT The President of Caterpillar is selling $CAT I figured this all out in 30 seconds with the latest killer feature add to the Lumida Invest app. We also found some undiscovered gens with CEOs buying their own shares. Insiders sell for all sorts of reasons: tax, liquidity, diversification. They buy for only 1 reason… We are now integrating this data feed into the existing Lumida Bull Bear scorecard and charting AI… We’re coming for Robinhood. Growing quickly. $HOOD
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@ObviousRises No you're just old and your aging fan base realized after years of simping for you that they were rewarded with nothing but you asking for more. Im sure there are plenty of young gamer girls attracting fresh new simps but your time has passed.
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This is like the digital version of women hitting the wall at 30 losing all her eggs then wondering where all the men (and her simps) have gone—she literally expected the "free gifts" and ride to go on forever. Unreal.
bloom 𖧧@bloomjpg
Pokimane talks about being a female streamer now vs 10–15 years ago "If you were a girl gaming online, people were actually so nice to you.. They treated you so well, they'd gift you free stuff.. It makes me sad"
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@WOLF_Financial Yeah because Elon is known for delivering what he promises...
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The recent X Money leaks are nothing short of incredible. This could be really interesting
The money you store on X Money will reportedly be FDIC-insured.
This means X Money isn’t just another crypto wallet, but a real fintech account.
And the yields on your money are beyond competitive, with deposits earning up to ~6% per year.
That’s better than money markets. And more than twice as much as Coca-Cola’s stock dividend yield. One of the most popular dividend stocks in the world.
But it gets better.
X Money users are reportedly eligible for the X Money debit card. Which offers 3% cashback.
This means everything you buy with this card is effectively 3% cheaper.
That 3% then goes into your X Money account, where it’s earning ~6%.
X Money also has direct deposit support with your W-2 job and peer-to-peer payments inside X.
Considering X is the go-to social media platform for investors, it’s a no-brainer that investors will also park their money here.
Excited to see this roll out soon!
What do you think?
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@shantplace This is stupid as shit. His healing factor made him immune to way stronger poisons than this so this would never even be a factor
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IT WASN’T ADAMANTIUM — THIS IS WHAT WAS KILLING WOLVERINE 🚨
> The real reason was something most fans completely missed.
> Adamantium didn’t poison Wolverine.
> At the end of Logan, it’s revealed that adamantium poisoning was not the reason Wolverine’s healing factor was slowing down.
> Instead, the real cause was anti-mutant GMOs planted in corn syrup by the government, which were suppressing and killing mutant genes.
> These GMOs were present in almost every type of food and also in alcohol.
> Because of this widespread contamination, the next generation of mutants stopped being born.
> Wolverine was a heavy drinker, meaning he was consuming these anti-mutant GMOs daily through alcohol.
> This constant intake weakened his healing factor, which is a natural part of his mutation.
> Also, adamantium is an indestructible metal, so it would be impossible for it to break down, shed, and poison Logan’s bloodstream.
> The “Worst Wolverine” from Deadpool & Wolverine is an example of this.
> He was over 200 years old and still in his prime, despite also being a heavy drinker.
> He showed no signs of adamantium poisoning.
> Conclusion: Logan wasn’t dying because of adamantium — his diet and the anti-mutant GMOs were actually killing him.
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@BullBrezza @joecarlsonshow Amazon is a horrible eexample. They were growing revenues like crazy in 2000 and their market cap was like $5 - 15B. Perfectly reasonable for a company that size. Absolutely absurd for a $1.5T market cap company that isnt growing and has been floating on tax credits for years.
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The valuation gap is real but the explanation is not irrationality.
Markets are pricing two completely different things.
Meta is being valued as an advertising business that happens to be building AI and hardware on the side, which means every delay is a miss against a known, measurable revenue model.
Tesla is being valued as an option on futures that have no current earnings attached to them, autonomous robotaxis, humanoid robots, and an energy business that is still subscale.
A 200 PE on a car company is absurd. A 200 PE on a bet that Musk eventually delivers one of four moonshots is a different argument entirely, and the market has decided that argument is worth making.
The dangerous part of this dynamic is not that Tesla is overvalued relative to current earnings.
It is that the option pricing only works if the future products actually arrive, and the track record on delivery timelines is what it is.
Every year the robotaxi does not exist the discount rate on that future cash flow should theoretically rise.
The market keeps resetting the clock instead. What this really reflects is that equity markets have learned to separate founder narratives from financial fundamentals in ways that classical valuation frameworks were never designed to handle.
That is not a new market. It is the same market that priced Amazon at 300 times earnings in 2000.
Some of those bets eventually paid. Most of the companies that got the same treatment did not.
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Tesla will endlessly delay products for over a decade and the stock will rocket to new highs with a 200 PE.
Meta delays a product for 2 months and sells down to a 20 PE while growing 5x as fast as Tesla.
This is the market we’re in today.
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