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Predict0r
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Predict0r
@Predicti0r
Prediction markets deep research. Undervalued bets and PM's arbitrage situations. PM's profit strategies. Usefull services for PM and analytics. @zscdao member
انضم Temmuz 2021
274 يتبع358 المتابعون

@BitcoinPulseX But we should research how to earn on this! Infrastructure projects? Ondo?
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@Cointelegraph The spring is already so tense that there should be a 2x shot in a week!
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@Polymarket Well, it's just the well-known FEMA teleport. Nothing new)))
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@bitcoinlfgo It's so typical)) macro and geo situation becomes more and more sad every day! But liquidity injections put markets up whatever))
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@coinbureau There will soon be a country with two parties: one Bitcoin party led by Saylor, and the other Ethereum party led by Tom Lee. I'd live there.
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@AshCrypto There will soon be a country with two parties: one Bitcoin party led by Saylor, and the other Ethereum party led by Tom Lee. I'd live there.
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@AshCrypto Is this the result of Donald Trump's negotiations with an imaginary Iranian delegation?
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@cryptorover It would be legendary! I think in the future, there will be an island where Saylor will be the president, and there will be an absolutely cool crypto vibe there.
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@Polymarket Nice profit opportunity for private equity firms. Interesting to read full conditions of this potential deal. Cashout through ipo or something else?
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@rawsalerts Is it possible to add a "something undefined" button?
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This market is not asking whether ETH vol stays elevated.
It's asking whether fear gets one clean shot before April 30. That's a much easier choise.
Market: What will the Ethereum implied volatility Index hit by April 30?
This is a touch market, not a close market. It resolves YES immediately if any 1 minute EVIV candle prints the listed level before April 30.
EVIV is Volmex forward-looking 30 day Ethereum implied volatility index, built from options quotes.
That means you do not need vol to live at 85 into month end. You just need one real repricing burst.
Macro and geopolitical:
1) The Iran war is now in its fourth week, Trump has issued a 48 hour ultimatum over Iranian power plants, and Iran has threatened retaliation against Gulf energy and water infrastructure. That is exactly the kind of headline regime that keeps option premia elevated.
2) Oil is still the key transmission channel. Brent finished around $112, the highest since 2022, as Hormuz disruption and regional escalation keep inflation risk alive. Higher oil usually means more macro stress, more crossasset volatility, and more demand for downside hedges.
3) ETH itself is not trading in a calm environment. It is still around $2050, and Citi just cut its 12 month ETH target while explicitly pointing to weaker activity metrics and a wider downside scenario range. That is not the kind of backdrop that usually crushes implied volatility lower.
Main pick: YES on above 85.
This is the cleanest risk/reward level on the board.
Why:
85 is a reachable spike, not an extreme tail. In the current regime, do not need a full market breakdown. Just one serious repricing wave.
Because this is a 1 minute touch market, the barrier is structurally easier to hit than a stay above 85 market would be.
The macro tape is still hostile to vol compression.
War headlines, oil shock, and inflation pressure all argue for sticky risk premium, not a smooth grind lower in implied vol.
As a trading heuristic, a push in EVIV to 85 is roughly the kind of repricing you can get from a sharp one-day ETH move of about 4–6%, especially if it comes with a weekend gap, war headline, or cross-asset risk-off impulse.
That is an inference, not a formal Volmex conversion, but it is the right order of magnitude for a one-shot vol spike.
Summary:
This market is not asking whether ETH vol will stay high forever. It is asking whether one real fear burst can print 85 before April 30.
With war escalation, oil above $112, ETH still under macro pressure, and this resolving on a 1 minute touch, above 85 is still the sharpest side.

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@OleksandrZaha11 Exactly, we potentially shouldn't wait long for resolve. Some impulsive announsments from Trump and we could get profits
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What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?
This is not a "where does the S&P close" market.
It's a one panic minute market and with oil, yields, and crypto all flashing risk-off, 6300 is still very live.
This is a touch market, not a close market. A contract resolves YES if, at any point before month end, the S&P 500 1 minute candle hits the listed level during regular trading hours.
That matters because you do not need a daily close at 6300. Just one fast flush.
The index closed March 20 at 6506, so 6300 is only about 3.17% below that level.
Macro and geopolitical backdrop:
The USA/Israel war with Iran has pushed oil sharply higher, with Brent moving above $112, raising the risk of another inflation shock.
The Fed held rates at 3.50% - 3.75%, lifted its inflation outlook, and still points to only one cut in 2026
February CPI was 2.4% y/y with 2.5% core, while PPI was still hot at +0.7% m/m and +3.4% y/y, keeping the stagflation narrative alive.
The S&P 500 has already logged four straight losing weeks, fell 1.5% on Friday, and broke lower into a weak technical setup.
Crypto already leaned risk-off over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped below $69200 after Trumpэs latest 48-hour ultimatum over Iranian power plants, a sign that weekend markets are already pricing Monday downside risk rather than relief.
Main pick: YES on dip 6300 at 27c.
This is the best risk/reward spot on the board and that's why:
Only -3.17% needed from 6506.48.
The market already showed it can lose 1.5% in a day, and this contract only needs one 1 minute touch, not a close.
Oil shock, higher yields, and a weak technical setup all point the same way. Reuters notes the recent 20 day correlation between the S&P 500 and USA crude is about -0.89
6400 is closer, but that is why it is already expensive.
6300 is where the move is still very plausible, while the payout remains meaningful.
Summary:
This is a touch market in a headline-driven, oil-shock regime.
With geopolitics worsening, inflation still sticky, the Fed not offering a rescue, and crypto already signaling weekend risk-off, dip 6300 at 27c is still the sharpest trade and 3x+ for 9 days looks so attractive

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@Liliwmili Completely agree. I could't imagine how markets would up when all againt it!
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@Predicti0r I think current situation can't move markets up near future. Combination of bad factors
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@Predicti0r Looks very real. some more than 3% down in such macro + geo
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@cryptorover Unfortunately, the fear and greed indicator has been working quite poorly lately.
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@pete_rizzo_ @saylor you are simply best! Waiting for BTC will end up on open sale and you pay your attention to ETH
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