Well, this is because the TRA settlement charge is not a nongaap item (duh)
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Rahul Setty
12.1K posts
Rahul Setty
@RahulSetty_
Focused on compounding by finding and holding multibaggers in size. Looking for the “fat pitch”.
انضم Ocak 2016
371 يتبع6.2K المتابعون
$FOUR solid growth guide overall, GB weighing but will take time (we knew that). Good buyback usage so far. Main question from the slide deck is explicitly mentioning whether the expected TRA settlement cost is reflected within the ‘incremental flow through’ of the 2026 adj FCF slide. Would go a long long way in clarifying.
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$HIMS has achieved federal govt agency BINGO! That’s now FDA, HHS, DOJ, SEC, and the middle spot is free! 🥳
Russell Young@Russby68
$HIMS is under SEC investigation?!
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@RahulSetty_ Are people arguing that? My impression was the investment case.
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$LMND $ROOT The discourse that Lemonade and Root are competing against each other is so incredibly silly, I cannot comprehend it. Both have immaterial market share in personal lines right now. They are the disruptors aiming to whittle away market share from the incumbents. Bulls of each should be rooting for the success of both as it represents validation of the greater insurtech category
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@CarioCapital Yep completely different. And growth/distribution approach is completely different too. Nuance required. Not fintwit’s strong suit.
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@RahulSetty_ They also have very different businesses as well. Almost all of $ROOT's business is car insurance while like 15% of $LMND's is car insurance
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Beginner investors see this and assume that “hey, this guy is saying outlandish things, he must know a thing or two”. But no. It’s a cash grab, same as it ever was.
GIF
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Linares is one of the most incredible marketers I’ve ever seen. No one is doing it like him (not an endorsement). I mean..what kind of message is this?
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@jevgenijs TOST is a really good pick here, but FOUR will feed families imo
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Toast $TOST looks like a no-brainer here, doesn't it? What am I missing?
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@bjmtweets Superinvestors would vomit if they saw my portfolio composition 😆😆
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If you're emulating how superinvestors are investing, keep in mind the majority of them would be investing completely different if they were dealing with a small amount of capital instead of large capital and fund constraints.
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@SixSigmaCapital Nice work! How big is trading account relative to long term account?
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Whilst people have been busy blowing up their accounts, after a strong Jan I’ve been focusing on defence with several small losses and a few small wins the story of the last month.
Up 25% YTD in trading account and long term account flat to green also
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@atelicinvest It’s so important to learn the right lessons from these things. (And sometimes, that “lesson” really is that no one really knows anything)
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@TravisHoium This seems very hopeful to me. 1x glp1 injectable revs since shortage ended is probably $500mm of damages and they’re continuing to sell it…..god forbid if they have to pay based on Novo’s retail value
But wishing you the best of luck
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If there's treble damanges it would be a fraction of GLP-1 revenue (patent payouts are a royalty even if there's infringement) x3 at worst. Treble is tough to get, so the more likely outcome is just the 1x royalties and an injunction (which is moot in 2031 anyway).
That potential payout wouldn't be until 2030 or 2031 most likely given how long patent cases take.
So, no, I'm not worried about treble damages. Novo and Hims have a huge incentive to make a deal in the next 4 years. This is why most patent cases are settled.
Novo only has until 2031 to squeeze as much as it can from Semaglutide and when retatrutide hits Novo's products will be under even more pressure.
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$HIMS continues to have a huge vision of disrupting the healthcare status quo.
This deal brings even more scale for the platform to leverage.
andrewdudum@AndrewDudum
Today, we’re on the fast track to becoming the leading global consumer health platform: we’ve agreed to acquire Eucalyptus, an international innovator in digital health. We’ve spent several years investing in our international footprint because we know that the status quo in healthcare across the world still doesn’t put the individual at the center. When I met @_Timdoyle many years ago, I knew immediately that we shared a similar perspective on how to change the status quo. Helping people feel great means tackling multiple conditions and recognizing that one size doesn’t fit all. It requires a diversified platform that can meet almost anyone where they are with care that is built for them. It’s what makes Tim and his team leaders outside the US, and it’s why we’ve made the decision to welcome them to Hims & Hers after closing. Their dedication to consumers has resulted in an incredible business with an ARR north of $450 million USD that delivered triple-digit year-over-year ARR growth every quarter last year. Together, we’re going to push the industry to put people at the center of healthcare and help more people experience care that feels like a luxury without costing like one. I have always known the value of what we’re building for customers at Hims & Hers isn’t restricted to borders. That’s even more true today. Read more here, including important footnotes and disclaimers: investors.hims.com/news/news-deta…
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I would like to long $OSCR again at some point. After a washout year for the industry in ‘25 no one believes in guidance, but with every quarter it’s met the market’s confidence will grow.
Diving just a tad deeper, Oscar’s specialized plans (after Hims I won’t use the p-word) position it for share gains and an early leader in ICHRA as that gradually rolls out over the next 1-2 decades. Seems pretty darn attractive here and stock is actually lower than my buys last summer.
Value Investigator@value_invest12
Oscar Health with a Giga 2026 outlook. Revenue guidance of $18.9b (+61%) $350 million earnings from operations vs 3650 market cap. SGA expense ratio scaling to 16% vs 17.5% in 2025 and 19.1% in 2024. $OSCR
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$TOST $FOUR The mix of software, hardware & payments isn’t going anywhere. (No surprise to anyone that’s been paying attention.)
Toast CEO when asked about AI impact: “[We’re] the most important piece of technology restauranteurs use around their business [where] all the work gets done…and it’s really broad.” ⬇️
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@inspector_token Yeah I figured, but would think still trending lower
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@RahulSetty_ The auto glr in Q4 had a one time effect
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I’ve been a $LMND skeptic for a long time and the jury is still out on bottom line, but my goodness that auto GLR (gross loss ratio) is an incredibly positive rate of change. Seems like a really good report
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets
Fantastic Q4 for $LMND Record low GLR, record low Car GLR TTM (see note), Europe numbers looking great, home/renters unbelievably low. Share price fully deserves to run after this (NFA, IMO)
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@GrowthThesis Combined ratios consistently >100 / high expense ratios + starting out in renters/pets which is easy to underwrite
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Good question. Investing (in general) is hard. But focus on ones that can consistently grow 20%+ per share on bottom line metrics like EBIT, EPS, FCF and trade at a similar valuation to the market or less on those (that look to continue and are not being disrupted, smart management teams).
I run pretty concentrated but I would recommend 15-25 names to start with and as you go along you can find your style. You want a mix of top dogs in important industries, some big tech, some semis, some software, some payments, some misc, and some of them can be anchor stocks – steadier ones where maxing return isn’t the primary goal.
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@RahulSetty_ Any in particular you are looking at? Getting started with growth investing
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It’s crazy how much good, quality growth stocks have been beaten up over indiscriminate AI fears – or maybe an excuse for fund managers to sell and rotate into different sectors that are “safe” and going up (momentum friendly). For the first time in a long time, long term investors/stockpickers with a multiyear horizon should get pretty excited imo
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@CuriousinHell I don’t disagree. but rarely is an idea perfect with no warts. dilution is partly why it traded where it was
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Monster results from $RELY, stock is probably still cheap (I did like the idea when I looked at it but no position)
Brett@CCM_Brett
Remitly $RELY - 26% revenue growth - Active customers up 19% (locking in future revenue growth) - New CEO from AMZN payments/marketplace - Huge operating Margin expansion - New products rapidly gaining traction Stock was trading at close to 2x gross profit before today
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