Brian McCormick
10.4K posts
Brian McCormick
@bjmtweets
Exited Founder turned investor. Sharing business research. Fundamental asymmetric approach. Focus: $ROOT, $AMD, $KLAR, fintechs, insurtechs, and AI.
California Katılım Şubat 2012
143 Takip Edilen5.2K Takipçiler
I transferred my Robinhood account to Fidelity.
Did I make a wrong move?
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@nanalyzetweets Would like to hear your bull cases on stocks. Most money is made being longterm bullish. What are you bullish on?
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Maybe the most interesting thing about Figma $FIG is the "AI credits" pricing model they began enforcing this month.
The least questionable thing might be their TAM - they claim $33 billion for collaborative design software. Not small but not that big really. How credible is this number?
Now $FIG will say that designers only make up a third of users, and that they plan to do "so much more than design" along with the cash to dabble in some M&A.
Fair enough, but that sort of broad expansion can be tough to actually execute on. This is why paying attention to net retention rate is so important. Are existing customers spending more over time?
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I’m a $ZETA bull, but initially, I’m questioning the necessity of this.
Serena Williams and Tom Brady appeared at the last $ZETA live event and I initially doubted that.
But, at that time $ZETA was less well known, and they were aggressively promoting their brand and business.
With that being said, the event turned out to be success, generating significant revenue and awareness for $ZETA - that’s fair and seemingly worthwhile.
But now, and especially by October, do we really need this level of promotion by a paid actor, when $ZETA is already taking market share and gaining traction.
This feels like a questionable use of capital.
Thoughts?
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Breaking: Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them wsj.com/tech/jeff-bezo…
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@realroseceline @wealthmatica Do you personally buy at a technical zone, DCA, or other when loading?
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@wealthmatica Why is it an obviously buy at 20.7x earnings but for example not 22x or 23x earnings? Is there really that big of a difference if you buy it and hold it for the next 10 years?
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OK honestly though...
When does $FICO become an obvious buy?
For me, that's around $935/share.
- Forward P/E: 20.7x
$FICO
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Bought a new stock related to my $GTLB thesis today
Only 20 people hold it in all of the Blossom App
$SOFI has 12,000 holders in @meetblossomapp by comparison
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@bjmtweets I'm slowly DCA'ing into it. I think in this market it can easily drop more... but at the same time I'm not trying to time the market TOO much as I really do believe today is a good value/price.
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Being transparent on the good, and the bad.
I am down $1000s on $BABA still. I started buying back in 2021, you can see my green buys.
Cost basis across all the buys is around $160ish
I still view this as my China hedge, but it's a reminder to not try to catch a falling knife, and to never be in a rush to buy a stock. Back in 2021 I felt that the deals would vanish, or we would have another V shaped recovery on a fall.
Overall I'm 100,000s up on my investments, but that doesn't mean you don't get punched in the face along the way.
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@LiebermanAustin Cyclical. Winter weather, holiday slowdown, and fewer listings all compress in January. Data via New York State Association of Realtors below.
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Anyone know why there was such a huge drop in new home sals?
Polymarket Money@PolymarketMoney
US NEW HOME SALES PLUNGED 17.6% MONTH OVER MONTH IN JANUARY TO 587K.
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I’m a long way from New York City 😅
Reconnecting with nature 🧘♂️
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I’ve been telling you this was coming.
For months.
Now it’s playing out.
This is what happens when people ignore the signals.
I’m not here to hype you up…
I’m here to keep you on the right side of the market.
Stay locked in.
I’ll help you navigate what comes next friends.
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@low_IQ_trader @howtoinvest_jb Also impressed by Aaron. Jake has good points on likely FCF growth, inflection, and other factors he considers such as market theme/narrative potential.
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@bjmtweets @howtoinvest_jb Impresses by Aaron, his approach seems more rational while Jake is more emotional and maybe attaches his ego to Path.
That racism claim against the CEO was weird.
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Great conversation to listen to and sharp thinking by @jakebrowatzke and Aaron at @howtoinvest_jb on how they are thinking about $PATH, $KLAR, $FOUR, $LMND, and $DUOL
HowToInvestJB@howtoinvest_jb
Are We Considering Ending Our All-In Position On $PATH? Join Aaron and Jake for a candid behind-the-scenes team meeting as we debate our latest portfolio positioning following recent earnings reports. We dive deep into the fundamental business models, future upside, and current market valuations of some of the most disruptive companies out there.
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$LULU -1% on a double beat but weaker and expected outlook. US/Americas sales absolutely cooked. International growth looks good though. Tariff costs hurting. Stock was so beaten up going into print which helped. Bulls need to hope rollout of new lines get customers back.
Investor_NICK@Investor_NICK_
$LULU earnings day is always entertaining. Sentiment so washed and stock so beaten up. Makes you wonder how bad things need to be for stock to go meaningfully lower.
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@ASchulz888 Already did. It was a 30% position before profit taking.
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@bjmtweets Good luck with it. I need to think about it some more. It's not an unreasonable thesis, but $NVDA is a hell of a company to compete against.
Either way - I hope it works out for you.
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Portfolio Update: Increased to 5 positions
I like all of these bull cases. $GTLB is one of the few AI beneficiaries without the threat of supply glut or customer concentration and is reasonably insulated from a recession.
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@ASchulz888 We are already seeing the thesis play out vs when I started the investment last year. Since then, OpenAI and Meta have made significant commitments.
All business and industry is dynamic. A good investment and thesis has a margin of safety to allow for that.
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I get your bigger picture point. The argument about $NVDA vs. $AMD might be more complicated though, especially after the Groq acquisition.
The $NVDA stack has optimization opportunities across an entire datacenter that $AMD currently lacks.
Doesn't mean $AMD won't do well anyway, but $NVDA is smart, fast, and aggressively plugging the holes in their strategy.
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@ASchulz888 FYI - Here is some more detail on AMD in specific for GPU vs Nvidia. Similar foundational points for other stocks I could go into.
x.com/bjmtweets/stat…
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets
$AMD is actually on a favorable design path vs $NVDA. Nvidia pursued monolithic chip design instead of chiplets. This worked great as long as they could keep making the wafers bigger and TSM kept improving NM of chips. Yield may be worse this way, but efficiency and raw power is at its best. Which is why they are so attractive for training. However, TSM is at the theoretically physical limits of NM improvements (in fact, the smaller NM wafers are not even smaller now, it's just marketing where improvements are driven elsewhere). Nvidia's response is that since they can't make chips better with bigger or significantly improved wafers, they will start connecting duplicate dies together into one chip. The blackwell connects two duplicate dies together. They can continue this and connect 4 dies. But continuing on this trajectory to connect 8, 16, etc... is not a sustainable path. Whereas, $AMD is already a leader in chiplet design (connecting smaller purpose made chips together, not duplicates) and use of advanced packaging (adding height instead of width to a wafer) and using it to their advantage on memory. It also gives AMD better Total Cost of Ownership over Nvidia, and faster iteration speed of new chips, since they can use chiplet libraries to upgrade quicker over redesigning entirely new full wafers like Nvidia does for the most part. $AMD has already significantly narrowed the gap in their chips efficiency vs $NVDA, and is leading in multiple areas. Their biggest disadvantage is no true rack solution, which releases this summer, and will be used by OpenAi and Meta. New $AMD and $NVDA chips are now coming toward parity. With Nvidia's biggest lead being in interconnect speed. If $AMD can get a comparable solution, they could even take the lead... Or simply by iterating faster through chiplet release speed.
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@ASchulz888 I look at the fundamental structure and roadmap of the company, and where I expect the business to be in 2-3 years and also longterm versus where the business is priced today.
10 years ago, conventional wisdom was AMD is second in class in CPU. Now they are the leader.
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@bjmtweets I love the allocation % of your portfolio.
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Charge off rates for the Pay in 30 and Pay in 4 are incredibly low, around 1%. The short duration also means they come off the balance sheet quickly.
Most of the revenue on BNPL comes from merchant fees. They aren't designed for interest.
BNPL merchant fee powered loans are by design less risk, as Klarna can deny customers on a per item basis. Traditional credit is an open line up to a limit.
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@bjmtweets @Mindset4Money_X Do you find the credit health of a large ticket item customer tends to be better than small ticket? I can’t imagine someone using BNPL on chipotle for example to be a better borrower than someone buying an iPhone on average
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