Talk-Shop

I asked my wife for a book for Christmas. She crushed it:

See thread below. It’s not a “discounted reciprocal tariff rate”. It’s a country’s US trade surplus divided by their US exports. These clowns make Pete Hegseth look like Albert fucking Einstein. It’s a complete fucking joke except the joke is on us.

DID I CRACK IT? I think I figured out at least a chunk of the math. It's trade deficit divided by their exports. EU: exports 531.6, imports 333.4, deficit 198.2. 198.2/531.6 is 37, close to 39. Israel: exports 22.2, imports 14.8, deficit 7.4. 7.4/22.2 is 33.

If a showroom has only Fiat & Ambassador, will it ever showcase a Ferrari? What if imports of Tesla & Ferrari are banned? Here's my hypothesis for why our stock market got over inflated. The roots of it lie in RBI's decision to deny higher overseas limit to MFs in 2022. Capital is like water, it must be free to find its level. Huge amounts of capital entered the market in 2022-24 and sloshed around in the same 500 domestic stocks. It provided a lucrative exit to promoters, FIIs & anyone who was already invested in them. Remember 50% of MF investors entered the market after 2021. They say India is a capital starved country & so we need to hoard it. Yet we trade at huge premiums to other emerging markets even now at 20 PE. Retail capital has become a giant subsidy to promoters & asset managers. It has nowhere else to go! Our financial services sector is like a showroom with only a few cars & so it keeps selling them. It knows there are better cars, but cannot stock them. So keep buying it yells, keep buying...for the long term... Now you will say we make really good cars (stocks) and yes we do. But they cannot always be the best & at all prices. Indian investors & MFs must be allowed to look at all the showrooms in the world and make a free choice. If they still choose India, that's great.