Ben Hunt
44.7K posts
@EpsilonTheory
Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.
“Markets don’t break on bad news—they break when it compounds.” Why is the market sitting near all‑time highs despite war, an oil shock, and mounting concerns in credit? It is probably the top question on investors’ minds right now. On the latest episode of Last Call, we bring together Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba to tackle that question and discuss what it could mean for markets going forward. Timestamps 0:00 Intro and market overview 1:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news 3:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience 6:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit 8:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies 10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth 14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks 17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear 18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment 20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk 22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework 24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven 26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus 29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup 31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning 33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations 35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver 37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets 40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk 44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning 47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil 49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership 51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity 54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure 56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility 58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership 01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate 01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications
A 2005 state-designed worm designed to corrupt physics simulations sat undetected on VirusTotal for nearly a decade. Fast16, intercepted executable files at the kernel level and silently rewrote floating-point calculations to make them produce slightly wrong answers. Targets: high-precision engineering suites used for structural analysis, crash simulations, and physical process modeling, including LS-DYNA, a tool cited in reports on Iran's nuclear weapons research. The sabotage vector relied on deployment of the driver across a network via worm, corrupting calculations on every machine, and eliminating the possibility of cross-checking results against a clean system. Stuxnet got the documentary. Fast16 got twenty years of nothing. sentinelone.com/labs/fast16-my…
Meet Agents++ Our first open-source release to develop the next generation of technology that will build smarter markets. Agents are moving from tools to actors, initiating and coordinating actions across systems as delegated extensions of users and institutions.
