Knowcebo

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Knowcebo

Knowcebo

@bramble

Ein jeder Engel ist schrecklich.

California انضم Mart 2007
1.8K يتبع450 المتابعون
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
The Iranians toll the Strait of Hormuz, start a side hustle selling watches. Fridays, Trump threatens to Alderaan them. Mondays, he backs down. The markets yo-yo like Benny Profane. This goes on for decades. We all slowly turn into frogs. The earth heals itself. The End.
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
@Benjones2Jones That's right, but I do wonder sometimes if I miss the forest for the trees. I want to write emotionally gripping weird fiction, not The Virgin Suicides. I can say that now, but ofc the moment I sit down in front of the page, the obsessions take over.
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AGoodQuestion
AGoodQuestion@Benjones2Jones·
@bramble Basically it's just a matter of results and whether they please you. And I've certainly seen things in novels that I found grating.
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
I try really hard never to use "floor plan" description in my fiction, always attempting to weave it into the action. Then I read a novel, and it's like, "Upstairs, off a balcony overlooking the living room, were three bedrooms." Maybe I'm a midwit who can't enjoy life.
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
@TheRealVarnVlog @3mericanj0hnson If Cutrone was pontificating about Bataille, I might be tempted to listen in. But Yarvin? He must be auditioning for the Red Scare podcast.
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
@AliceFromQueens I think state governments and small businesses will eat the oil shock, not the financial markets or large corporations. Why voters put up with this pattern of too big and too detached from everyday people to fail, I don't know. But they have so far.
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Alice
Alice@AliceFromQueens·
I’d say this is likeliest to hold up. If you think the US will be uniquely devastated by our latest mega-blunder, the burden is on you to identify the mechanism of its oncoming devastation.
Philippe Lemoine@phl43

Once again, people really underestimate how powerful and secure the US is, which is why they keep hoping against all evidence to the contrary that something terrible will befall to Americans because of their foreign policy blunders that will finally make them learn and stop doing stupid shit. But even in the worst case scenario, where Trump orders a ground invasion and it turns into a quagmire that lasts years, Americans will be fine. They will be harmed, but less than almost everyone else, because the US will be relatively insulated from the both the energy shock and the economic slowdown that will result from it since it's a net exporter of energy and is probably the least trade-dependent major economy. Moreover, while the cost will be huge even for Americans, it will be relatively invisible because 1) it will be very diffuse, 2) Americans are so rich that even a much larger cost per capita would still leave them very well-off and 3) people won't really see it for the same kind of reasons that Bastiat explained a long time ago in his parable of the broken window. For the rest of the world, especially some of the poorest people, it will be a different story, but Americans mostly won't feel much. Even the invasion of Iraq, which is widely seen as one of the worst foreign policy blunders in US history and cost the US trillions of dollar, didn't make such a huge difference for Americans. They complain about it and talk about how it was a terrible mistake, but for the average American it was mostly a non-event, for the same reasons I just mentioned. I also don't think it will have the effects some people think on US influence in the world in general and in the Middle East in particular. It's not going to end the role of the dollar and I don't think Gulf states will abandon their alliance with the US either. Where else would they go? It's not as if China was going to protect them from Iran or as if they had a lot of attractive yuan-denominated assets to buy with their earnings from oil and gas exports. To be clear, I don't say that to defend this stupidity or to deny that it will have large costs even for Americans in absolute terms (to say nothing of the effects it will have on the rest of the world), I'm just saying that people are fooling themselves if they think that it will teach Americans a lesson. At best it will be a very short-lived lesson they will forget after a few years because it won't matter much for them.

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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
@AliceFromQueens Does turning on him boost their chances of keeping their seats? Maybe only for a few? And who wants to jump into the pool first? Their cowardice makes sense to me.
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
Your local economy is going to suffer from the oil shock whether or not high finance, tech, and large corporations do. That's because small businesses are more sensitive to the hidden tax of higher fuel costs.
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
The people in this thread make a strong argument. If Trump can get the ME back to the status quo soon (by the end of the month, say), then markets can easily stabilize after hitting a speed bump. If not, the wheels fly off, and the car explodes. It's a weird situation to be in.
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart

Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the highs of the month, but, as @JavierBlas pointed out, far below the 2022 highs?

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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
@DougLain I don't get the Rousseau hat tip. Might have this wrong, but JJR thought that the general will transformed everybody's purely selfish desires into something new, so that is different than the aggregate of opinion. Not seeing what that has to do with oil prices, though.
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Knowcebo أُعيد تغريده
Philippe Lemoine
Many people are replying to this by saying that the US will also be harmed, but I never denied it and even said so explicitly. What I'm saying is that, while the *aggregate* cost will be very large even for Americans, the *felt* cost *per capita* would be small *relative to how rich they are* and therefore Americans won’t learn any lesson except very temporarily. Sure, Americans won't like it when the price of gas at the pump keeps rising and it may even force Trump to TACO eventually, but that's still a very small cost in comparison to what the US attack is going to wreak on Iran and the rest of the world and, apart from that, most of the cost for Americans will be hidden. That's because, while most Americans will be made worse off than they otherwise would have been in a counterfactual where the US and Israel didn't attack Iran, they won't observe that counterfactual, nor will they think about it. This is why I was referring to Bastiat's parable of the broken window, which he developed in a little book called What is seen and what isn't seen that everybody should read, where he explains that because people only focus on the visible effects of policies and ignore their invisible consequences, they often embrace bad policies. Again, even the Iraq War, widely seen as one of America's worst foreign policy blunder, only had minimal effects on the average American despite the fact that it destabilized the entire Middle East and cost trillions of dollars. Similarly, even in the worst case scenario, the Iran War will have a small impact on Americans relative to the cost it will impose on the rest of the world, not to mention Iran whose economy will suffer for years because of this war even if they can force Trump to TACO. Republicans will get clobbered in the midterms over it and people will mention for years how stupid it was, just like what happened after the invasion of Iraq, but at the end of the day it will not be experienced as a personal disaster by Americans and they won't learn any lesson from it except very temporarily.
Philippe Lemoine@phl43

Once again, people really underestimate how powerful and secure the US is, which is why they keep hoping against all evidence to the contrary that something terrible will befall to Americans because of their foreign policy blunders that will finally make them learn and stop doing stupid shit. But even in the worst case scenario, where Trump orders a ground invasion and it turns into a quagmire that lasts years, Americans will be fine. They will be harmed, but less than almost everyone else, because the US will be relatively insulated from the both the energy shock and the economic slowdown that will result from it since it's a net exporter of energy and is probably the least trade-dependent major economy. Moreover, while the cost will be huge even for Americans, it will be relatively invisible because 1) it will be very diffuse, 2) Americans are so rich that even a much larger cost per capita would still leave them very well-off and 3) people won't really see it for the same kind of reasons that Bastiat explained a long time ago in his parable of the broken window. For the rest of the world, especially some of the poorest people, it will be a different story, but Americans mostly won't feel much. Even the invasion of Iraq, which is widely seen as one of the worst foreign policy blunders in US history and cost the US trillions of dollar, didn't make such a huge difference for Americans. They complain about it and talk about how it was a terrible mistake, but for the average American it was mostly a non-event, for the same reasons I just mentioned. I also don't think it will have the effects some people think on US influence in the world in general and in the Middle East in particular. It's not going to end the role of the dollar and I don't think Gulf states will abandon their alliance with the US either. Where else would they go? It's not as if China was going to protect them from Iran or as if they had a lot of attractive yuan-denominated assets to buy with their earnings from oil and gas exports. To be clear, I don't say that to defend this stupidity or to deny that it will have large costs even for Americans in absolute terms (to say nothing of the effects it will have on the rest of the world), I'm just saying that people are fooling themselves if they think that it will teach Americans a lesson. At best it will be a very short-lived lesson they will forget after a few years because it won't matter much for them.

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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
@ShyBucketGetter That book will frustrate you. The story is pithy enough that you think you can decode it. You can't.
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Shaun Johnson
Shaun Johnson@ShyBucketGetter·
Just finished The Crying of lot 49. My first time reading Pynchon. I liked it a lot, but I think I missed some of the deeper subtext. I’ll probably have to read again eventually
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Knowcebo
Knowcebo@bramble·
Someone on here is saying Cormac McCarthy is merely William Faulkner patische. I haven't read much of it, but I hear early CM is Faulknerian in sentence style, but he doesn't have Bill's big heart. Faulkner will rape you with a corncob, but he'll find the humanity in it.
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