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Douglas Lain
36.9K posts
Douglas Lain
@DougLain
Disgusting CIA socialist, writer & YouTuber. Head of @sublationmedia. Author of Bash, Bash, Revolution Patreon https://t.co/VFXCzs9VbV [email protected]
Portland, OR Katılım Kasım 2008
3.3K Takip Edilen8.5K Takipçiler
@HighlandsBunker My error is so minor compared to the Iran is winning crowd.
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@DougLain Consistently wrong but still offering analysis lol
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I expected the Strait to be open by the end of April, and was wrong. So why was I wrong? Because Iran calculated that Trump would walk away in order to keep the price of gas down and his chances in the midterms up. That may be correct. The markets have priced in a relatively quick resolution of the conflict too. The UK is sending a warship to the Strait to assist with reopening by force.
If Iran doesn't make a deal here is what I think will happen next. There will be a US effort to force the Strait open, renewed but limited bombing to reduce Iran's capacity to interfere in the Strait, and eventually an International coalition. But it will take time, traffic won't resume at normal levels for several months, the Bull year will be over, and the Democrats will have a better shot at taking both houses.
This doesn't amount to an Iranian victory, but it does amount to a loss for Trump in particular, and a loss for everyone waiting for gas prices to go down.
Chili Dog@RobertJMolnar
pretty sure the game has run out.....we can expect Trump to do his usual Sunday "we have had great discussions and are close to a deal" bullshit tomorrow, but the markets aren't buying it anymore Iran has choked Trump, and is in total control of the situation and we and the world, are going to suffer Not gonna lie......waiting on Iran regime to outright call for Trumps unconditional surrender lol
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@walterkirn I am a Marxist and when I first published the 'zine that later became a long running podcast I listed it in fact sheet five under Ufos and Anarchism.
But I'm an outlier.
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I don't think Marxists like UFOs and the idea of Non-Human intelligences somehow. They are old-school materialists and think socialist man is the pinnacle of life in the universe. And they dislike mysteries in general, as people who have had it all figured out since the 1800s.
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@pati_marins64 If Iran were to sink a US war ship the military response from the United States might very well be off the charts. That constrains Iran. This is asymmetric warfare and both sides are not unleashing all the might they could.
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Why the American strategy has been working by exploiting Iranian inertia
When President Trump instituted the blockade on Iran, he stated multiple times that he would starve the Iranian economy in a short period.
At the time, I wrote that this would not happen; Iran had connections to Asia via the Caspian Sea, as well as a railway, and Trump could not squeeze Iranian exports beyond a certain limit because it would result in less oil on the market.
This blockade never predicted that the Strait of Hormuz blockade would be undone because of it. He had much bigger ambitions, and all of them failed except for one.
However, it normalized the approach of a belt of American military vessels that, in certain regions, began operating just 200km from the Iranian coast.
The blockade went further, seizing and targeting Iranian ships near the coast in an increasing escalation that culminated in destroyers entering the Strait of Hormuz, weakening the Iranian narrative that the strait was closed.
On the other hand, this strengthened Trump’s narrative that he was reopening the strait with his ships.
Although Iran has fired upon and targeted commercial ships in the presence of these destroyers, it has clearly avoided causing damage to American military vessels.
And why do I say this with absolute certainty?
In the Houthis’ confrontation with the task force in the Red Sea, missiles with a range of 800km based on Iranian technology were already being used.
Since then, this technology has only improved to the point where I can say with conviction that, combined with fast boats, submarines, and aerial, underwater, and surface drones, it would be lethal for American destroyers at that 40-100km distance if Iran chose to act.
Instead, Iran sought propaganda, releasing a video of an anti-ship missile launch.
Now, when your coastal installations are under attack, with three enemy destroyers inside your blockade zone targeting your ships, you don’t fire one anti-ship missile, you fire a hundred of them to show that the line should not be crossed.
Full article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…
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The WAPO article is based on an anonymous CIA agent. I remember when 17 intelligence agencies said that Trump was colluding with Russia.
The truth is probably betweeen Trump's overhyped claim and this number from the CIA.
Daniel Dale@ddale8
President Trump yesterday: "Their missiles are mostly decimated; they have some, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had." WaPo today: "Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began." washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
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@thevivafrei Rubio said ten sailors on tankers have died while stuck in the strait.
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The Iranian regime is certainly more oppressive and corrupt than the US. This is obvious to everyone.
roz@rozpersian
The Iranian government is no more evil and corrupt than the US government, the only difference is that the Iranian government feels no need to hide their evil and wrongdoings. Nothing is classified or hidden, they don’t attempt to pretend they’re something they’re not. That is the only difference between these two evil entities
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@BarakRavid @vplus You’ve become like a propaganda spokesperson for him and his regime.
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🚨🚨🚨Trump: Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed
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@TheSwoletariat_ @TLiterarian No. That's wrong. And it's obviously wrong.
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@TLiterarian @DougLain Yes. The war that never would have happened but for Israel's influence on low IQ Trump
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Iran will not control the Strait forever, and Iran is economically and politically in shambles.
We should all be fucking glad that a theocratic repressive regime isn't stronger than the most democratic and open country in the world. It's a positive sign.
History Speaks@History__Speaks
I sincerely do not understand the arguments that the US/Israel has "won" or is "winning" the Iran war. Strategically speaking, the most important outcomes of the war so far are that Iran controls the Strait and the Iranian government has become much more hardline. It has also probably gained more support from the Iranian population, i.e. it is more entrenched than it was before the war. Now, has the US killed vastly more Iranians (mostly civilians and conscripts) than Iranians have killed Americans? Sure. That's nothing of which to be proud. And more to the point, it doesn't entail the achievement of any strategic goals. If it did, the US won the wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam. Tactical achievements are not strategic victory.
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Hillary Clinton started an FBI investigation into her opponent, perpetrated a fraud on the American people called Russiagate, and her party instituted a massive censorship campaign.
The Democrats are certainly as corrupt as Trump.
Michael Freeman@michaelpfreeman
What a profoundly dishonest argument. Hillary Clinton didn't go to court dozens of times in an attempt to overturn votes, didn't call a state official and pressure him to find her several thousand votes, and didn't have her supporters storm the Capitol. She also conceded.
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@WalshFreedom @joerogan Clinton was involved in pushing the Russiagate conspiracy from the beginning.
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Why do you spread such dishonest bullshit @joerogan? Hillary publicly conceded & congratulated Trump the morning after Election Day. She then didn’t say a word about the 2016 election for 3yrs. And Trump didn’t just “question” the election. He refused to accept the result. He lied about it. And still does. And then he committed crimes trying to overthrow the election. He’s the only president in American history to do ANY of that. And he’s trying to fuck with the elections this year. And he again won’t accept the election results this year. So yeah Rogan, you attack our elections process like that, you ARE a threat to democracy.
matrixbot@thematrixb0t
Joe Rogan: "They'll pretend that Hillary Clinton didn't do multiple speeches where she said that the election was stolen, Russia stole the election, with no evidence. But when [Trump] questions the election, it's a threat to democracy."
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After 39 days of war, several core assumptions about Iranian behavior are becoming clear:
First, Iran is unlikely to capitulate or be deterred by U.S. president threats. Coercion alone does not appear sufficient to change Tehran’s strategic calculus.
Second, Iran views control over the Strait of Hormuz as a core strategic interest, on par with its nuclear and missile programs.
Third, when faced with a choice between what it perceives as surrender and escalation, Tehran will choose escalation.
Fourth, the current leadership structure, heavily influenced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, appears less constrained by traditional cost-benefit considerations.
Fifth, Iran may be open to a ceasefire, but only if it leads to a new strategic reality: one that includes compensation and guarantees against renewed conflict.
Sixth, Tehran is systematically leveraging asymmetric capabilities throughout the conflict, likely as preparation for its continuation or renewal.
Seventh, Iran appears to believe it can absorb pain better than its adversaries, that the global economy, and the United States in particular, are more vulnerable to prolonged disruption.
Eighth, if Washington’s objective is to compel Iran to accept its terms, it would likely require a fundamental change in the regime itself, an outcome that carries its own risks and uncertainties.
Ninth, the maritime blockade, despite its advantages, was never likely to force Iranian capitulation. The assumption that it could was as flawed as the belief that decapitating leadership would collapse the regime.
Finally, U.S. policy appears to be operating on familiar assumptions, treating Iran as if it were a different kind of adversary. But Iran is not Venezuela. And relying on advice that captures tactical details without grasping the broader strategic picture risks repeating the same mistakes.
A resumption of the war along its current lines is unlikely to produce a different outcome. If anything, it will only further deteriorate the state of the global economy.
In other words, continuing down the same path will not change the strategic equation, it will simply raise the economic costs.
#IranWar
Clash Report@clashreport
Trump to Fox News: Iranians are being far more malleable than they were in the past.
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@Wehtammzo @ajamubaraka I was wrong again. Teach me to take tweets that I don't verify too seriously.
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@DougLain @ajamubaraka Boy I sure am glad that I got out of USO….thank goodness Trump got the oil flowing again like you thought he would…
•Hank Hill voice* “Bobby, it’s a good thing those leftists don’t have any money to invest because they’d be really upset with you right now.”
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Folks, this will not happen. Any intrusion into the territorial waters of Iran by a nation currently waging war against it will most likely be met with lethal force. But the psychopathology of white supremacy distorts the cognitive function of those afflicted by it.
Drop Site@DropSiteNews
⭕️ Just In: U.S. President Trump said Washington will launch a maritime effort starting Monday morning to escort foreign vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, citing requests from countries with ships stranded amid regional tensions. Trump described the plan, “Project Freedom,” as a humanitarian mission, and said any interference from Iran would be met “forcefully.” He also said: “I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all.”
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Project Freedom? (War is Politics by Other Means) x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@adamscochran Is this the same proposal? Are you sure! You get timelines wrong.
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Once again, it is worth highlighting:
* Iran sent this proposal on Thursday.
* Trump already rejected it on Friday saying it was still “unacceptable”
* Al-Jazeera and others have been given the details of it all weekend from Pakistani sources creating confusion that it’s a “new” deal
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Al Jazeera publishes details of Iran's latest offer to the U.S., delivered through Pakistan. The proposal has three phases: Phase 1: Convert the ceasefire into a full end to the war within 30 days, across the entire region including Lebanon. Mutual commitments by Iran, the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian proxies not to attack each other. Iran would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and clear the mines it laid, accepting U.S. assistance. In return, the U.S. lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. An international body would be established to oversee compliance. Iran revised its demand for reparations in "new and sophisticated wording." The proposal also demands withdrawal of forces from Iran's maritime surroundings and an end to major force concentrations in the region. Phase 2: Freeze uranium enrichment for 15 years. After that, Iran resumes enrichment to 3.6% but commits not to stockpile enriched uranium. Iran rejects the U.S. demand to dismantle nuclear infrastructure or destroy facilities. Already-enriched uranium would be transferred to other countries or diluted to civilian levels. Sanctions lifted gradually on a clear timetable, including release of frozen Iranian assets worldwide. Phase 3: Iran enters strategic dialogue with Arab and regional states to build a region-wide security framework. Al Jazeera, citing the proposal delivered via Pakistan.
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They certainly were saying it won't work. MANY PEOPLE, including this guy, were reporting some of the ways the blockades had leaks as if that indicated the blockade wouldn't inflict much pain.
The question now is not whether Iran will comply to the US. The question is how long will it take for the strait to be opened...
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28
You're making things up entire Robin, and you know that. NOBODY was saying "the blockade won't work", people were and ARE saying "the blockade will not produce the necessary results unable to be achieved by kinetic strikes in a viable timeline". Completely strawmanning to not have egg on your face from a flawed proposition.
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@mi_ster_x @adamscochran It is, but safe corridors can be opened in the meantime.
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@adamscochran But I thought the strait was full of mines that would take 6 months to clear?
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"Talks are progressing well! ...But we're just going to go get ships out of the Strait unilaterally by force."
Yeah - if you think that helps us get closer to an Iran deal....
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