
221B Baker Street
373 posts


@thejefflutz Do they have meaningful, demonstrated demand?
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Congrats this is a BIG deal! A whole NEW SEGMENT for Tesla! Some said it could never happen! 👀
Tesla Semi@tesla_semi
First Semi off high volume line
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Yesterday, I spoke with the CEO of a mega fleet, who said most of his truckload business was doing well, except for one segment: food & beverage.
He called the lack of volume from this segment "unusual."
I told him we believed GLP-1s were causing a significant slowdown in food and beverage shipments, as we had just completed a market study on GLP-1's impact on freight shipments.
Our study, now published in a SONAR Sitrep, available online, estimates that 851k truckloads have been removed from the market due to GLP-1s, and this number could ramp to 1.95m by 2030.
Not only are Americans getting skinnier. Their truckloads are as well.

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@thejefflutz @hamids Backlog of what? Every car is available immediately.
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@hamids You missed the part about having the highest order backlog in company history exiting a quarter…
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Oh man. I just listened to the $TSLA call and it's very cringe-worthy. Tesla was up ~4% on what seemed like a beat before the call and after the call, the stock ended down.
Tomorrow might be even worse as people start to digest all the info. Energy business, which was supposed to be growing rapidly and make up for the car-business shortfall, is down y-o-y.
The Fremont factory conversion getting ready for Optimus, appears to be behind schedule based on Elon's comments.
They set expectations that CapEx growth is going to be massive going forward as Tesla continues to invest in AI and factories.
Slow Robotaxi rollout was initially blamed on regulators, then later Elon gave lots of examples of edge cases that he thought were so funny, but the issues need to be resolved before rollout. This is something that many people have been saying for a long time. Being "scared of crossing railroad tracks" is no joke!
Then the whole HW3 fiasco...Finally another admission that HW3 will never achieve FSD. So many people paid between $6K - $15K for HW3. The lawsuits around this are not going to be good.
Then there's the recurring New Roadster demo, which is perpetually a month away and always continues to be a month away! 🤣
With a PE of 214, you can't even say "but look at the future" because the forward PE is expected to be even worse at 248!
Ouch.
As someone who held $TSLA stock for ~9 years (2015 to 2024), I can't help wonder what people see in it today?

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@bcherny @ReadySetBrian Did you squeeze customers by putting what was standard effort on 4.6 into high effort on 4.7 to drive more revenue??
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@ReadySetBrian Hmm are you seeing this with Opus 4.7 on xhigh effort and the latest version of Claude Code?
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Canceled Claude max today, @bcherny whatever happened in the last 1-2 months is a significant regression.
The model feels like someone from OpenAI started working on trust and safety there. Opus thinking is significantly worse. Every statement is “here’s where I’d push back on that” and then proceeds to rattle off the most inane list of confused counter arguments.
It was perfect 3-4 months ago!!!
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@KobeissiLetter Importantly, the buyer number is not 0; the y-axis starts at 1.3 million.
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The housing market is running out of buyers:
There were an estimated 46.3% more home sellers than buyers in February 2026, the biggest difference since Redfin data began in 2013.
This gap has widened sharply from 29.8% a year ago, marking the strongest market for buyers in over a decade.
By comparison, there were a record 36.0% more buyers than sellers in November 2022.
This comes as the number of active homebuyers fell -2.4% MoM, to ~1.36 million, the lowest since at least 2013.
At the same time, the number of sellers declined -0.4% MoM to ~1.99 million, posting a smaller decrease than homebuyers.
Further home price cuts are likely coming.

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BMW X5 owner says he's selling his car to buy a 2026 @Tesla Model Y after driving an EV and FSD for the first time:
"Couple of months ago my friend got a Tesla Model Y 2026 and recently went overseas for 3 weeks, so he let me use it.
I had never driven an electric car before and always thought about range anxiety. But man, this was an eye opening experience. After about a week, I stopped worrying about range completely. I’d just come home, plug it in, and every morning it was fully charged.
After driving with FSD and one pedal driving, I can’t go back to my car anymore. My friend came back from his trip and took the car last Friday, and now I can’t stand driving my gas car. Everything feels obsolete and stupid, like I’m driving a 30 year old car with no tech. I actually get mad at it now, and it’s only been 3 days. I’ve never felt like this about my car before.
After 3 weeks, I went from “I love my car” to “this is old shit.” Looks like I can’t tolerate any other cars anymore.
I’m going to sell my X5 and get a Black Model Y Long Range."

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Big milestone as these are the first cities with unsupervised FSD outside of Austin.
Kind of surprising to see lateral expansion (new cities) before the robotaxi business increases in depth in the one city it is currently operating in (more robotaxis, bigger geofence).
But it makes sense bc this way Tesla can keep total number of cars on the road low, while continuing to improve the software while simultaneously expanding into new markets.
Tesla Robotaxi@robotaxi
Robotaxi now rolling out in Dallas & Houston 🤠
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@gotrice2024 Thankfully he filmed and posted it, so we know his priorities are in the right place.
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This man is taking his 4 kids out to eat at Chik-fil-a while trying to save money single dad style. He developed a hack he wanted to try and see if it worked.
The man orders a 30 piece nugget and 5 sandwich buns and 5 waters to drink.
The man brings Mio’s so that the waters would be more appetizing.
He takes a bun, puts on some of the sauce and 5 chicken nuggets, improvising a chicken sandwich for each of them with some nuggets to spare. Doing it this way with the cost of the Mio’s saved him about $11, would that be enough to make it worth it for you to try this hack or is this just to embarrassing to bother with?
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🚨BOLTON NOW SUPPORTS TRUMP🚨
"A BLOCKADE MAKES SENSE. YOU DON'T HAVE TO ATTACK KHARG ISLAND."
"I THINK THE CEASEFIRE WAS A MISTAKE."
NO IRANIAN OIL OUT. NO GULF ARAB OIL OUT.
"LET'S SEE HOW THEY FEEL ABOUT THAT IN TEHRAN."
TRUMP HAS BOLTON'S SUPPORT AN…Show more
Money Ape@TheMoneyApe
🚨BOLTON: TRUMP'S STRATEGY WRONG🚨 "IT IS A MISTAKE TO SEND THE VICE PRESIDENT." JD VANCE ARRIVED IN PAKISTAN FOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN IRAN PICKED THE LEVEL OF TALKS. AMERICA AGREED. TRUMP WANTS A WAY OUT AN…Show more
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@MaxAnderson Haaaaa so true and everyone tells me it’s the best thing in the world but for some reason the drive is not here and I don’t know why 😢
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Marc has it figured out here, with one exception:
Kids
They’re the single biggest lever to add more happiness to your life
The kids : happiness relationship is linear and uncapped
More kids = more happiness with no upper bound other than the boundaries enforced by time and money
As soon as you add kids to the equation, that $10k / mo threshold can quickly become $50k / mo or more
Beyond the direct costs, having kids changes your taste in unexpected ways
Before kids - the ideal, most fulfilling type of travel might look like:
- backpacking
- sweating it out in coach
- staying in cheap hostels
- booking a one way ticket and figuring it out when you get there
- packing light
Discomfort and spontaneity are what make the experience great
After kids - ideal travel can look more like:
- business class
- staying at a Four Seasons
- having a well-planned itinerary
- packing 2 of everything you might possibly need
Getting to see it through their eyes is the best part of the experience (and you just want all the other details to be convenience- and comfort-maxxed)
Just one example but the same dynamic shows up everywhere
Beyond the change in taste, after kids your time becomes incredibly scarce
Before kids:
- doing 0 –> 1 on repeat is awesome
- your work is your main identity
- novelty and variety matter a lot
After kids:
- being in the late stages of a compounding curve is awesome
- being dad is your main identity
- maxxing $ per unit of your work time is all that matters
Steep yourself in novelty and variety before kids
But don’t wait too long to have them, because kids are the best
The #1 and #2 deathbed regrets are not having more of them and having them too late
When you’re ready to have them, pick your one big thing to compound on and put all your work energy into that
Because as soon as your first kid is born, max $ per unit of your work time is all that matters
And nothing maximizes return on your time like going all in on one thing and compounding
Marc Lou@marclou
After $10K/mo, money has virtually no impact on your happiness. Worse, if your $50K/mo startup drops to $45K/mo, you're sad. So I optimize for happiness: - 0 → 1 - perfect sleep - 2 hrs gym per day - a lot of time with wifey
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@alex_avoigt Didn’t Elon say painfully slow then all at once? So far he was correct on the first part
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Tesla is quietly preparing something big, with more and more cities that are getting ready to introduce Robotaxis.
The question is whether Tesla will implement this gradually, city by city, or whether we'll see one big event where 10 or more than 20 cities launch Robotaxis simultaneously?
Greggertruck@greggertruck
We are ready for Tesla @Robotaxi here in Phoenix! Found about 60 Modey Y's this morning, with rear sprayers for unsurepervised.
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Why are people saying it's expensive to insure a Tesla?
I insure a Cybertruck and a Model Y. Two drivers, full coverage with towing and rental for just over $200 a month. People are always shocked when I tell them that. They expected it to be way more.
The insurance cost is one of the biggest myths holding people back from buying a Tesla.
How much do you pay to insure yours?

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@NateSilver538 You messed up my man; it happens, but need to own it, not deflect.
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It's not my data.
The source is Cluvio, which is linked to in the article. I'd link to it in this tweet, but ironically, that would kill engagement.
And I know that traffic is hard to count. Especially for a private company. But if you have more accurate data, then publish it.
Nikita Bier@nikitabier
@NateSilver538 Data isn’t accurate. Missing half the network.
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