Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️

JB Hunt set the tone for earnings describing how shippers are accepting a massive shift and calling it a "structural change" and unlike other capacity-led market changes. Hunt's team made the case that we should not expect this market to correct anytime soon, as the regulatory crackdown continues and trucker balance sheets have been wrecked by the worst downturn in history. This makes the case that a trucking super cycle is on the way!

‼️ 🚛 An out-of-service status means that a commercial motor vehicle or driver must immediately stop operating due to a serious safety violation or failure to comply with Department of Transportation (DOT) regulations. Depending on the severity of the violation, the condition may be temporary or permanent. Get to know more following the link: sgibinc.com/en/out-of-serv…

Freight Expectations x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@FreightAlley Yes, I just heard the same thing from a insurance guy even June 1 renewals

100% AI produced. I had Claude estimate how this might impact the profitability of a small brokerage. On first glance, the numbers seem reasonable. Comments? Corrections? Every owner-operator needs to read this. An insurance executive shared with me overnight: a broker's renewal quote was pulled and re-issued at 3.5x last week's price. Clean shop. Well-funded. $5M limit. Nothing else changed. That's a 250% increase in fixed cost, overnight, with zero change in operations. The Supreme Court ruled Thursday. The insurance industry priced it Friday. Let me show you what that means. On a mid-sized broker doing $30M in revenue and 25,000 loads a year, that's roughly $315K in new annual cost — about 30% of net income vaporized from a single line item. The per-load math converges across broker size: $10–$13 of new cost per load that has to come from somewhere. Three doors for the broker: — Raise shipper rates — Cut carrier pay (path of least resistance — and history says it's door #1) — Absorb it (only the deepest balance sheets can) Realistic outcome: blend, heavily weighted toward door #2. Owner-operators eat $8–$12/load of broker insurance cost they didn't cause. Stack the carrier-side increases coming behind it — your insurance, your underwriting scrutiny, your renewal — and you're looking at $20–$30/load of new friction before any other ruling effect lands. This is the part that should stop the celebration cold. The Supreme Court hasn't issued a single ruling under Montgomery yet. No lawsuits have been filed. No verdicts. No discovery. No trials. And the insurance industry has already voted with real dollars. 3.5x higher, on a clean shop with a $5M limit — issued before the ink on Justice Barrett's opinion was dry. That's how confident the market is about where this goes. If you're still cheering, you're not paying attention.

@BoatyDaBoat Of course. Check out FreightWaves on YouTube or your favorite podcast player

@FreightAlley Is there a recording. Will be on a plane without wifi. Fuck delta

Adamo, Leffler, and I will be on a special edition of Freight Expectations at 3PM ET today. It will be streamed on the FreightWaves X account to discuss the SCOTUS aftermath and its implications for brokers, carriers, shippers, and the market. Tune in!

No argument

@ddhacca It was 1% for a broker, now 3.5%. Assuming 12% net revenues (which is what really matters) that is 8% going to 28% of net revenues.

@FreightAlley What percent of revenue is insurance ? A meaningful amount or minor ?

Update from an insurance executive: A broker's insurance renewal quote got pulled overnight; new quote is 3.5x the given last week, nothing else is changing. Clean, well funded shop. $5m limit.

No good fam

@ArmchairAtty It's expensive to lose the case. It's going to be expensive to win the case too.

@GulledHothan @carrierwhisper1 The cave said no to reefer changes, as flatbeds get all of the love right now. Sorry, you will have to wait.

@carrierwhisper1 @FreightAlley Finally admitting the cave meetings are real. @carrierwhisper1 make sure they talk about reefer capacity it’s been the real conspiracy lately😂😂

The cabal carriers have a secret meeting in the cave at 0300 EST, please reach out to the fuller family for more info @FreightAlley

@SuffrageReform They believe that brokerage insurance rates will increase 8x, as liability underwriting looks similar to asset-carriers

I call bullshit. So brokers are going to pay premiums on parody with asset owners. Are asset owners is going to get a 50% discount? Is Insurance going to just collect double the premiums in pocket it? Are we all going to just collectively cripple the trucking industry to fund more retarded nuclear verdicts and bottom feeding personal injury lawyers?

TD after SCOTUS: "Well-capitalized, high-compliance asset players gain most. Large, compliant brokers could benefit as smaller non-compliant brokers exit." Predicts a massive squeeze on insurance for brokers, and believes brokers will pay similar rates to asset-carriers in the future. "Brokers receive a 90% premium discount on insurance relative to asset-carriers. This could shrink to 10%." A 9x surge in insurance costs would be devastating for most brokers.

Yikes. Assuming that insurance carriers price brokerage insurance like assets we could see 10x increase in insurance rates for brokers. Not sustainable.

Flatbed truckload rates continue to set new records almost every single day - up to $4.17/mile

Seasonally adjusted trucking spot rates are at the highest levels we've ever tracked on the weekly chart. ($3.27/mile)

Citi: "Largest brokers and carriers are best positioned to accumulate share." Asset-based carriers are the biggest winners. This will lift freight rates as shippers seek reliable partners with visibility into who is transporting their freight. Brokers will likely seek enhanced insurance to limit liability.

Truckload spot rates surge to $3.57/mile, approaching an all-time high of $3.68/mile, set in the NYE holiday of 2021/22. This is +$.47/mile from a week ago. Diesel is only $.01/mile higher than it was a week ago.