Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️

JB Hunt set the tone for earnings describing how shippers are accepting a massive shift and calling it a "structural change" and unlike other capacity-led market changes. Hunt's team made the case that we should not expect this market to correct anytime soon, as the regulatory crackdown continues and trucker balance sheets have been wrecked by the worst downturn in history. This makes the case that a trucking super cycle is on the way!

@GulledHothan @carrierwhisper1 The cave said no to reefer changes, as flatbeds get all of the love right now. Sorry, you will have to wait.

@carrierwhisper1 @FreightAlley Finally admitting the cave meetings are real. @carrierwhisper1 make sure they talk about reefer capacity it’s been the real conspiracy lately😂😂

The cabal carriers have a secret meeting in the cave at 0300 EST, please reach out to the fuller family for more info @FreightAlley

@SuffrageReform They believe that brokerage insurance rates will increase 8x, as liability underwriting looks similar to asset-carriers

I call bullshit. So brokers are going to pay premiums on parody with asset owners. Are asset owners is going to get a 50% discount? Is Insurance going to just collect double the premiums in pocket it? Are we all going to just collectively cripple the trucking industry to fund more retarded nuclear verdicts and bottom feeding personal injury lawyers?

TD after SCOTUS: "Well-capitalized, high-compliance asset players gain most. Large, compliant brokers could benefit as smaller non-compliant brokers exit." Predicts a massive squeeze on insurance for brokers, and believes brokers will pay similar rates to asset-carriers in the future. "Brokers receive a 90% premium discount on insurance relative to asset-carriers. This could shrink to 10%." A 9x surge in insurance costs would be devastating for most brokers.

Yikes. Assuming that insurance carriers price brokerage insurance like assets we could see 10x increase in insurance rates for brokers. Not sustainable.

Flatbed truckload rates continue to set new records almost every single day - up to $4.17/mile

Seasonally adjusted trucking spot rates are at the highest levels we've ever tracked on the weekly chart. ($3.27/mile)

Citi: "Largest brokers and carriers are best positioned to accumulate share." Asset-based carriers are the biggest winners. This will lift freight rates as shippers seek reliable partners with visibility into who is transporting their freight. Brokers will likely seek enhanced insurance to limit liability.

Truckload spot rates surge to $3.57/mile, approaching an all-time high of $3.68/mile, set in the NYE holiday of 2021/22. This is +$.47/mile from a week ago. Diesel is only $.01/mile higher than it was a week ago.

SONAR truckload rejections surge to a new cycle high to 15.44%. Capacity is as tight as it's been in years.

Of course I need to be on the road when SCOTUS drops Montgomery! There are a lot of opinions about the ruling, and I have some thoughts as a board my flight home. What you see here is an excerpt from concurrence by Justice Kavanaugh. He says, “[F4A] does not preempt state tort suits against brokers who negligently arrange truck transportation with an unsafe carrier.” Two big questions: what is negligent arrangement and what is an unsafe carrier? Let’s start with the second question first. What is an unsafe carrier? Is it a safety score with the FMCSA? Probably not. Why? Because 94% of carriers don’t have a safety score with the FMCSA. So what is it then? Practically speaking, an unsafe carrier is the one that is an accident. Put another way, we don’t know you’re unsafe until after the event. Ok. What is negligently arranging? It’s a duty to use reasonable care to select a motor carrier. Can you rely on government data alone? Obviously not. Is it using the myriad of vetting technologies like Highway or GenLogs? Is it getting trade references? We don’t know. Not yet anyway. We need more lawsuits to establish the standard. Is this a case big? Absolutely. SCOTUS doesn’t take cases unless they have profound implications to the country. We just don’t know yet how big the impact will be. But brokers are playing the same game with new rules. Time will tell.

🚨WHAT THE HELL?!!!! Divers doing a ROUTINE maintenance check at the Converse Reservoir dam in Mobile, AL... ...just found an underwater IED!!!! Apparently a grenade-type bomb was sitting submerged at the bottom of a dam that holds an entire city's DRINKING WATER. It took FIVE agencies: the FBI, ALEA, the Sheriff, Mobile PD, and a maritime render-safe team, to pull it out and detonate it. Someone put a BOMB in our water supply... WHERE IS THE NATIONAL COVERAGE?!!!

I don't have a brokerage. I don't have any brokerage partners I don't get one penny of revenue from brokers. I have spent the last 30 years helping O/Os and small carriers start and run successful businesses. This is bad news for small carriers.

🚨#BREAKING: Officials say an underwater explosive device has been discovered at a dam supplying drinking water to the entire city of Mobile, Alabama.

@gustoffur ? You are confusing my role as an analyst on the market

@FreightAlley Ok, so now that everyone involved is being held responsible for keeping the highways safe, you have a problem with that? I don’t understand.

Hot take from a senior exec at one of the largest firms in the space: Paper trails are going to be paramount for brokers going forward. It will be imperative for the broker to demonstrate that they did everything in their power to ensure that the carrier and driver were compliant. Load boards are a thing of the past. I’ve been skeptical about the value of Convoy for DAT, but they’ve just made the case. TFX as well.

@gustoffur Indeed

@FreightAlley Didn’t you write something a few weeks ago comparing the death toll from inadequately trained truck drivers to having a plane crash everyday in America? There needs to be changes made.

@GoDuckYourself Flatbeds are going to go on a generational run with data centers, energy, and defense. He needs to lock down the capacity or else risk having trucks not show up. This market tightness is going to exist for years.

@FreightAlley going deep sea fishing with major client tomorrow. Lots of flatbeds. I am honest and relationship first with them, what short piece of advice/information can give the transportation coordinator so he can take it back to corporate and make himself look good

@carrierwhisper1 Imagine what I could charge for that

In just the last few minutes, much has already been said about the Supreme Court 9-0 ruling against CH Robinson and truck brokers, in the case of Montgomery vs. Caribe Transport II. There is no doubt that this verdict will create massive disruption in the transportation industry. Yet amidst major change, we will see enormous opportunity. Who do you think are the best software providers for providing carrier safety, compliance, and vetting analytics? Options include Fleetworthy, Lytx, Motive, Samsara, SafetyCulture, Highway, Idelic (now Descartes) and many others. And what do you think would make these solutions better? freightwaves.com/news/breaking-…

@freadomtruck07 youtu.be/HfhbpMccaAY

@FreightAlley I'm guessing the live didn't happen? Never got a notification for it.

OMG, this is the most pivotal moment in trucking history since Deregulation. It could be an extinction event for 30-50% of all freight brokers. Matt Lefler and I will be on the air at 11AM ET to discuss. Live, streaming on X.

Leffler and I breakdown the biggest event to happen in trucking since Deregulation.