Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️

Despite concerns about diesel, conditions in trucking look quite good and truckers are enjoying the best environment in years.

First it was aero engines repurposed for data centers. WSJ now reporting that domestic battery capacity for EVs, including of Ford/GM, is also being repurposed for data centers with slowing EV sales. - LG producing battery cells for Tesla instead of EV batteries for GM - Ford investing $2B to repurpose EV manufacturing in Kentucky; Ford CEO - energy storage has a “short payback period” and that it can be used to “de-risk the core automotive business” - Samsung $1B deal with undisclosed company to use its Stellantis JV factory in Indiana - AESC retooling a factory in TN that made batteries for the Nissan Leaf - Repurposing requires change in chemistry from NMC for EVs to LFP for grid applications; change of shape more tricky - Volta Foundation annual report last month also called out 190 GWh of mfg capacity reallocated to LFP - Qualifying for tax credits not so straightforward given supply chain for materials is all from China As @TheStalwart said: "That which *can* be repurposed to serve the AI supply chain *will* be repurposed to serve the AI supply chain."

@FreightAlley When you see industrial mfrs order truckloads that have been small LTLs the past few years, it's a good sign. I'd be curious to learn how much war impacts this. My retail side (consumer staples) still feels slow. Highly qualified, English speaking Fb and vans bank on data ctrs.

@FreightAlley Just a little anecdotal thoughts on the market (nationwide) last minute reefer freight is a killer. Add 20% to what you quoted for lead time, still might be upside down. WAIT UNTIL JUNE, HELL MOTHERS DAY!!

@BttBig UPS upgraded their revenue forecasts for the year in January. They have been struggling with higher costs due to their union contract and a faster acceleration of Amazon business, but there was no macro weakness mentioned in their domestic volume forecasts.

@FreightAlley UPS lowered 1q guide big time. Where’s your victory lap on that?

FedEx upgraded their outlook today. I spoke with BloombergTV today about why no one should be surprised and how the freight market has been very robust for the past few months and should continue to be so.

@voteLabonte Transaction volumes are at the highest levels we've measured in years.

@FreightAlley Both? Lower volume + higher rates. The stagflation of freight

Choose your fighter. The bull or the bear?

I've been asked this by folks that follow the Cass Shipment Index. It has a larger portion of LTL than truckload freight that make up the index. In an industrial recovery, truckload will move first, LTL second. Shippers are consolidating their LTL shipments into truckloads. As truckload tightens, we will see LTL shipments increase. This will be the next stage of the freight market recovery.

The freight market turn around continues. It isn't just a compliance crackdown, volumes are also coming up.

There is a divergence happening in the market. Shippers are demanding that providers use their own trucks or their own freight networks, forbidding loads from being posted out to public load boards. Carriers that have direct shipper freight have an abundance of freight ops.

FedEx upgraded their forecast today. This affirms what we have been reporting for a few months - the freight economy is strengthening and the war isn't having a significant impact on the business.

Ever since the courts forced McSorley’s to start serving women in 1970, straight men have been trying to figure out how to build a bar no woman will ever set foot inside. And now it exists.

@wack700 Indeed

@FreightAlley Get ready, Craig. The trucking industry will be the first to feel it.

The end is near

@slashinvestor Import from Canada and Venezuela

@FreightAlley Oh isn’t that cute…. You truly believe that crude will stay that low in the US. Tell me, how do you expect to do that? You need to import the heavy stuff, and that of course you will get at your low prices right? afpm.org/newsroom/blog/…

*Brent going to $200-250 a barrel

"The largest shipping groups, including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have told customers they reserve the right to invoke a 19th-century rule to allow them to leave containers at the nearest available port at their client’s expense." as.ft.com/r/4aef04f9-e9d…

Capacity is tightening

King, literally

@RMSGarey Cass' index has a lag, plus it has a higher concentration of LTL than truckload. Truckload is strong and LTL is a laggard, but that is what you would expect on the front end of a freight market recovery.

@FreightAlley Quick question, the context of “demand at the highest levels in years” seems a bit misleading when I look at the longer timeframe shipments trend. What are folks missing with regard to the larger timeframe chart from Freight Alley versus the Cass Shipments Index?

It is not just capacity. Freight demand is at the highest levels in years. freightwaves.com/news/truckload…

📺 Watch @maybedanielleee expose the trucking industry on @TLisFearless She says: “Secretary Duffy & @FMCSA Chief Derek Barrs… they have done more for the trucking industry than anyone has maybe ever, definitely in decades.” Making Trucking Great Again 🇺🇸🚛 @TomiLahren