eigenfxn🛡️🪨

Everyone is asking: "Is Jane Street why Bitcoin isn't at $150k?" As expected, the answer is trickier than the question. But it's also more structurally unsettling than the conspiracy theory itself—and once you understand the actual mechanics, you won't be able to unsee them👇

Plasma team might be the most incompetent team I've observed in all my crypto years. XPL nuking day after day with zero attempt to stop the bleed and instill confidence back in the token. Price is down 80% and they're still commenting "trillions'" under posts..

If in fact tomorrow's White House digital asset event pans out to be yet another nothingburger (which is what I expect), it would not surprise me if that catalyzed a real 1-2 week capitulatory move in crypto. I question how long market participants will be able to hold out hope for empty strategic reserve promises and I struggle to see what good news is left to be revealed. I am of the belief that the market showed its hand quite definitively in the aftermath of the weekend Trump pump scam. To me, the market sent a loud and clear message as to just how many trapped all-time high buyers there are in the asset class that made for the swift rejection from the $95,000 area. Day by day I expect the top buyers who were hoping to sell above 105, then above 100 and now above 95 will likely continue moving down their acceptable exit prices as fear sets in. While I have seen mixed sentiment across the industry as to the Trump admin's fulfillment of promises to the industry, I think they have delivered 'bigly'. Taking BTC price from $65k to $109k, rapidly deregulating via a declawed SEC and paving the way for new legislation around important innovations like stablecoins. To me they have come through and then some. The strategic reserve was a silly idea for a debtor nation in the first place, largely pedaled by bagholders for personal enrichment. While I see many point to the new age we are now in and the generational opportunity for the industry, I am having a difficult time getting comfortable with who the next marginal buyer is at these prices. Governments are already in the boat as they had 3 months to front run Trump's inauguration, Saylor's pace of buying has meaningfully slowed and animal spirit driven retail investors have gotten decimated and are unlikely to return quickly given the broader economic deterioration. When I think of fat pitches, I recall end of 2022 or late summer 2023, not when everyone in the world is shouting from the rooftops.