Quinn Thompson

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Quinn Thompson

Quinn Thompson

@qthomp

CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance

Katılım Aralık 2018
1.6K Takip Edilen31.1K Takipçiler
Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Mag7 civil war. Sure reads like OpenAI has been caught red handed. The Ls keep stacking up for them ahead of their IPO. Every day that goes by with @SpaceX trading publicly makes @elonmusk look more and more like the winner in his battle against Altman.
Mickey from Arcadia@mickeyhardy

The 10 craziest parts of the ChatGPT lawsuit. Apple says: 1.) A former Apple engineer named Chang Liu quit Apple in January 2026 to join OpenAI, secretly kept his Apple-issued laptop instead of returning it, then discovered a bug that let him log back into Apple's private servers from his new desk at OpenAI. He didn't report the bug. He didn't log off. He texted a friend still working at Apple: "LOL, I found out I can access the [server], so funny." Then he spent weeks downloading over 1,000 pages of Apple's confidential engineering files while actively building competing hardware for OpenAI. 2.) Apple is suing OpenAI's Chief Hardware Officer a man named Tang Yew Tan who spent 24 years at Apple as VP of Product Design for iPhone and Apple Watch before leaving to co-found OpenAI's hardware division. Apple alleges that when Tan interviewed Apple employees for jobs at OpenAI, he told them to physically bring Apple hardware to the interview. Batteries. Circuit boards. Logic boards. Prototype parts. Actual physical components taken from Apple's facilities. One candidate was so caught off guard he said he "didn't even know we could take those from the office." 3.) Apple's lawsuit reveals that OpenAI was circulating a confidential internal Apple document, one marked "Need to Know," intended only for Apple's own managers, among new OpenAI hires. The document details Apple's security procedures for when an employee resigns. OpenAI was sharing it with recruits before they even told Apple they were leaving, so they knew exactly what checks to expect and how to avoid them. OpenAI employees referred to it as "a checklist that Tang put together" even though it was clearly an Apple internal document. 4.) Apple's investigation found that OpenAI was actively coaching Apple employees on how to handle their exit from Apple. The advice included: don't sign anything at your exit interview. And if Apple asks you to sign something, contact OpenAI immediately. OpenAI was running legal interference on Apple's own offboarding process in real time, from the inside. 5.) Tang Tan, the former Apple VP who is now OpenAI's Chief Hardware Officer, was reportedly warning Apple employees he was recruiting not to tell Apple they had accepted jobs at OpenAI. The strategy: stay at Apple as long as possible, keep your badge and system access active, and keep gathering information. Apple says it found a clear pattern of departing employees skipping exit interviews, ignoring security outreach, and taking steps to evade the procedures designed to protect Apple's confidential data. 6.) OpenAI's interview process for hardware candidates, many of them current Apple employees, required them to prepare a "Technical Deep Dive" presentation with slides about their work. The instructions asked candidates to disclose which vendors Apple uses, how Apple selects hardware components, what software tools Apple uses for system integration, and how Apple manages its supplier relationships. 7.) Apple's lawsuit alleges that OpenAI interviewers, former Apple insiders who knew the company's internal language, were using Apple's secret project code names during job interviews to ask candidates about unreleased Apple products. Apple documented at least one case where a candidate began screenshotting and downloading confidential Apple files in the hours before his OpenAI interview. During the interview, Tang Tan asked him about the exact same project. Apple says this has become an established pattern. 8.) Apple alleges that OpenAI, through its hardware subsidiary io Products, approached one of Apple's trusted industrial design partners and had them perform Apple's proprietary metal-finishing technique the multi-step process Apple developed over years to produce the distinctive look and feel of its products. OpenAI told the partner that Apple had given permission. Apple had given no such permission. The partner was bound by exclusivity agreements with Apple that explicitly prohibited doing this work for anyone else. 9.) The engineer who broke back into Apple's servers, Chang Liu wasn't acting alone. Apple's lawsuit alleges he was simultaneously coaching a current Apple employee named Alyssa Peng on how to copy files from Apple workstations without triggering the security team, directing her to specific confidential project folders, and using Apple's stolen data to help her prepare for her own OpenAI job interview. To keep all of this hidden, Liu told Peng to stop communicating over Apple devices and switch to a separate private messaging app called LINE. 10.) Apple's lawsuit frames this not as the actions of a few rogue employees, but as a deliberate institutional strategy. OpenAI now employs over 400 former Apple engineers and executives. Apple alleges that OpenAI built its entire hardware recruiting pipeline around extracting Apple's proprietary knowledge from manufacturing processes and supplier relationships to unreleased product designs and that as a result, OpenAI's nascent hardware business is, in Apple's words, "rotten to its core by its illegal reliance on misappropriated trade secrets."

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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
I don’t think it’s surprising the hikes haven’t had any effect because they’ve only done 100 bps over 2+ years with still drastically negative real rates due to inflation well above policy rate And similarly there’s been no staying power in intervention because no one thinks the BOJ is serious about normalizing monetary policy That said, I also don’t think there’s some elegant solution out for them - I don’t think they’re doing anything “wrong” because slow and steady debasement is probably the best path forward
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VKMacro
VKMacro@VKMacro·
I think many of the narratives re: JPY don’t make sense. Agree BoJ monpol is likely lose but then despite recent hikes it’s had 0 effect Intervention saw no bid for jpy at all. No sticking power, unlike 2022/ 24. Nikkei rally forcing jpy selling -maybe but not sure
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
The insider front-running of this week's Iran strikes was so prevalent it was widespread across all asset classes - stocks down, oil up, yields up. After two days of strikes you have stocks up, oil down, yields down. Now they are front-running the taco🌮.
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

Oil was +6% in before the public knew about the Iran strikes. Bonds and stocks were also sold. Obviously the market (insiders) knew and front ran it. Now the strikes are publicly known and as I type this Nasdaq is green. Not a coincidence. Probably also the top in yields here.

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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Oil was +6% in before the public knew about the Iran strikes. Bonds and stocks were also sold. Obviously the market (insiders) knew and front ran it. Now the strikes are publicly known and as I type this Nasdaq is green. Not a coincidence. Probably also the top in yields here.
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Trump and his team of vol controllers manipulating the market algos while netting billions in insider trading profits along the way. "The stock market is gonna go through the roof" *bombs Iran* "Would hate to strike electricity and desalination plants, but may have to" Next up: 🌮
GIF
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Further escalation from here would create a political catastrophe for Trump and the republicans at midterms. Trump is using some of his go-to talking points to manufacture market volatility before taco'ing: "WOULD HATE TO STRIKE DESALINATION PLANTS, BUT MAY HAVE TO" "WE MAY TAKE OVER KHARG ISLAND"
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

The first potential signs of another major Trump 🌮 His political capital amongst voters is "running on E" and he needs to divert attention away from the failed Iran War as his polling and rating numbers decline. He's already brought the largest aircraft carrier and strike group back home. Would not surprise me at all to see the "blockade" covertly stop being enforced and just quietly fall away. This is the same pattern as the tariffs. Notice how those have faded into the background while the effective tariff rate has fallen from 13% to 8%. This was another failed policy/rollout that he wants voters to forget about. As @jam_croissant likes to say, Trump embodies the opposite of "speak softly and carry a big stick". He speaks loudly and carries a little stick - that is the definition of TACO.

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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
We highlighted our key takeaways from the BIS annual report this week - AI capex risk, fiscal rot and hedge funds behind the US Treasury market plumbing. It's difficult not to see a world where further debasement is on the horizon.
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

x.com/i/article/2073…

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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Leveraged funds have added 367K new short positions into SOFR futures - the biggest weekly build in over 3 years. Despite this record short, prices have been effectively range bound for nearly six weeks. In this week's note we look further into that divergence.
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

x.com/i/article/2073…

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Quinn Thompson retweetledi
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance@ForwardGuidance·
"There's just no reason for the Fed to act in either direction right now" @qthomp argues the Fed has little reason to hike into weak job growth if low unemployment is being driven by low hiring and falling participation. That puts the reaction function back on inflation.
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Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance@ForwardGuidance·
ICYMI NEW POD We Cover: 🔸 AI momentum unwind 🔸 NFP & labor market cracks 🔸 What we’re trading 🔸 BTC sentiment reset 🔸 Is gold back & more! @qthomp @fejau_inc TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack 07:14 What Triggered The Selloff? 10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking? 12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive 14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report 18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky? 24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed? 27:54 How We're Trading This 32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning? 38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech 40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto 44:17 July 4th And The World Cup
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Quinn Thompson retweetledi
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance@ForwardGuidance·
NEW POD: The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking We Cover: 🔸 AI momentum unwind 🔸 NFP & labor market cracks 🔸 How we’re trading the transition 🔸 BTC sentiment reset 🔸 Is gold back & more! @qthomp @fejau_inc Links Below ↓
Forward Guidance tweet media
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