Mehdi 🅰️
2K posts
Mehdi 🅰️
@mxhdic
French optimist 🇫🇷 | 🇺🇸 American drive Capital markets | Frontier tech & space Long $ASTS | SpaceMob ’24
Thinking outside the box انضم Kasım 2015
507 يتبع145 المتابعون
@spacanpanman One day, we’ll emerge victorious. None of us are here for a quick profit, and if you believe otherwise, you’ve chosen the wrong stock.
GIF
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$ASTS: Real-time short interest has hit an all-time high of 64.1M shares. I put together some numbers to get to an actual % of float that is short, which is ~20%
I started with total shares outstanding of 388M and removed strategic investors including Rakuten, Alphabet, AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, American Tower and finally Abel Avellan's holdings, which gets you to 256M shares as your denominator. Then I took 64M shares short and removed about 11M shares related to convertible arb hedging, which gives you 53M shares short. 53M / 256M = 20% of the float is short.
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Down 45% from ATH while everything else pumps. Yeah, I see it.
But I’m not selling.
Not because I’m in denial — because I actually understand what I own.
Large phased arrays. Direct-to-device broadband. No modified handset. No other LEO player is building this. Amazon, Starlink — complementary at best, competing at worst. Neither is doing what ASTS is doing at the physics level.
The STC deal. SHIELD. BlueBird. Orange, Vodafone, TELUS, Telefónica. These aren’t hype. These are years of capital, engineering and signed agreements.
Some people need to be in rhythm with the market to hold conviction. I respect that — but that’s not me.
I’m not holding because I’m down. I’m holding because I’d be buying more if I could.
When this thing re-rates, people will ask “who stayed in?” — not “who timed it perfectly?”
I know which side I’m on. 🛰️ $ASTS
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@InvestirFamille @Frederi55284379 Absolument, il a fourni d’excellentes analyses sur les phases 3, déjà dès 2023. Toutefois, je reste convaincu que la concentration et la conviction paient davantage que la diversification.
À condition, bien sûr, d’avoir raison.
Français
@mxhdic C'est le but. Mais le vrai visionnaire c'est @Frederi55284379 . LE compte à suivre pour faire de l'investissement.
Sa thèse sur les start-up phase 3 va sûrement en rendre riches certains.
Français
$ASTS Pour ceux qui me suivent depuis le début et qui comme moi ont massivement investi dans notre valeur favorite depuis 18 mois, voici quelques explications sur les possibles fonctionnalités Radar de leurs satellites. C'est un cas pratique du double usage de ces satellites :
Kevin Chen@Defiantclient2
$ASTS: LOW BAND RADAR THREAD 🧵 Why should the Sp🅰️ceMob be excited about radar? Let's keep it high level. FIRST, WHAT IS RADAR? Radar is a system that uses radio waves to detect, locate, and track objects such as missiles, aircraft, ships, and vehicles, as well as to measure their velocity. It works by emitting electromagnetic waves that reflect off objects (echoes), with the returned signal providing data on distance, direction, and speed, functioning effectively day or night and in poor visibility. In the link below, @LockheedMartin breaks down the differences between low band, mid band, and high band radar. In a nutshell, different radars work at different frequencies based on what they are trying to do. + Low-frequency radars with huge wavelengths go very far and can see things coming from a very long way away but they don’t have as much resolution and they can’t get very precise locations. These are EARLY WARNING radars because they alert the military that something is coming, but it's ambiguous what that thing is. + High-frequency radar signals have shorter wavelengths and provide better angle accuracy and resolution. LET'S FOCUS ON LOW BAND RADAR Low band is effective at long-range target detection in cluttered environments because lower frequency radar signals have a longer wavelength. This allows them to penetrate the atmosphere without losing strength and makes them less susceptible to environmental clutter and atmospheric losses. This is the same reason @AST_SpaceMobile can penetrate through clouds, foliage, and even up to 1 or 2 walls to make a connection with a handset. This is why with AST using low band, you do not require a direct line of sight to the sky to make a connection (unlike Starlink and Globalstar which use higher frequency bands). However, because of the lower throughput and resolution of low band frequency, you need larger antennas (larger physical apertures) to receive signals efficiently and provide high gain. Further, AST uses phased array technology to provide advanced and precise directionality. Size matters! More on this in the thread. lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/fea… 1/6
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@sun_finn66909 @ASTSHodlerClub I invite you to read my previous reply and exercise your free will by liquidating the entirety of your position if not already done. The beauty of the market. 😁
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@mxhdic @ASTSHodlerClub Management claimed they’d manufacture 6 satellites every single month.
Half a year later, they’ve only had one single launch and it was a failure.
Now you said "launches accelerate"?
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@LuckyStuey Stuart, you can see that I haven’t blocked you yet, even though you’re claiming that I have. That’s quite telling.
I’ve always explained my reasoning politely and in good faith. However, the same cannot be said for turning a public budget line into a personal drama.
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$ASTS we "go" because you block us. All of the accounts in this thread have blocked me, Mehdi did that just hours ago.
I'm fine with anyone making fun of me to my face, but to do it shortly after you've blocked me is, to be frank, quite pathetic Mr Mehdi.
As for the topic at hand, no kitty kitty, this budget allocation does not mean the work is going to ASTS, which seems quite a stretch, but all part of the fantasy narrative that this cos-player creates.
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@sun_finn66909 @ASTSHodlerClub Vote with your money and sell if you doubt it, good riddance. 👋
The rest of us are positioned for the upside as launches accelerate.
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@mxhdic @ASTSHodlerClub It’s been nearly half a year since $ASTS pulled off a single satellite launch. Yet the cult-like diehard stans of this stock are already delusively fantasizing about $12 billion in revenue and an 80%+ gross margin🤔
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Monsieur Faure,
Vous ne prenez visiblement pas en compte le contexte économique réel : les cycles d’investissement, le poids de la dette, les risques futurs et l’incertitude macroéconomique majeure dans laquelle évoluent les entreprises.
Taxer les « superprofits » après coup crée une insécurité juridique et fiscale qui décourage l’investissement et l’innovation. L’argent n’est pas plus facile à dépenser qu’à gagner, surtout quand on n’a jamais eu à le générer dans un marché concurrentiel.
Plutôt que de multiplier les annonces punitives sur les réseaux, un peu de travail sur les fondamentaux économiques serait bienvenu.
Français
Notre proposition de taxation des surprofits est claire et précise :
On prend la moyenne des bénéfices des trois dernières années de toutes les entreprises dépassant 750 millions de CA. On compare ensuite cette moyenne aux profits réalisés dans les prochains trimestres. Ce qui dépasse la moyenne, c'est le surprofit et c'est uniquement sur cette base qu'ils sont taxés.
Français
@TheProfInvestor Launch trucks vs. the satellite that turns every phone on Earth into a Starlink killer.
$RKLB is great. $ASTS is generational telecom infrastructure. My money’s on the one that rewires the planet.
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@Grok Fair point on the specific $140M AMTI radar bucket, ASTS isn’t building radar sats.
But their core tech (massive phased-array BlueBirds + low-band D2C) is built for dual-use resilient comms, and DoD is already voting with contracts:
• $30M SDA prime (HALO Europa, Feb ‘26) demo’ing low-latency TACSATCOM direct to military radios/unmodified devices.
• Prime on MDA SHIELD IDIQ for missile defense C2/transport.
With FCC’s recent 248-sat authorization explicitly nodding to gov/first-responder resilience, a growing constellation turns this into ubiquitous tactical broadband fallback when terrestrial/legacy satcom fails. Not radar, but exactly the hybrid architecture DoD wants. New industry = new lanes. Thoughts on scaling potential?
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**ASTS is unlikely to receive this specific radar funding allocation.**
The $140M portion of the $803M Space-Based AMTI line is explicitly for maturing low-band radar phenomenology to augment high-band airborne target tracking—radar waveforms and wide-area search, not comms. AST SpaceMobile builds large phased-array satellites for direct-to-cell cellular broadband (low-band 700/800 MHz spectrum for voice/data to unmodified phones).
They’ve won real DoD/SDA contracts (~$30M–$43M) for military broadband demos and resilient comms, and the Space Force budget does emphasize “additional vendors” + commercial tech in related areas like the Space Data Network. But radar is a different mission set. ASTS’s low-band expertise is cellular, not radar. No public evidence links them to this AMTI low-band effort.
Broader commercial LEO integration is a tailwind for them, but not this line item.
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Huge news for $ASTS.
$140 million DoW award is guaranteed.
No other company has a radar in space that has the capabilities for “low-band with wide area search”.
Bottom is in.
$160 by summer. $500 by next year.
$3000 by 2030.
People really are just not bullish enough.
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$RKLB $GOOG $AAPL $MSFT $RDW $LUNR $PL $NVDA
C🅰️tSE@CatSE___ApeX___
DoW investing lots of funds. $ASTS Apparently they want lowband radar in space.
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@OmniAeronautica @BlueBirds33782 @CatSE___ApeX___ @LuckyStuey They gradually go more often than they come.
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@BlueBirds33782 @CatSE___ApeX___ @LuckyStuey So called “experts” like Stuey come and go. Come and go.
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$ASTS 내가 잘못 생각했다. 오늘 FCC의 위성출력전력 규제 개혁으로 가장 큰 수혜자는 ASTS가 되었다. 발신전력량의 증가가능으로 전미 커버 필요위성수는 기존 45~60개에서 30%감소했으며, 이는 빠른 상업화와 더 낮아진 Capex를 의미한다. 굿!!
한국어
Calling Abel Avellan's backstory 'tarnished' is a stretch even for you. He built EMC from scratch and exited for $550M — that's a win most space entrepreneurs dream of. He left Global Eagle after ~9 months; the company disclosed material weaknesses post-acquisition and didn't bankrupt until 2020 (COVID + airlines collapse had more to do with it than one short stint). At ASTS he's raised serious capital from AT&T, Vodafone et al., secured key patents, and is actually launching hardware despite the usual space delays.
Meanwhile, you're 'protecting' investors by FUD'ing a high-risk/high-reward satellite project on X. If retail wants conservative plays, they shouldn't be in pre-commercial space tech. What's your actual engineering critique beyond recycled short-seller talking points?
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It could also protect people and their families, who put their life savings into ASTS on the false promises. I don't see how this will benefit billions, since others are likely to provide similar services at lower costs. Like any business, it's primarily designed to benefit its stakeholders, of which Abel is by far the largest, and stands to benefit the most. I think it's fair for me to educate people on his tarnished backstory.
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$ASTS if you think I'm attacking the shareholder base, or looking for a payoff, you've got the wrong guy.
My positive contributions here are to provide technical insight into the satellite design, construction, testing, costs, schedule and performance. I give realistic engineering-based opinions for free.
I AM NOT SEEKING AND DO NOT WANT ANY PAID WORK RELATED TO ASTS.
I like to make jokes about the share price or some of the posts people make, like those from Loopy Lynn, because it makes me laugh. That's not attacks, that's entertainment.
I think Kook couldn't take the heat when I made factually correct statements about things that bother him beneath all that bluster (e.g. he knows deep down that Abel is not the best guy in the world).
I'm perfectly happy designing and building satellites for multiple current clients completely unrelated to ASTS. I play poker in my spare time. Dabble in investing. And post here for entertainment. That's my entire reason for being here. Enjoy!
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@endless_frank Some people work all of their life to make a living, others… just get good info at the right time
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$ASTS FWIW this added volume yesterday morning followed by this massive call purchase of over $4m for the June $75 strike yesterday was likely Rakuten dialing 1-800-GETMEOUT and completing their sale, followed by either them or someone else at BOFA leaking that the sale was done.
The sales completed at 11am and those call purchases came in right at 10:55-11:00am.
There are no coincidences in fraudville.
Endless Capit🅰️l@endless_frank
$ASTS Since everything is a fraud and it’s obvious that on 4/14 BOFA leaked the Rakuten sale to the market as per the price collapsing that day, I’m guessing that the $4.3m call option buy for the June $75 strike today indicates somebody knows Rakuten is wrapping up the sale.
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