Bitcoin Apparent Demand 30-day change from Oct 2025 to mid-March 2026
This metric tracks real spot demand by showing how well buyers absorb new supply. Green bars mean organic buying pressure. Red bars mean sellers are in control.
The strong green waves early on helped drive the push into the $126k all-time high. Then it flipped sharply negative in December and stayed deep red through the full 45% drawdown.
The small green blips in early March lined up with the relief bounces toward $73k, but they never held.
That persistent negative read is a big reason price continues to drift around $70k with limited upside momentum. Spot demand has not shown sustained absorption.
The signal I am watching now is a sustained move back into positive territory with size. If the green bars start holding and forming higher lows, that would be one of the earliest signs this phase is starting to shift.
What does this Bitcoin market feel like to you right now?
Are we quietly building a base at these levels, setting up for more sideways frustration, or does it point to something else entirely?
@notanotherquant Hey that’s fair enough, I’m more concerned about how it would react to the S&P dumping 10% or the private credit situation spiraling out of control publicly
@TheBTCKnight I also got in with Solana at that price thankfully.
All these years later I am still made at how I tried to yolo Luna 😂.
Least I was also buying Bitcoin.
@notanotherquant Prob hang around in between this 60-80k altho if broader stock market contiunes this downtrend it may pull it lower. Having said that.... I'll DCA every couple months
@DiaTSLAPLTR Think it really depends on this energy situation and the geopolitics. If inflation starts getting baked in then forget about it.
It’s just a lot of uncertainty for the Fed right now. Supply shock is difficult to deal with.
Even the growth we need to watch.
The Fed just told you everything you need to know and most people missed it.
Wednesday the dot plot shifted to just one cut for all of 2026. Powell called the economy "solid" while payrolls are at zero growth and inflation is running above target. He refused to address the Iran war directly. Read between those lines.
The Fed is telling you they will not rescue this market. They see oil above $107 and know that cutting rates into an energy shock would pour gasoline on inflation. That is the same mistake Arthur Burns made in 1973 when he cut rates during the OPEC embargo and gave us a decade of stagflation.
Meanwhile the S&P just broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Dow is pacing for its worst month since 2022. JP Morgan is already pushing back on the Fed's forecast saying conditions are worse than Powell admits.
Here is what I am watching. If Brent stays above $100 for another 30 days, the April inflation print will come in hot and kill any remaining hope for a June cut. At that point the market has to reprice for zero cuts in 2026. That repricing has barely started.
The opportunity is not today. The opportunity comes when the market prices in the worst case and then the data surprises to the upside. Netanyahu said yesterday the war will end faster than people think. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil drops back below $90, everything changes. Until then, patience is the trade.
What is your read on whether we get any cuts this year?
2-year yields spiking to 3.93% in a single day tells you everything.
The market is no longer pricing in rate cuts.
It’s starting to price in hikes.
And when that happens, cash becomes the most attractive asset in the room.
Why take risk in Gold, Equities or Bitcoin when short-term Treasuries pay nearly 4%?
That’s the sell-off you’re seeing today.
Btw Bitcoin and crypto are taking a hit too, but holding up relatively well compared to other asset classes.