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Paulo André
8.7K posts
Paulo André
@prla
Building Steady: the next-gen endurance cycling coaching platform.
Berlin, Germany انضم Mart 2009
498 يتبع2.2K المتابعون
@afonso_axe E dia 9 de abril, se as teorias se confirmarem, vai ser ainda melhor!
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Estamos a assistir a coisas que eu nunca pensei ser possível assistir num estado de direito (lmao) em 2026, com todo o acesso a informação que há.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Is this the best timed trade of 2026? At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought. This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute. Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced "productive discussions" with Iran were underway. By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added +$2 TRILLION in market cap. That $1.5 billion position gained +$60 million in minutes. Absolutely incredible.
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@svpino been vibecoding for two years. the only way it doesn't turn into slop is if you spend most of your time on system design and just let the agent type. you still have to engineer.
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Every large company will eventually ban vibe-coding.
Vibe-coding is now generating as much technical debt as 10 regular developers in half the time.
Vibe-coding is awesome for a first draft, but you can't expect to push AI slop to production and not destroy your software over time.
Producing code is no longer a bottleneck.
Testing that code, debugging it, monitoring it in production, and fixing it when it breaks is where everyone is spending their time.
We've 10x'd the speed of writing code, but we are still in the Stone Age with everything that happens after the code is written.
Here is a very cool tool tackling this:
You can build "AI Production Engineers" using PlayerZero and make them work for you.
These are agents that do this:
• Simulate how your code will work in production
• Diagnose issues when they happen
• Learn from every incident so it doesn't happen again
This is pretty awesome!
These agents simulate code behavior against real production data. They use actual customer behavior, historical incidents, and edge cases without writing a single test script.
When something breaks, the agent traces the issue to the exact line of code and PR, generates the fix, and routes it to the right engineer.
And every bug these agents solve serves as training data to improve the system.
Here is a link to check them out:
playerzero.ai/?utm_campaign=…
Thanks to the Player Zero team for partnering with me on this post.
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@KobeissiLetter And are these guys just flying there to help with "the talks"?
x.com/TheIntelFrog/s…
TheIntelFrog@TheIntelFrog
A significant movement is underway from US Army, Navy and Air Force bases in CONUS to the Middle East comprised of at least 35 C-17 flights since March 12th, with 11 more flights on the way. Origins: 12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA 8-Unknown 7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA 6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC 4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY 4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA 4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA 1-MacDill AFB, FL 1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ Destinations: 17-Ovda Air Base, Israel 13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan 4-King Hussein Int'l Airport, Jordan
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We firmly believe there are ongoing US-Iran "peace deal" talks right now:
Why? Because we have seen this EXACT sequence of events MULTIPLE times in previous deals negotiated by President Trump.
In fact, the May 2025 China trade deal followed the exact same timeline.
On April 24th, 2025, just 15 days after the "90-day tariff pause," which also came as the 10Y Note Yield soared above 4.45%, President Trump made similar claims about China, and China responded like Iran just did.
Trump said China was interested in a "trade deal" with the US, and China responded stating that "there are absolutely no negotiations between the US and China."
Just 3 weeks later, on May 12th, 2025, the US and China announced their first trade deal, reducing tariffs to a 30% baseline.
We believe a similar situation is happening right now with Iran, behind closed doors.
As Iran's war strategy has become to play the “long game” and pressure the US/Israel through capital and energy markets, Iran does not want to lose leverage and allow markets to normalize until a definitive deal has been solidified.
This is the same exact form of leverage that China had in April 2025 negotiations, which they initially denied, as the 10Y Note Yield broke above 4.50% and US equity markets collapsed.
We believe Trump is following the same playbook now.
That said, volatility will persist until there is a clear agreement in place, and broader market normalization after this historic shock will take months.
Pattern-based trading has become incredibly profitable over the last 12 months, and we continue to update our models as a result. Bookmark this post.
Keep following the patterns.
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I usually don't post about geopolitical current affairs, as I'm no expert.
But when you zoom out, the evidence is now in plain sight. Wow.
Åsa-Nietzsche@existentiellt
@adamscochran Manipulating the market
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Balaji is a bright guy but he fled the USA and has set his mind totally against our future success.
He lives in a world where US is losing and China is winning. This is his fixation. It’s dangerous, and it’s wrong. And this war has embarrassed China, destroyed their 100 cargo planes of war materials and their military ally, and frustrates them.
It’s fair to disagree about the attack. But saying that its architects are guilty of any downside is childlike nonsense. They should be proud of their work and their courage to take on this evil.
If you’re against the war, do you get credit for the last two decades of literal mass torture and mass rape and repression by this regime, and its terror funding and death around the region? Do you get credit for “supporting” the billions it spends on social media bots and information operations to polarize the US against ourselves, and weaken the west? Do you also get credit for what would have been the next twenty years of that?
Are you, Balaji, responsible for that side of it? No?
But if you are for it, you get zero credit for fixing any of that, but blamed for ALL the possible downsides? Total BS.
The mullahs holding the region hostage shouldn’t get your help to blame others for the damage they do.
Geopolitics and war is complex and there are risks on all sides. There is risk in acting, and in not acting.
I’m really glad we are taking advantage of the massive innovation and competence gap that exists at this moment, and finally eliminating so much evil.
I hope for freedom for the Iranian people and know that the situation is hard and complex, but either way it is good to stop the bad guys and eliminate so many of the worst groups, who have done so much damage, from history. Nobody should get away with what those bastards did for so long; this was long overdue.
Balaji@balajis
I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…
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@ribeiro__2022 @al_antdp Meu caro, palhaço é a sua tia. Os ataques ad hominem são excusados e só demonstram falta de personalidade.
Quanto ao tema: cultive-se. Nem tudo o que vai contra o seu viés do mundo são teorias da conspiração.
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Typical conspiratorial mindset: no one has agency except those this clown thinks control the world. Different people have different opinions but the responsibility for decisions taken are with those who took them. This war is happening because Trump and his team so decided. And not only are these countries telling him to keep striking until Iran is neutralized they also lobbied the WH to strike after the January protests.
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The economic consequences of the current war between the US-Israel coalition and Iran’s mullah regime are increasingly worrying.
A sustained disruption to Gulf oil infrastructure lasting through Easter 2026, with a six-month recovery timeline, would represent one of the most significant energy supply shocks to the European economy since the 1970s. The inflationary consequences would be substantial, multifaceted, and unevenly distributed across the eurozone. 1/n
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@al_antdp @ribeiro__2022 What the Gulf countries & Trump want is borderline irrelevant. He was instrumentalized to start this war, and the Gulf countries are hapless puppets.
Regardless of Iran's religion and politics, the fact is the US messed with the wrong people this time. The price will be steep.
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@TheCradleMedia I wonder if these people realize their double standards. How can someone be arguing for diplomacy while at the same time being a proponent of fighting to the last Ukranian?
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Kallas urges diplomacy to keep Strait of Hormuz open
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European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday that diplomatic solutions must be pursued to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open, while US President Donald Trump urges allies to deploy warships to safeguard passage during the conflict in Iran.
"Nobody is ready to put their people in harm's way in the Strait of Hormuz. We have to find diplomatic ways to keep this open so that we don't have a food crisis, fertilizers crisis, energy crisis as well," Kallas said in an interview with Reuters.
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@balajis None of this is mutually exclusive with "this being the one".
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@balajis "The analytical structure is unfalsifiable: if the event doesn't trigger collapse, the next one will. That's not forecasting, it's eschatology with charts."
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If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras.
1991-2026: the unipolar era
1974-2026: the petrodollar era
1945-2026: the postwar era
1776-2026: the union era
1492-2026: the Western era
Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991) and the postwar order (1945). It would mark the moment when Eurasian powers were once again dominant over Western powers (1492). Finally, a rapid crash in the dollar's purchasing power coupled with military defeat could well break apart the American union (1776).
Few seem to viscerally understand just how dependent America is on money printing. But the end of the petrodollar is the end of Keynesianism as we know it.
And if there's a sudden cost-of-living spike on top of pre-existing levels of political polarization, which are already near Civil War levels...we could see the scenarios that Dalio, the Fourth Turning, and Turchin have described.
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Paulo André أُعيد تغريده
Paulo André أُعيد تغريده
Paulo André أُعيد تغريده
@froogi @avrldotdev @naval Limit your inputs: one curated news summary per day (I can help filter).
Mornings for creation only—no feeds, no alerts.
Replace scrolling with deep work or real conversations.
Over weeks, the overload fades and focus returns. Small boundaries compound fast.
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Paulo André أُعيد تغريده
@AtlasisZephyr @trajektoriePL He said “MY singularity has just happened” not THE singularity
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@trajektoriePL a top mathematician saying "the singularity just happened" hits different than tech bros saying it every 3 months. when the domain experts start panicking, pay attention
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This is huge. Bartosz Naskręcki is a top-tier mathematician. He just said his "personal Move 37" happened. GPT 5.4 just solved a task he has curated for 20 years. When an expert of this caliber says "the singularity has just happened," we are officially in a new era of science.
Bartosz Naskręcki@nasqret
It finally happened-my personal move 37 or more. I am deeply impressed. The solution is very nice, clean, and feels almost human. While testing new models in the last few weeks, I felt this coming, but it's an eerie feeling to see an algorithm solve a task one has curated for about 20 years. But at least I have gained a tool that understands my idea on par with the top experts in the field. And I am now working on a completely new level. My singularity has just happened… and there is life on the other side, off to infinity!
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@johnrushx Obviously, by definition, "coders" would do the worst. They're existentially threatened by AI.
Software Engineers? Different story.
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I watch designers, marketers, entrepreneurs & coders vibe-coding, and the coders do the worst, while entrepreneurs do the best.
From what I see, the coders are stubbornly arguing with AI, while entrepreneurs are teaming up with AI.
Entrepreneur+AI seems like a deadly force.
Naval@naval
It’s not about junior vs senior, it’s about “good with AI” vs “not good with AI.”
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