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RayC

@ray_crypto

Researcher @ark_stream Crypto: Dev, Trader, Dao Tweet, Retweet, Like != FA

انضم Kasım 2017
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Ye Su
Ye Su@allen_su1024·
要币安缩短 1+3 锁仓,是个办法。 但这只能解决果,解决不了因。 做 crypto 一级8 年了,我深度反思过: 行业要恢复创新,核心要三件事。 1)从 to narrative 回到 to product crypto 17 年,真正跑通的产品基本只有金融:交易所、DEX、借贷、预测市场。 其余大部分还是 to narrative。 To叙事项目的核心价值是给行业引流。商业落地那天就是价格开始暴跌的开始。 从 2024 ETF + Trump 之后,引流已经没有价值了,to narrative周期已经接近尾声。接下来还是得回到收入、利润、现金流。 2)定价跌10x回归常识 很多项目不是没人投,而是根本不值得投。 币安alpha 30 万美金搓出来的流水盘项目,种子轮 3000 万美金,开盘 FDV 1-2 亿美金。 啥概念?GoPro 现在整个公司市值也就 1.2 亿美金。 从我17年入行第一天就发现crypto所有资产都10x以上高估,因为crypto是个与外界地流通的native行业,这是吃了to narrative时代的红利。 现在周期过了,归回常识是第一步。如果全行业先跌 10 倍,alpha开盘1000-2000w美金,很多项目反而才第一次有投资价值。 3)监管,还是监管 crypto的草莽时代在24年划上句号。 没有监管,不会更自由,只会让作恶更便宜。 币安 10.11 事件,项目方开盘老鼠仓砸盘,MM 操纵市场。这些事放在传统金融,都牢底坐穿。 结果就是劣币驱逐良币,最后买单的是 VC ,也是散户。 不过,这3个问题,要花多少年解决呢?
JackYi@Jackyi_ld

加密行业这几年最大的问题创新衰退了,这个问题根源来自两方面,一是美国上一届政府加密政策收紧,随着这次加密结构法案通过应该能解决。二是币安要求项目对加密VC的1➕3年锁仓机制,相信币安初心是好意,培养长期投资思维。现在这个机制后果是让项目方,做市商,交易所Liquidity先跑,而VC在漫长的解锁中归零。VC本来承担了一级市场最大的风险,却还要承担最晚退出风险,明显和传统投资市场向背,这样的后果是加密VC集体消亡,优质创业者很难融资,行业创新减少,@cz_binance 给CZ一个建议,给加密VC一个更好的退出机制,激活VC资本活跃起来,才能有利于行业创新,也更加有利于交易所上线优质资产。

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Omer Goldberg
Omer Goldberg@omeragoldberg·
Stream’s First Casualty: deUSD 1/ After Stream disclosed a $93M loss in user funds, Elixir’s deUSD and sdeUSD collapse became inevitable. Elixir was key in Stream’s recursive xUSD minting loop and held $68M in USDC exposure to Stream, representing about 65% of deUSD’s backing.
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YAM 🌱
YAM 🌱@yieldsandmore·
This is a massive loss. It's unclear how this will be settled in between xUSD/xBTC/xETH holders and lenders against these tokens, so let’s go over all stablecoins/vaults that have (in)direct exposure to Stream. Best we can tell, these stablecoins have indirect exposure: Elixir’s deUSD: Elixir is lending 68m USDC to Stream: debank.com/profile/0xaf8d… This represents 65% of deUSD backing. The main stream wallet is borrowing these funds against xUSD collateral. Elixir claims: “Elixir has full redemption rights at $1 with Stream for its lending position. We are the only creditor with these 1-1 rights.”. Stream team said: “ They have a contract. We told them explicitly that we cannot pay them out until lawyers determine who is owed what.“ Nevertheless, it’s rational to be careful before this debt is actually repaid. Treeve’s scUSD: eliteRingsScUSD is backed by veUSD. veUSD is backed by locked stkscUSD. stkscUSD is backed by staked scUSD that specific scUSD is rehypothecated to Mithras. Mithras scUSD (about 92% = 13m) is currently borrowed by xUSD collateral on Silo & Euler. This is not an extensive list, there likely are more stables/vaults affected, and the information presented here is not guaranteed to be accurate. Overall debt to lenders on various lending markets: $284.96M.* *Not counting indirect exposure through deUSD and other loops, this is a sum of all debt against Stream assets, debt owned both by Stream and by regular users. Totals by Curator: TelosC: 123.64M Elixir (kinda?): 68M MEV Capital: 25.42M Varlamore: 19.17M Re7: 14.26M Enclabs: 2.56 M Mithras: 2.3M TiD: 0.38M Invariant Group: 0.072M Here is a list of all markets that lend to xUSD/xBTC/xETH directly, their current exposure, and the curators which allocated money into there markets: EULER: Ethereum: TelosC Stream - only includes Stream assets - 1623.5 ETH ($5.89M), $14.31M USDC, 87.09 BTC ($9.65M) borrowed = $29.85M overall - Curator: TelosC app.euler.finance/market/telosc-… Plasma: TelosC Stream - $90M USDT, $2.89M plUSD, 900k msUSD - Curator: TelosC app.euler.finance/market/telosc-… Plasma: Re7 Labs xUSD - $14.26M USDT - Curator: Re7 app.euler.finance/market/re7labs… Sonic: MEV Capital Cluster - Hard to tell exact exposure, but the vault has $7M scUSD, $3.5M USDC, $2.7M scETH - 9.87M xUSD and 500 xETH deposited. - Curator: MEV Capital app.euler.finance/market/mev-cap… SILO: Ethereum: xUSD/USDC market - $1.2M USDC borrowed - Curators: Varlamore ($850k) app.silo.finance/markets/ethere… Arbitrum: xUSD/USDC market - $15M USDC borrowed - Curators: Varlamore ($14.2M), TID ($346k) app.silo.finance/markets/arbitr… Avalanche: xUSD/USDC, xUSD/USDT, xUSD/AUSD - $1.9M USDT, $816k AUSD, $9.3M USDC borrowed = $12.01M overall - Curators: MEV Capital ($7.2M), Varlamore ($2.5M), TiD ($28.5k) app.silo.finance/markets/avalan… app.silo.finance/markets/avalan… app.silo.finance/markets/avalan… Avalanche: xBTC/BTC - 272 BTC ($29.1M) - Curators: MEV Capital ($17.6M) app.silo.finance/markets/avalan… Sonic: xUSD/USDC, xUSD/scUSD - $2.3M scUSD, $4M USDC - Curators: Mithras ($2.3M), Varlamore ($1.6M) app.silo.finance/markets/sonic/… app.silo.finance/markets/sonic/… MORPHO: Plume: The Elixir Market: - 68M USDC borrowed - Lender: Elixir Arbitrum: xUSD/USDC - 628k USDC - Curator: MEV Capital app.morpho.org/arbitrum/marke… GEARBOX: Plasma: Invariant Group USDT0 - 72.45k xUSD. This market had a LOT more xUSD, but it was all exited. GGWP, @GearboxProtocol! app.gearbox.finance/pools/9745/0x7… ENCLABS: Sonic: 4.21M xUSD, about $2.4M in exposure? Plasma: 150k xUSD, about $160k in exposure? Again, there might be more, this is all we found.
Stream Finance@StreamDefi

Yesterday, an external fund manager overseeing Stream funds disclosed the loss of approximately $93 million in Stream fund assets. In response, Stream is in the process of engaging Keith Miller and Joseph Cutler of the law firm Perkins Coie LLP, to lead a comprehensive investigation into the incident. We are actively withdrawing all liquid assets and expect this process to be completed in the near term To keep our stakeholders informed, we will provide periodic updates as additional information becomes available. Until we are able to fully assess the scope and causes of the loss, all withdrawals and deposits will be temporarily suspended. Any pending deposits will not be processed at this time. Our decision to retain Perkins Coie LLP reflects Stream’s unwavering commitment to transparency and robust corporate governance.

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chainsage
chainsage@cryptovishal7·
PENDLE : World's largest crypto yield trading protocol, with over $7B TVL followed with 80B in trading volume, Know what is driving user's attention towards $PENDLE : PENDLE's 3 major catalyst - 1. Yields are the backbone of Defi, so y'all know where there is term "YIELD" @pendle_fi will be there too. 2. V2 helps other protocols for bootstraping TVL, recent $1B tvl on @Plasma is more than enough for a proof. 3. @boros_fi which brings a new concept, currently in a alpha position few could understand it and are making good profits like @pendle_grandma, boros scales yield and rates everywhere allowing funding rates to be tradable onchain. pic - @artemis
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Ye Su
Ye Su@allen_su1024·
很多朋友询问,一同答复下。 ArkStream不仅没有停手,今年还募了一支新基金。Crypto VC不是没了,而是市场环境变了,我们做出了很大的战略改变。 一是从单独只做出资人,开始联合上下游一起为项目方全方面赋能的VC+投行模式。 二是投资类型不限于早期token,我们今年投了不少Liquid deal和股权。 熟悉我们的都知道,我们不变的是行业信仰,在打法上从来讲究不拘一格。从2017年到现在,始终在创新前端浪遏飞舟,故曰ArkStream。
TechFlow 深潮|APP 已上线@TechFlowPost

x.com/i/article/1978…

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RayC@ray_crypto·
@TroveMarkets Hey, can you share an invite code? Thanks!
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TROVE
TROVE@TroveMarkets·
The Future of Collectible Perpetuals is nearly here Trove Beta goes live soon - early access is limited Join us now: trovemarkets.com Need an invite code? Reply below
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G | Ethena
G | Ethena@gdog97_·
While we share these suggestions privately with any partner we work with across both DeFi and CeFi, want to surface this publicly so there is zero doubt going forward on what we view as appropriate oracle design and risk management for USDe:
G | Ethena tweet media
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RayC
RayC@ray_crypto·
@bruceblue 看到了满满的心酸和血泪,真不容易
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Astra Nova
Astra Nova@Astra__Nova·
Entertainment is being rebuilt. By players, creators, and AI. Welcome to Astra Nova The world's first AI Entertainment Ecosystem ✨ 🔸 Built on intelligence 🔸 Powered by live products 🔸 Fueled by $RVV 💠 Explore Our Ecosystem: 🕹️ TokenPlay.ai – Launch viral, monetizable Web3 games in minutes. No code. All AI. 🧬 ARPG – UE5 + AI NPCs in a playable sci-fi epic 📖 NovaToon – Interactive comics that evolve 🎯 BlackPass – SocialFi quests + loyalty rewards ⚔️ Deviants Fight Club – Telegram PvP casual game. The era of passive entertainment is over. Play. Build. Own the future. 🌐 Step Inside → hub.xyz/astranova
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TokenPlay.ai
TokenPlay.ai@TokenplayAI·
Build. Launch. Monetize. 🕹️ Turn your community into an arcade — in seconds. ⚡ No code. AI-powered. Welcome to TokenPlay.ai 🚨 250K+ have already joined the waitlist — don’t miss your chance! Loading ■■■■▢▢▢▢▢▢
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Ye Su
Ye Su@allen_su1024·
北京时间9月18号凌晨2点,所有人都要Mark住这个时间点!这就是万众瞩目的FOMC议息会议公布是否降息的第一时点 我们要盯的,就两件事 一、今年内总共降息多少,50bp就是利空,75bp以上就是利好 二、降息不等于完事,后续的净流动性更重要 一、先来看下目前信号有哪些: 1、就业很弱:BLS 把过去一年就业数据一次性下修了 91 万,现在月度新增也只有 2 万多,失业率在 4.3% 徘徊。说明就业动能掉档。 2、通胀正在回落:PPI同比 2.6%(预期 3.3%,前值 3.3%),核心 PPI 2.8%(预期 3.5%,前值3.7%)。明显低于预期,未来可能向消费端传导 3、利率市场反应:短期利率(2 年期国债)过去两个月下行至 3.5% 附近,长期利率(10年国债)仍在 4%左右,出现 10Y > 2Y 的牛式陡峭 按目前的信号来看,降息是板上钉钉,部分降息预期已经price in,所以市场对降息的要求会更加苛刻,目前博弈点是今年内究竟能降多少,到时要第一时间看点阵图,以6月份的FOMC点阵图为例(下图),1个点代表1个议员投票,看票数最多的一行是多少,现利率是4.25-4.5%,也就是说,预期到3.75-4%是利空,3.5-3.75%往下是利好 二、降息不等于行情续命,重点看场内水位 个人觉得Crypto之所以这么关注降息,很大原因是有2020年的降息牛前例,也是币圈有史以来第一次遇上降息事件(上一次是07-08年的次贷危机了),导致有些人的主观印象是“降息=牛市开启”,但实际情况是: 19年经济放缓+贸易战冲击,三次各25bp降息,对Crypto并没有救市作用,美股也仅仅是温和上涨 20年,在新冠疫情的背景下,美股多次熔断,就业市场突然冻结,美债流动性危机,于是3月3紧急会议,降息50bp(1.75% → 1.25%),3月15再次紧急行动,直接降息 100bp(1.25% → 0–0.25%) 注意!到这里为止,行情并没有变化,真正拐点出现在3月23: QE无限量化+大规模财政刺激(CARES)之后,(简单解释就是美联储印钱买国债,给老百姓每人发1200美金,给失业、中小企业、医院、州政府等各种撒钱行为),这才让美债与信用市场恢复,净流动性暴增,美股与加密同步反转。 懂了吗,重点不是降息,而是有没有净流动性,利率降了不等于市场有流动性。 所以,18号要看点阵图,看预期总共能降多少bp;后续看净流动性,关注央行缩表是否暂停、财政供给是否缓和、美元是否走弱、稳定币与 ETF 是否持续扩张。
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RayC@ray_crypto·
@allen_su1024 稳定币+crypto方面,ethena 还是那么专业和全面
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Ye Su@allen_su1024·
补充下Ethena USDH 的提案,笑死,看完后第一感觉,这就是一场“又有钱、又肯花心思、还真心爱你”的霸总求婚戏码。 真的很有意思,整个提案全是“小心机”,$800/point 这个内部梗,不混 HL 社区基本不知道,(HL的计价单位是point,社区算过如果HL收入模型跑通,2030年收入$6B,对应价值锚点就是$800/point);HIP-3 更是 HL 的核心规划,不深耕的人根本提不出来。现在连其他竞标 $USDH 的团队都在临时补课,真花心思了呀, @ethena 提案非常踏实,三条现金流主线算得清清楚楚: - Crypto Perps:假设费率 2.14bps,交易量从 $4.5T → $12.2T,收入 $1B → $2.6B。 - USDH 稳定币:TVL $5.4B → $14.6B,NIM 4.3%→2.5%,收入 $0.23B → $0.36B。 - Equity Perps:HL 市占从 15% → 75%,费率 3bps,对应收入 $0.23B → $3B。 合计下来,到 2030 年收入 $6B,对应估值 $178B(哪怕给个保守 P/E 30x)。这就call back刚提到社区口中的 $800/point 另外,Ethena 把迁移成本、流动性、库存支持都摊开: 迁移成本:USDC → USDH 的链上搬迁,Ethena全额买单。 共享流动性:USDH 成为 USDe 储备资产后,给做市商开 低费直兑通道,对接 $5B+ 储备池,保证无折价、不卡深度。 表内资金支持:Ethena 手上 $13B USDe,可作为 HL 永续市场对手盘/库存,直接给 HIP-3 市场兜底。 一句话:“我养你啊!” Ethena 在 HIP-3 上的态度很明显: 就是 all in ! 合作伙伴:投了 @BasedOneX@liminalmoney 一起孵 hUSDe,还把 @unitxyz 拉进来做现货承接。 激励规模:一口气准备 $75M → $150M 激励,HIP-3 的费收入一半回流 HL。 打法三件套:带收益抵押品、模块化主券商层、股权永续。 这套打法有先例:@Bybit_Official 的 $USDe 组合保证金+补贴,能做到 ~13% APY,把用户黏在交易所。Ethena 明摆着要把这套搬到 HL,复制甚至放大。 最后是制度:Guardian 网络(验证者治理安全),≥95% 收益回流 HL(HYPE 回购、基金池、stHYPE 分配可治理决定),发行方拿额外 5% 还要承诺买 $HYPE 。 果然啊,真诚是必杀技,人家意思很明确:我有钱,我懂你,你站那就行我来找你,拒绝我也没事,我永远在你身后哈哈哈
Ye Su@allen_su1024

上周五,@HyperliquidX 在 Discord 丢了个大招:USDH 稳定币 众所周知,市场已经对stablecoin去魅 但是!这次不一样,HL在尝试把闲置的54亿USDC变现,用于回购和分配 $hype 简单说,就两件事: 1、把稳定币利差反哺给平台币。桥里躺着54亿USDC,光利息年化就3.6亿美金。USDH会把这笔钱直接变成HYPE回购和分配。 2、收回主权信用。@circle 的USDC能冻结地址,铸币权不在自己手里。USDH逻辑就是把发行和控制权牢牢拉回HL。 这一次 USDH 的公开竞标,也是各路稳定币顶级玩家的舞台。目前五家: @Paxos :合规老炮。背靠@PayPal / @Venmo / @RobinhoodApp ,承诺把95%收益拿去回购HYPE,自己只留一点点。监管加持+机构渠道。 @fraxfinance :DeFi派,打法最激进。最新方案直接把USDH的治理全交给HYPE投票,底层收益100%返还,不留利润,彻底社区化 withAUSD(@raincards × @LayerZero_Labs):联盟派。设计是100%收益回购HYPE,但托管交给@StateStreet,管理交给 @vaneck_us,首日还要打1000万美金流动性。 @ethena :金融工程派。没急着亮底牌,但市场都懂他们衍生品+稳定币的组合拳。USDe + USDH,如果跑通,就能把对冲和收益捕捉一起解决。 @Native_Markets:生态黑马。创始人是Uniswap前COO Max Lader团队,帮忙孵化过Hyperion。收益一半给生态基金,一半用于USDH 增长(激励前线应用、HIP-3 市场、HyperEVM 项目推动 adoption)。 这场竞标不是产品PK,而是制度路线之争: 合规 vs 社区 vs 联盟 vs 金融工程 vs 黑马 谁赢,就决定HL未来叙事。 试想下,一旦跑通,币价飞轮,各赛道竞相模仿,就可能催生新赛道:SBGT (Stable-backed Governance Token)。 - 过去币圈大多靠炒作,产品好不好不重要; - 就算真有高使用率和真实用户,价值也很难传导到币价。 USDH 的特别之处在于:它能把协议使用率和代币价格直接挂钩。一旦成功,其他项目一定会跟进,可能给 crypto 掀起一轮“去泡沫化”风潮。

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Ye Su
Ye Su@allen_su1024·
Congrats to Stablecoin on the new $530M PIPE raise. From our talks w/ StablecoinX, this isn’t just another DAT — it’s an outstanding coin + equity fusion vehicle: - MASSIVE $895M size, even bigger than any Solana DATs now - Unlike many OTC altcoin DATs (e.g. $ALT5), this raise goes straight into market buybacks of $ENA. - Backed by an elite leadership team including @HadickM @KyleSamani @nic_carter etc More to come.
Ethena@ethena

StablecoinX Inc. @stablecoin_x has announced an additional $530 million capital raise as part of its $ENA accumulation strategy. To date, StablecoinX has raised a total of approximately $895M in PIPE financing, which is expected to result in a vehicle with over 3 billion ENA tokens on its balance sheet at closing. This enhanced scale enables greater access to additional institutional channels, broader investor and third-party coverage, and the capacity to hire top tier leadership. As with the initial PIPE raise, the cash raised via the PIPE will be used by StablecoinX to acquire tokens from a subsidiary of the Ethena Foundation. The Ethena Foundation subsidiary will initiate an approximately $310 million buyback program over the next 6-8 weeks via third party market makers, reinforcing the alignment between the Foundation and StablecoinX shareholders. The expected deployment rate of purchases is outlined in the section below this tweet, and is incremental to the buyback program from the initial PIPE financing transaction which has now been completed. At current prices, the planned buyback program of this second PIPE transaction combined with the liquid ENA contributed to the PIPE by third party investors represents roughly 13% of circulating supply. This is in addition to the initial PIPE financing which resulted in the acquisition of approximately 7.3% of circulating token supply over the last 6 weeks. Importantly, as with the initial PIPE raise, the Ethena Foundation has the right to veto any sales of $ENA by StableCoinX at its sole discretion. Once again, to the extent StablecoinX subsequently raises capital with the intent of purchasing additional locked ENA from the Ethena Foundation or its affiliates, cash proceeds from those token sales are planned to be used to purchase spot $ENA. StablecoinX's treasury strategy is a deliberate, multi‑year capital allocation strategy that will enables StablecoinX to capture the enormous value of the secular surge in demand for digital dollars while compounding ENA per share to the benefit of shareholders.

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ArkStream Capital
ArkStream Capital@ark_stream·
We are pleased to announce that ArkStream Capital has made an additional investment of USD 10 million in @ethena in August 2025, building on our initial USD 5 million investment in December 2024 as part of our long-term strategy. This increased commitment reflects our strong recognition of Ethena’s structured breakthroughs across both product development and capital markets. What drives our conviction is not only the explosive growth in metrics, but also Ethena’s institutional innovation in capital markets.
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