
Ryan Shank
6.8K posts


@A_LastingLegacy should be 3x cash flow MAX. Prob more like 2-2.5x.
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

Biggest CEO hack: healthy competition.
Put ur ppl on a leaderboard. Gamify everything.
Got someone slacking? Pair em with a high performer. Make it a race.
Bonuses help. Incentives help.
But nothing hits like the raw urge to not lose.
U can throw $50K at motivation.
Or make ppl want to beat each other for free.
Better results. Zero cost.
Am I wrong?
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

Private Equity is going further down market, bidding up prices
Lost a <$1m EBITDA HVAC deal to a PE firm willing to pay ~7x all cash at close
Another broker sent me a small tuck in HVAC company expecting 4x+ on ~$250k EBITDA
Independents are getting daily inquiries from PE firms and the ones that do sell are getting healthy multiples, even small assets
Even the micro market (<$500k EBITDA) has seen a lift in multiples due to PE’s intense competition in the space, as noted above
A guess a rising tide does in fact lift all boats
But it’s making it harder to find a good, small company at a reasonable price

Will Schryver@Will_Schryver
~7x cash at close for an HVAC company generating <$1 million EBITDA ~20% new construction ~0% growth in 3 years Private Equity has the resources to make a deal like this pencil But I do not
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده
Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

PE ran out of big companies to buy. So they're coming for Main Street.
This mass consolidation is bad for our country.
> Heavy debt risks reputations built over decades.
> Local wealth gets shipped to Greenwich.
> Customers get worse service at higher prices.

Bloomberg@business
Small-business owners say they’re fending off sometimes multiple inquiries a day from investment bankers and private equity firms bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

Small-business owners say they’re fending off sometimes multiple inquiries a day from investment bankers and private equity firms bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

Now we start everyone Monday team meeting with our AI VP of Marketing "10K" leading the meeting
10K leads the meeting:
- Revenue for week
- Goals for week
- Projects all pipeline
- Designs all campaigns and activities for week
- Dynamically updates all metrics and goals
It's a "1x" app we build on @Replit just for us. But we would have paid $20k+ if it existed off-the-shelf.
That's the opportunity, and threat, in SaaS today.
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده
Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

Private Equity’s investment thesis in rolling up home services in one chart
Top right quadrant in the chart is the ideal position
Services in the top right will have the highest valuation
Highly critical service with high frequency of demand

Will Schryver@Will_Schryver
Private equity is going all in on HVAC Notable PE-backed HVAC deals: ~18.5x Champions Group (2026) ~17.0x Redwood Services (2025) ~17.0x Sila Services (2024) ~20.0x Goettl (2022) ~16.0x Burton (2021) ~17.0x Southern HVAC (2021) ~16.0x Any Hour (2021) ~16.0x Sila Services (2021) ~15.0x Service Champions (2021) ~16.0x Heartland (2020) ~17.0x TurnPoint (2020)
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Crazy that @Fanatics and @Topps haven’t put the Jack Hughes tooth in a trading card as 1-of-1..
Cc @michaelrubin
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

Ok the investor updates for February are rolling in.
Let me be crystal clear: the ones that have the best AI Agent in their space — for real — have jaw dropping demand and growth. Jaw dropping. Unprecedented. Customers are often being turned away due to not enough FDEs, etc.
And the rest aren’t growing all that much.
There’s not much in the middle.
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

If you are a Saas company, this is a must read from @eoghan.
We just crossed $400m in ARR. That chart is our growth rate, from Saas to AI.
At most, a single handful of companies have completed this transformation.
We are one of them, this is our guide on how to do it.
p.s. *please share it* with everyone you know working in Saas, it will undoubtedly help them chart their course!
Eoghan McCabe@eoghan
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@ViperPrompt I mean usually you get a discount if you agree to a massive multi year deal. So a 50% discount for a $100b deal isn’t crazy (Amazon “invests” $50b and OpenAI spends $100b).
No shade but it’s just a discount on a massive deal with maybe some warrants and other contingencies.
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Yep. I suspect the SoftBank money will land in OAI's checking account, but the rest of it will never ACTUALLY change hands: it will be traded for hardware and services.
I don't see anything wrong with this per se, but the headlines are overstating the deal in the sense that this deal won't extend OAI's runway all that much.
I expect that only the two Titans (Google and xAI) will be standing at the end of 2026. Anthropic might leak into 2027 but eventually they won't be able to punch above their weight... leaving just Google and xAI. IMO. Worth what you paid for it, lol.
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@toddsaunders U got rich and just be doing the most random shit (I say w the utmost jealousy)
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Ryan Shank أُعيد تغريده

@danprimack Do you think they do a test transaction before wiring like $50 billion?
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@ViperPrompt Sounds like this is actually a pretty big BD deal with a lot of contingencies. I wouldn’t be surprised if not a lot of cash was exchanged .

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@ryanashank Good question. I have had a hard time verifying this supposed raise of 110B today.
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