Scheplick

Chart shows the relative valuation for U.S. value stocks compared to U.S. growth stocks, normalized so that 1.0 represents the median. "Today, value stocks are trading at an approximate 35% discount to their typical relative valuation, a 10th percentile observation vs. history. Value needs to beat growth by almost 55% just to return to historically normal relative valuations." "Even if this abnormally wide valuation spread does not narrow immediately, we believe value can still outperform due to what we call the rebalancing effect. Value benefits as some growth companies disappoint and become cheaper, entering the value index. Value also benefits as some value companies surprise on the upside and get repriced into the growth index." Source: gmo.com/americas/resea…

The owner of the S&P 500 index is licensing the world’s most tracked stock index for the launch of a derivative contract that trades around the clock on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid on.wsj.com/4bezxK0

Valuation spreads (how cheaply value stocks trade relative to growth stocks) measured as the Price/Book ratio of value stocks divided by growth stocks in the US. "On average, US value stocks have traded at a 78% discount (i.e., 22 cents on the dollar) relative to growth stocks over the full five-decade horizon. Yet with the rise of Big Tech in the 2010s, this valuation spread has now widened to historically extreme levels, with value stocks trading at 10 cents on the dollar relative to growth stocks today. This discount is so extreme that even if today’s relative valuation of cheap stocks were to double going forward, we would only be returning to the long-term average valuation spread in the US. ... US valuation spreads today remain as wide as they were at the end of 2020, when value proceeded to outperform growth by 7.2% annualized over five years. Therefore, we believe it’s reasonable for today’s value investors to assume a similar level of outperformance over the next five years. There is also reason to hope that value outperformance over the next five years could be even greater than 7.2% per year because the value premium peaked at 9–15% annualized during previous clusters of positive value premiums." @verdadcap

xAI is hiring Wall Street bankers, credit analysts, and traders to train Grok on financial modeling, including leveraged loans, distressed debt, MBS, and CLOs. Follows OpenAI and Anthropic releasing finance-focused tools. Surprised credit is getting the attention first but there is a lot more docs/volume there vs the hardest aspect of judgment. The race to own the institutional finance workflow is accelerating and seems to be the top target post.-coding?

TLDR There is no inner self, you're chasing an imaginary concept, the end.

The industrial economy is starting to ramp. Flatbed trucking tender volumes has taken out an all-time high, eclipsing last year's steel and aluminum tariff pull forward. This is what the early innings of a manufacturing renaissance should look like: strong, surging flatbed volumes

Great men of history had little to no introspection. The personality that builds empires is not the same personality that sits around quietly questioning itself. @pmarca and I discuss what we both noticed but no one talks about: David: You don't have any levels of introspection? Marc: Yes, zero. As little as possible. David: Why? Marc: Move forward. Go! I found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past. It's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home. David: So I've read 400 biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs and someone asked me what the most surprising thing I’ve learned from this was [and I answered] they have little or zero introspection. Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up and was like: I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts. And he just kept doing it over and over again. Marc: If you go back 400 years ago it never would've occurred to anybody to be introspective. All of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy, and all the things that kind of result from that are, a kind of a manufacture of the 1910s, 1920s. Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff. The individual runs and does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology. And then this kind of this kind of guilt based whammy kind of showed up from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in 1910, 1920s, Freud and all that entire movement. And kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to basically second guess the individual. We need to criticize the individual. The individual needs to self criticize. The individual needs to feel guilt, needs to look backwards, needs to dwell in the past. It never resonated with me.

Donations totaling more than $750,000 have poured in to help an elderly DoorDash driver resume retirement, after doorbell camera footage of him carefully bringing an order to a home in Manchester, Tennessee, was shared online in an attempt to find him.

@pinkhasov Congrats and I will check it out!

Good news, our funds will be available on IBKR marketplace soon. Qualified investors only.

NVIDIA finally back below 10% on $QQQ but still nearly 50% of the entire ETF remains in just 10 companies of which 5 are directly impacted by AI

Naturally the market does not like this because everyone has been YOLO'ing into Microsoft for the last 5 years and it remains one of the highest weighted stocks across all indexes and ETFs. It has been coming down as of recently, but that concentration has now been shifted to NVIDIA in an aggressive way. The tech sector just won't be able to grind higher until we get some rebalancing and these indexes and ETFs have to stop holding 10%-15% of the entire fund in a single tech stock. It's borderline insane.

One of those things that has to change with the rise of AI and webscrappers is the sheer federal law around people's phone numbers being easily shared on giant data scraping websites. It probably makes sense to nuke all of those data scraping websites as soon as possible and create a new law for that stuff and add some safe guards around public records on the Internet in general

Freight from the midwest and rustbelt have been on fire, while the coastal cities have been very quiet. SONAR has been picking this up for the past two months - and it is a massive shift from the freight economy of the last few decades. We talked about this on State of Freight last week x.com/FreightWaves/s…

A statement from Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei, on our discussions with the Department of War. anthropic.com/news/statement…

Hi Claude, build me the Renaissance Medallion Fund with better returns and less risk , don't make any mistakes

@BushwoodCap People are not interested in this kind of incredibly clear thinking, but I'll reshare it anyways in case it helps

Block layoffs will be "AI doom porn," but an obvious truth is that insane Covid hiring and general incompetence from a Jack Dorsey-led org have more to do with this. Block went from 3,700 employees in Dec. 2019 to 12,200 employees in Dec. 2022.

A defining show

This is an extreme spike in the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – Flatbed (STRIF.USA) from 2018–2026. A 40% rejection rate means: * Strong industrial throughput * Tight labor + equipment capacity * Improving pricing power in physical economy * Early/mid expansion phase dynamics It usually leads: * ISM new orders * Regional manufacturing surveys * Industrial earnings revisions When flatbed rejection spikes above 30%: * 6–12 months later, industrial earnings acceleration typically follows. * Small and mid caps tend to outperform in the next regime phase.

This is what the early signs of an manufacturing renaissance looks like: Flatbeds on fire, surging to all time highs. Van and reefer freight staying strong, but not seeing the same surge we see in flatbeds.

Flatbed rejection rates are on fire to 40%. Flatbeds are breaking out above previous records that were broken in 2021, the height of COVID. This is an extremely bullish indicator for heavy industrial and manufacturing activity in the economy.