will.js

kinda de-escalatory if your base case is us/israel are in full agreement about everything x.com/tradfi/status/…

they are pre-signaling attacks again

Some thoughts from a completely unqualified mind: - US & Israel both confirmed they don't think a regime change is likely - Iranian ambassador to the UN has said they don't plan to block or mine the Strait (h/t @Crypto_Noddy) - Bessent & Trump both say they don't think the mining has happened, as in - even if it did, nobody's accusing anybody of it, and nobody will be held accountable if there's a path of least resistance. Something to consider - when the US & Israel struck nuclear sites last year, bombed apartment buildings and took out nuke scientists/engineers - Iran postured for revenge but in reality, pre-signaled their attacks to save face and ultimately, de-escalated. Maybe this has changed with a new, younger Ayatollah - but they are not operating from a position of strength or stamina - Moreso, what creates the largest market reaction. What if the market stops reacting? Oil moves, equity moves are blunted just a week into this. To me, this 'excursion' feels like it's a singular tweet/truth away from completely unwinding to the upside -- I'm not convinced Iran wants to carry this out to the death of their recently elected leader, and I think Trump welcomes a somewhat cordial exit he can sell to his base. Until that happens it's anybody's guess - but Trump is under a lot of pressure to quickly exit, he's already narrowed the scope of the operation and has complete authority to say "ok, we've achieved what we wanted to, it's a good time to buy stocks and short oil, let's focus on midterms with now 9 wars ended"

$NET now 40% up in nearly a straight line, big spike on news today and it's getting a bit extended from moving avgs - going to close out calls and just hang onto shares LT. thread done x.com/tradfi/status/…

$NET out weeklies in full sold half the remaining swing at HOD here excellent trade heading into this uncertain weekend

As a Cloudflare user, I'll look to get long before their summit on Thursday now that it's -18% in 2 days on "ANTHROPIC SAYS: ...." $NET #lotto

@0x8483 @Crypto_Noddy I don’t think it is up to Israel

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy There doesn’t need to be that kind of escalation for the war to become an end in itself in the form of a prolonged low intensity conflict. Iran and Israel can also choose not to let him out that easily.

@0x8483 @Crypto_Noddy it's true but in my mind the only escalation left is 1) ground invasion or 2) bombing heavily populated civilian centers call me an optimist, but I think these are both deeply unpopular moves and they know it

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy Or

Not having a clear target means victory can be claimed at any time without his mouth breather base seeing it as a humiliation Israel sees this as existential - I don't think trump/the US sees it the same way. debilitating their nuclear infra "for a long time" + the "destruction" of their military, navy, whatever else he's claiming daily - is an acceptable outcome barring a regime change (that's probably not happening)

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy They have no clear target of what they want to achieve, it’s all vague and contradictory, apparently not fully aligned with Israel, and the goalposts keep moving.

@based16z it's kinda funny, tech companies doing broad layoffs have the perfect excuse to deflect from ai fears -- "we over-hired during covid"

OpenAI and anthropic are worth about 50% of meta each with 1/20 the employees. So maybe meta needs to cut 90% of ppl.

@Sparkle_Shark @Crypto_Noddy same as it ever was

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy Smells like cope

Happy to unveil our first major update since launch: TradFi Terminal v2.1 We added new tools for research, journaling, AI, charting, automation, deep customization across the terminal, plus dozens of QoL and performance improvements. More info below ⬇️

@giangosfit news was 7:30pm est, post-market trading ends at 8:00pm est

@willoptions Market was closed by the time it was posted. How did you trade this? Using hyperliquid?

This has been tweeted to death this weekend but I have a position- $HIMS turned out to be an unexpected banger to end an already incredible week and I'm holding onto it. - Market priced in expensive, drawn-out litigation + risk of the entire GLP-1 segment getting shut down - 40% of the float is held short, at Friday's close that is near $1.5B notional, of which only 4% was unwound (assuming every transaction after the news timestamp was short covering - it wasn't) - News was released just 30 minutes prior to the end of the post-market session going into the weekend. It was past 1am in Europe. Very few traders participated - There's not many other attractive longs out there besides oil My base case is upside capitulation as 6 months of comfortable shorts unwind into a narrative that has completely shifted. Lots of retail buzz around a squeeze. This trade was made possible with @pvpterminal, and @tradfi posted the news 13 minutes before any other notable news accounts.

@TremendousNukes @tradfi hop on @pvpterminal

@tradfi Of course they announce this shit on the weekend man fmcl

*NOVO AND HIMS PLAN TO ANNOUNCE PARTNERSHIP AS SOON AS MONDAY *NOVO TO SELL ITS WEIGHT-LOSS DRUGS ON HIMS PLATFORM $NVO $HIMS

@giangosfit $NET was a good one, I mostly trade news

@willoptions Any signal these days bro?

obviously no signal here, but just to put this move into perspective - embedded leverage is a motherfucker

@jackschwager looking forward to it

I have just approved the audio recording of Stock Market Wizards for production. I think the new narrator did an excellent job. SMW is the only MW book without a currently available audio format. It now goes through ACX quality check, which they say takes about 10 business days. It will then be available on Audible, Amazon, and iTunes.

lol now that's some comedic timing